Danielle a hurricane; TD 7 forming off coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2010

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Hurricane Danielle has stopped intensifying and is now looking a bit ragged this morning, but remains a respectable Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The intensity of Danielle's heavy thunderstorms has waned in the past few hours, and the organization of the storm is less impressive. This is probably due do strong upper-level winds out of the west that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and injecting some of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that surrounds Danielle. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, but is far from any land areas.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and the forming Tropical Depression Seven (right side of image.)

Forecast for Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Danielle more to the northwest by Wednesday, keeping Danielle well to the east of Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but it currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm. History suggests that a storm in Danielle's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast. If Danielle passes east of Bermuda, as forecast, these percentages drop to less than 5%. As far as intensity goes, it is looking unlikely that Danielle will attain major hurricane status (115+ mph winds.) There is enough dry air and wind shear affecting the storm today that it will take several days for the storm to recover its strength, making it less likely the storm can hit Category 3.

The formation of Danielle is remarkable in this it was successfully forecast by the GFS model nearly two weeks in advance. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models also did a good job of predicting Danielle's formation a week in advance. The models are getting better and better each year at forecasting genesis of tropical cyclones, though a successful 1-week forecast of genesis is still a rarity. For example, none of the models foresaw the development of 96L until just 3 - 4 days ago.


Figure 2. Plot showing historically the percent chance of a tropical cyclone in a given location impacting the U.S. East Coast. For storms in Danielle's current position (orange hurricane symbol), about 20% of them go on to hit the U.S. East Coast. For storms in 96L's current location (red circle with a "?" in it), the odds are also 20%. Image credit: Bob Hart, Florida State University.

96L (soon to be Tropical Depression Seven)
Satellite images suggests that a tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday morning has developed a closed circulation, low-level spiral bands, and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. While this morning's ASCAT pass does not show a clear closed circulation, satellite estimates of 96L's strength support calling this a 30 mph tropical depression. It is likely that this storm will be designated Tropical Depression Seven later today. 96L is already bringing heavy rain and strong, gusty winds to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Winds were sustained at 26 mph at Mindelo in the northwest Cape Verde Islands this morning, and 24 mph at Praia, the station closest to the center of 96L. Both stations were reporting widespread dust, due to strong winds blowing Saharan dust from the coast of Africa. However, water vapor satellite images show that only a modest amount of dry air is accompanying this dust, and dry air is currently not a major detriment to 96L. Wind shear is about 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are warm, 28°C.

Forecast for 96L/Tropical Depression Seven
Wind shear is predicted to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next four days. SSTs will cool a bit to 27°C by Thursday, but this is still above the 26.5°C threshold for hurricane development. Dry air will probably be the main inhibiting factor for 96L. Most of the intensity forecast models bring 96L to hurricane strength by four days from now, and this is a reasonable forecast. 96L should become Tropical Storm Earl later today or on Wednesday, and will probably bring sustained winds of 40 mph to the southernmost Cape Verdes Islands tonight and Wednesday.

The long range fate of 96L remains unclear. The storm is being steering by the same ridge of high pressure steering Danielle, and will initially follow a track similar to Danielle. 96L may encounter the cold waters stirred up by Danielle at times this week, inhibiting development. As 96L approaches the central Atlantic five days from now, the storm will encounter the same mid-Atlantic trough that will be steering Danielle, and 96L should turn more to the northwest. It is unclear at this point whether this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve 96L out to sea, east of Bermuda. This will, in part, depend upon how strong Danielle gets. A stronger Danielle is likely to create more of a break in the ridge of high pressure steering 96L, encouraging the storm to turn north and recurve out to sea. A weaker Danielle will make 96L more likely to miss recurvature, and follow a track to the west or west-northwest towards the U.S. East Coast early next week. History suggests that a storm in 96L's current location has only a 20% chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast.

When will the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico get active?
The large scale atmospheric circulation over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico currently features relatively dry, stable, sinking air. This is due, in part, to the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The latest MJO forecast from the GFS model calls for the wet phase of the MJO to move into the Caribbean during the first week of September. However, keep in mind that forecasts of MJO activity 1 - 2 weeks in advance are not very skillful. The GFS model forecast of MJO activity made two weeks ago did fairly well for the first week, but poorly for the second week of the forecast.

