Danielle forms; extreme heat record for Palestine; south Pakistan flooding worsens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2010

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Tropical Storm Danielle is slowly strengthening over the mid-Atlantic Ocean, and appears destined to become a hurricane by Tuesday. However, Danielle is not a threat to any land areas, and will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. Danielle is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type of storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Danielle is over warm 28°C water, is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and is embedded in a moist environment--conditions which favor intensification into a hurricane by Tuesday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Danielle (left side of image) and a new tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa this morning (right side of image.)

Forecast for Tropical Storm Danielle
A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Storm Danielle more to the northwest by the middle of this week, keeping Danielle well to the east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and Bermuda. Most of the models predict that this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Danielle out to sea. It is possible that Danielle could eventually threaten Newfoundland, Canada, but is currently does not appear that any other land areas will be at risk from this storm.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa this morning, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. Both the ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict this wave will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and will decrease as the storm moves away from the coast of Africa.


Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Storm Frank off the coast of Mexico at 6:15 am EDT 8/23/10. This image from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) shows that most of Frank's heavy rains were offshore this morning, though an associated tropical disturbance was bringing heavy rains in excess of 1.5 inches per hour (white colors) to the Gulf of Mexico coast between Veracruz and Alvarado, Mexico. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Frank may deluge Mexico's Pacific coast
Over in the Eastern Pacific, an 11-day quiet period has ended with the formation of Tropical Storm Frank. Frank is expected to move parallel to the Mexican coast over the next two days, and will bring isolated regions of heavy rain to coastal Mexico. NHC is warning that these rains could accumulate to ten inches in some areas, but there is a good chance that these dangerous flooding rains will remain just offshore. The latest set of computer models have come into better agreement keeping Frank offshore, and it currently appears the the greatest danger to Mexico will come on Tuesday, when the storm is expected to become a hurricane and will be capable of dumping heavy rain on the Acapulco region.

Palestine records its hottest temperature in history
The State of Palestine, the portion of the territories occupied by Israel that declared independence in 1988, recorded its hottest temperature since record keeping began on August 7, 2010, when the temperature hit 51.4°C (124.5°F) at Kibbutz Almog (also called Qalya or Kalya) in the Jordan Valley. The previous record for Palestine was set on June 22, 1942, at the same location.

Palestine was the 4th nation to set an all-time hottest temperature in history record this month, and the 18th to set such a record this year. There has also been one nation (Guinea) that set an all-time coldest temperature in history record this year. Note that many countries, including the U.S., do not recognize Palestine as a nation, though 110 countries do recognize it. Here's the updated list of nations or semi-independent islands or territories that have set all-time heat or cold records this year:

National heat records set in 2010
Palestine, the portion of the territories occupied by Israel that declared independence in 1988, recorded its hottest temperature since record keeping began on August 7, 2010, when the temperature hit 51.4°C (124.5°F) at Kibbutz Almog (also called Qalya or Kalya) in the Jordan Valley. The previous record for Palestine was set on June 22, 1942, at the same location.

Belarus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 6, 2010, when the mercury hit 38.7°C (101.7°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk on August 1, 2010. Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

National cold records set in 2010
One nation has set a record for its coldest temperature in history in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region.

Commentary
The period January - July was the warmest such 7-month period in the planet's history, and temperatures over Earth's land regions were at record highs in May, June, and July, according to the National Climatic Data Center. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history. In fact, it may be more appropriate to say that global warming adds more spots on the dice--it used to be possible to roll no higher than double sixes, and now it is possible to roll a thirteen.

The year 2010 now has the most national extreme heat records for a single year--eighteen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, seventy-five counties set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest national temperature records (good for 2nd place behind 2010 for most extreme heat records) is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Pakistan's monsoon set to enter a heavy phase; Indus River flood crest peaking near the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains has arrived at the coast, and flood heights have risen to all-time record levels today at the Indus river gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri. The new flooding has forced new evacuations of hundreds of thousands of people in southern Pakistan over the past two days. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. The monsoon has been in a weak to moderate phase over the past three days, but is expected to enter a heavy phase once again Tuesday through Thursday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 3. Image of the Pakistan flood catastrophe of 2010, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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3946. JariKolehmainen
10:03 AM GMT on August 30, 2010
Thank you very much for your extremely interesting news. Greetings from the hot Finland.

However, I would kindly like to correct one mistake. You say: “Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.”

The new record is ok but the old record was 96.6°F (35.9°C) at Turku (Western Finland), not at Jyvaskyla (Central Finland), on July 9, 1914. I got this information from Finnish Meteorological Organization.

We have also got several other records in Finland during this summer (2010):

-Most days with temperatures over 77.0°F (25.0°C) during one summer (June-August): 48 days at Kouvola, Utti Weather Station (the former record was 42 days at Heinola in 2006).

-Most days with temperatures over 77.0°F (25.0°C) during one month: 27 days at Kouvola, Heinola, Lahti and Puumala in July (the former record was 22 days in 2003).

-The highest monthly average temperature (July): 73.4°F (23.0°C) at Puumala (the former record was 71.8°F / 22.1°C at Lappeenranta in 1925).