Tropical Storm Frank spares Mexico
Over in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has moved away the coast far enough from the Mexican coast to no longer pose a heavy rainfall threat, and all tropical storm warnings have been dropped.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog during the show. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. I'll focus on Danielle, Earl, and Frank, and discuss the possibilities of a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane period coming during the first week of September.

Today's show will be 30 - 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

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2847. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


Greetings and salutations my friend, left you a Happy Birthday gift on Orca's blog the other day, post 822 if I remember correctly, however, due to the fact that I am 1 year older than you, don't hold me to that exact post number, my short term memory is not what it once was. :( The good news is that I am still one year younger than Grothar!!! :)

Good Grief!
Between You, Me, and Grothar, our accumulated years defy all understanding.
You would think that some would show us a little Respect around here.
LOL
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Seriously, no more talk about food this morning *whine* Normally I don't mind it, but I had to skip brekkie this morning and I'm afraid the rumbling of my stomach's going to set off the seismographs in the surrounding tri-state area.
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Quoting LongGlassTube:


She got to that point on the globe but you can tell by the twists and turns of the COE that it is not the predicted track.
Link


That is as good as it gets. The NHC does an excellent job for the most part. Your really concerned with twists and turns?
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2844. smuldy
Umm ok I left for 30 minutes to watch Warren the Ape and all hell broke loose on the blog, I was obviously not being serious. Danielle is well west of 40w, and is likely an immediate threat to Bermuda no matter what the models do or do not say. Great, it is turning north, finally. 24 hours ago nhc was saying it was 12 hours before it turned, and now it IS turning. Bermuda needs to watch out as does NJ and north. Will it hit? Maybe not, but could it? Absolutely. ESPECIALLY to those in Bermuda, it is only the small size of your island that keeps you from being a likely hit, you should feel the effects and despite any nocturnal waning this is likely to come up again and effect you. As for anyone wanting to tell us what future Earl may do, models are models, they didn't exactly nail the first 40w turn 5 days out, and Danielle is not likely to be the monster major they are still showing, nevermind the size of the storm they project, and that will greatly effect the overall synoptic presence any future Earl may encounter. Danielle isn't going to miss FL-SC because of it's lat now, it is likely to miss because of the pattern, which it's speed, exact turn, size and strength will greatly influence for the next CV storm to follow. So please remain watchful, observe what is actually going on, and frankly both need to avoid wishcasting. If you say it will avoid you, but it is heading towards you, it won't avoid you. And if you somehow want a big storm to hit, it won't make it so either. A fish is not a fish until it is 3-5 days away from any land. Some sanity here would be nice, and for all the ST about the night crew, it seems like less wishing and more honest questions and best attempts happen there. There are some great minds here now, if you don't have a grasp, ask. Avoid serious attempts at one line forecasts, because if it can be put into one line it is not serious. And on that note, I am off to lurk mode and bed. Everyone have a good day, I expect Danielle to be well into her turn, slowed, and at moderate strength when I get back in 10ish hours for anyone that wants to actually debate my best guess forecast.
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Good Morning WU...

Very unusual rain event last night...constant rain from approximatly 12:00am to 03:30 this morning...moderate to heavy thunderstorms. Very small scale system however, none-the-less recorded 5.10 inches of rain.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can you guys plz stop stoping that you guys are now this has a annyoing has jason is am sorry but you you and DestinJeff are now on my Ignore


me DOOM then. {weeps uncontrollably}
Leggo my Ego!
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Quoting NovaScotia33:
Hey people- long time lurker, first time poster. Let me say that I for one absolutely appreciate the wealth of knowledgeable people we have on this board. And yes, there is a diversity of opinion. But does that mean that we should blindly follow everything that the NHC says and just assume it is true? I believe that this board is all about good, sound debate. But what I have witnessed lately is far from "debate". At times it seems that I have stumbled upon a group of 5 year olds fighting over a piece of candy. We need to stop worrying so much about who was "right". It is easy to sit on the fence and not make a prediction, and then criticise those that do when they are wrong. Just my opinion.
And, for the record, please remember your Canadian neighbours when you say "fish storm". I remember being on one of these boards in 2003 when everyone said "fish storm" and we in Halifax got a direct hit from Juan. Peace to my good American neighbours.


Good luck this season. I personally hate the term "Fish Storm." There are people who have a probability of being impacted by this storm. It is upsetting to see how little regard there is when storms are not impacting the US. I remember 2007 being called a "Bust Year" because no majors hit the US. Two freaking CAT 5 storms hit the Americas that year. The human suffering was dire in that "Bust Year."
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2836. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:
Post 2794.
Always good to see a new handle.
But I am not sure what to make of your post.
Dont be concerned, its' probably just me..
Good thing you have a Big Bag!!
I got 1.78".
The Word of The Day is,,,,,,,,

MUD !!


Greetings and salutations my friend, left you a Happy Birthday gift on Orca's blog the other day, post 822 if I remember correctly, however, due to the fact that I am 1 year older than you, don't hold me to that exact post number, my short term memory is not what it once was. :( The good news is that I am still one year younger than Grothar!!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lurker here, no talk about food. I'm already deep in cube city with no easy avenue to food for another 3 hours. -.-
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Quoting StormW:


No. I hadn't


as in you hadn't thought about it or it is not a possibility???
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Quoting SFlKatCane5:


Let's just all hope you are totally and completely 100% right on this prognostication!




can you guys plz stop stoping that you guys are now this has a annyoing has jason is am sorry but you you and DestinJeff are now on my Ignore
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2831. pottery
Quoting sailingallover:

The NHC has been very accurate overall this year...with D the models have been amazing.
It is hard for us humans to do as well a a super computer model than can analyze and process 20 or so variables along with their effects over distances based on functions and differential equations over each square kilometer of the earth.
I'm not even going to try to second guess the GFS anymore unless it's a cusp situation like Alex's track after the Yucatan was...
I have watched the models be right wave after wave this year and my life depends on it

I can Respect that.
Good post.
But the Game is, to try to come up with a scenario that is different to the NHC, so we can say "I told you so! I am Fabulous!"
And since it is Weather, sometimes we get it right.........
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Has anyone thought there is the possibility that Danielle and Earl will get close enough to each other to cause the (cant remember the name about rotating around each other) affect and will cause both of the storms at one time or another ot move westward and then southward and cause an impact on US that way
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Darn you, Nrti, and your details! I spent all that time cherry-picking the data, and you go and ruin it with actual analysis.

Must say though that that first advisory has performed throughout.

THAT'S IT! From now on, we get one advisory from the NHC.


This website tracks forecast accuracy.
2010 24 hr cone = 62 nautical miles, OFCL error average = 129.8 91.4 nautical miles.
2010 48 hr cone = 108 nautical miles, OFCL error average = 129.8 nautical miles.

That being said, the NHC is the only agency/forecaster/blogger that I know of that puts out a definitive date/timestamp latitude longitude forecast that actual track can be compared against. One can also compare models, since by default they provide a track forecast.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I tell you what, if some of the things I am looking at verifies then September will be one to remember from Brownsville to Brunswick, Corpus Christie to Cape Cod, New Orleans to New York....

The pattern is such that it is inevitable:

We are all doom.



Let's just all hope you are totally and completely 100% right on this prognostication!

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Quoting Tazmanian:
1st time i seen 100%


I have seen a few 100% this year... I think that every storm that has formed went to 100% before it developed this year except Danielle
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Maybe a renumber in an hour or two, advisories at 11, then.
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2819. 7544
at 11am we should have td 7

this one might get further west imo
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BANDS OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND HURRICANE DANIELLE APPEAR TO
MISS THE LOCAL AREA BUT MOISTURE IS DRAWN OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND EVEN SOUTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT WILL
INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS DEPICTS THIS AREA
OF MOISTURE BEING PULLED BACK OVER THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY DUE TO
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY DO
LIKEWISE LATE NEXT WEEK. BUT THESE LATTER TWO SYSTEMS MUST FORM
FIRST BEFORE ANYTHING CAN BE STATED WITH CONFIDENCE. IN THE
MEANTIME MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE HIGH...WITH SOME STRONG
BANDING NEAR SYSTEMS AND IN TROUGHS CREATED BY THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL CAUSE ABRUPT INCREASES AND
DECREASES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

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Quoting IKE:
TAZ...looks like 96L will be TD7 within hours...or even minutes.


I was wondering why it hasnt been declared except maybe they are waiting till 8 am? It meets criteria.
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Quoting IKE:
TAZ...looks like 96L will be TD7 within hours...or even minutes.



yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

You mean..... they got it RIGHT???
GASP!

The NHC has been very accurate overall this year...with D the models have been amazing.
It is hard for us humans to do as well a a super computer model than can analyze and process 20 or so variables along with their effects over distances based on functions and differential equations over each square kilometer of the earth.
I'm not even going to try to second guess the GFS anymore unless it's a cusp situation like Alex's track after the Yucatan was...
I have watched the models be right wave after wave this year and my life depends on it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS



1st time i seen 100%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
The first image below is from the NHC, that government body that is ridiculously inaccurate with their forecast of Danielle. Note the the dashed line that is to the southwest of the 50W/20N intercept in Advisory #1:

(click image to enlarge)

Now look at this image, also from the NHC, from today at 5am. Note the location of the orange circle with the black dot in it, which also is located to the southwest of the 50W/20N intercept.


Now, please, can we all stipulate that the NHC has pretty much nailed the track for Danielle? The images above may even be considered the peer-reviewed, scientific evidence often called for on the blog to support an opinion.


She got to that point on the globe but you can tell by the twists and turns of the COE that it is not the predicted track.
Link
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2812. IKE
TAZ...looks like 96L will be TD7 within hours...or even minutes.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Out with the old fish, in with the new.


LOL
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2810. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Post 2794.
Always good to see a new handle.
But I am not sure what to make of your post.
Dont be concerned, its' probably just me..
Good thing you have a Big Bag!!
I got 1.78".
The Word of The Day is,,,,,,,,

MUD !!

Lol
correct you are.
I'm out,have a good day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TD 7 is here:
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Member Since: August 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
Hey people- long time lurker, first time poster. Let me say that I for one absolutely appreciate the wealth of knowledgeable people we have on this board. And yes, there is a diversity of opinion. But does that mean that we should blindly follow everything that the NHC says and just assume it is true? I believe that this board is all about good, sound debate. But what I have witnessed lately is far from "debate". At times it seems that I have stumbled upon a group of 5 year olds fighting over a piece of candy. We need to stop worrying so much about who was "right". It is easy to sit on the fence and not make a prediction, and then criticise those that do when they are wrong. Just my opinion.
And, for the record, please remember your Canadian neighbours when you say "fish storm". I remember being on one of these boards in 2003 when everyone said "fish storm" and we in Halifax got a direct hit from Juan. Peace to my good American neighbours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2803. pottery
Post 2794.
Always good to see a new handle.
But I am not sure what to make of your post.
Dont be concerned, its' probably just me..
Quoting DDR:
Hi
Pottery,over 2 inches yesterday
33.6 inches in the bag

Good thing you have a Big Bag!!
I got 1.78".
The Word of The Day is,,,,,,,,

MUD !!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2802. DDR
Hi
Pottery,over 2 inches yesterday
33.6 inches in the bag
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2801. pottery
Post 2794.
Always good to see a new handle.
But I am not sure what to make of your post.
Dont be concerned, its' probably just me..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
The first image below is from the NHC, that government body that is ridiculously inaccurate with their forecast of Danielle. Note the the dashed line that is to the southwest of the 50W/20N intercept in Advisory #1:

(click image to enlarge)

Now look at this image, also from the NHC, from today at 5am. Note the location of the orange circle with the black dot in it, which also is located to the southwest of the 50W/20N intercept.


Now, please, can we all stipulate that the NHC has pretty much nailed the track for Danielle? The images above may even be considered the peer-reviewed, scientific evidence often called for on the blog to support an opinion.


The first forecast has verified well, the next 12 or so not so much. The average error for 12, 24 and 48 hours has been outside the cone.
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2799. smuldy
Quoting LongGlassTube:


Although it appears that Danielle has finally started to turn a little to the north she has ignored the models for quite some time now. It is totally possible for not only a Bermuda hit but also New Foundland. I guess for some anything besides a US impact is a fish.
wow--i was being sarcastic because someone declared everyone clear of all CV storms this season; it is WAY too far out to rule out a hit from future Earl, Danielle will likely effect Bermuda and after that anywhere from jersey to eastern canada needs to watch carefully, if the sarcasm there didn't come across i don't know that it ever can especially given danielle is at 50w now without having turned-jeesh
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.