-The highest temperature ever recorded in August: 92.8 F (33.8 C) in Heinola, Puumala and Lahti (the former record was 91.8 F / 33.2 C at Sulkava in 1912).
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3945. caneswatch
6:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
8 posts in the last 3 hours. That won't last long, the kids are coming home.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3944. Herbertsbox
5:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAS
NOT YET FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

Member Since: August 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 94
3943. caneswatch
5:15 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting lahurrbuff:
Boy did this blog go dead in a hurry!!!


I know. Usually busy when it's like this out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3942. lahurrbuff
5:13 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Boy did this blog go dead in a hurry!!!
Member Since: July 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 51
3941. caneswatch
5:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
No posts in the last hour. That's a first i've seen on here in ever.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3940. b4dirt
3:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al06/loop_5W.shtml
kind of tells the story!
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15
3939. caneswatch
3:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting neonlazer:


That's what I was thinking. Although I am at school..just a break in classes.


I'm surprised because there's Danielle and there's a Tropical Depression waiting to happen.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3938. neonlazer
3:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:
The kids are at school. 2 posts in only a half an hour.


That's what I was thinking. Although I am at school..just a break in classes.
Member Since: July 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
3937. caneswatch
3:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
The kids are at school. 2 posts in only a half an hour.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3936. MashivHaRuach
3:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Considering that the United States does not consider Palestine a Nation, why are you counting it as such on your blog's heat record count? Seems like an openly political statement you are making rather than a meterological one. As such, you are going against your own standards for this blog.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
3935. blsealevel
3:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Link

700 - 850 steering map
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
3934. hcubed
2:56 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting FLHL2:
Quoting StormW:


The next figure shows the US temperature anomalies as calculated by NASA’s James Hansen (2001). The periods when the temperature anomalies are positive correspond almost exactly to when the PDO+AMO changes between warm and cool phases.


Interesting. I was watching a televised program not too long ago about the great dust storm of the dirty thirties. Looking at this graf it would apear we are nearing the peak of the warm phase. How will scientists blame the future cooling phase on mankind?

And add to that the FACT that the longest stretch of +100 degree temps was a 160 day period in the 20's.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3933. greentortuloni
2:55 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting hcubed:
Couldn't pass up this one:

Quoting Neapolitan:

"...The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest..."

And the fact is, in the earth's history, it has been warmer than we're seeing now - before man's arrival, and before the modern industrial age.


Sorry everyone else (I'm stuck for another week doing mindless data analysis and hence surfing the web amlessly during runs), anyway: couldn't pass this up either.

Just try this link for a series of articles on why the whole "global warming before so it doesn't matter now" is poorly thought out.

Member Since: June 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
3932. wayfaringstranger
2:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Amazingly still not north of 20 and Danielle should be able to digest out the drier air.
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
3931. hcubed
2:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Couldn't pass up this one:

Quoting Neapolitan:

"...The fact remains: mankind is rapidly heating the planet far beyond where we've got any right to. That's very stupid of us...as our descendants will no doubt attest..."

And the fact is, in the earth's history, it has been warmer than we're seeing now - before man's arrival, and before the modern industrial age.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
3930. Claudette1234
2:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
000
WTNT31 KNHC 241442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

...DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS...BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 46.5W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
3929. largeeyes
2:45 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
WTNT41 KNHC 241442
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010

THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
TO ITS WEST. ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC
SHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED. DATA
T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE
HURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS
ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...
WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
HELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF
CONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH
AND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17. THIS MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IS
REQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION
BUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK
MOTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.6N 46.5W 70 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.5N 48.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 19.1N 50.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 21.0N 52.3W 85 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 22.8N 53.8W 90 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 56.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 28.5N 58.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 32.0N 59.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
3928. largeeyes
2:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
DANIELLE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAKENS...BUT FORECAST TO REGAIN STRENGTH...
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1451
3927. Progster
2:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting TexasHoosier:
....do you think that Frank moving northwest up the west coast of Mexico is a big enough system that it could effect the movement of the LP system moving across the US to the point where it may have some effect on the size, power, and location of the trought that will form off the east coast of the US in the next 24-48 hours?

Just curious......


Frank is too remote from the westerlies to affect the progression of the east coast trof as is moves offshore during the next couple of days. What's kicking the trof offshore is a digging trof dropping on to the west coast and building then shifting the western ridge further east. Looks like Frank will feed some high level moisture into the SW US after day 5..but no effect in the short term.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
3925. wayfaringstranger
2:30 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting StormW:


About 11:00-11:30
Your on to a possibility? Checking somethings out first?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
3924. AustinTXWeather
2:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Thanks StormW!
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
3921. WxBlogAddict
2:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
Danielle Don't Feel the Weakness

She must need More Cowbell.


Another one of my favorites! Das war zehr gut
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
3920. Prgal
2:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3919. fsumet
2:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Still not going to start advisories with the invest off the coast of Africa. NHC said they weren't confident it had a closed low on the last pass, but advisories may start up this afternoon when they get a better look at it.
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
3916. hydrus
2:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting FLdewey:

Agreed I can't believe it's been that long. I very vividly remember the sound of the roof trusses as they failed one by one. I still get chills when I hear loud wood cracking.
When people ask me what it sounds like(trusses Failing) I ask them if they have ever pulled a nail out of a thick piece of wood and it has that ear piercing screech. They usually answer yes. Then I say multiply that times ten thousand and factor in the wind sreamin through the trees. that,s what it sounds like.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20337
3915. Prgal
2:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting Relix:


Hey PRGal! That it's gonna move more west than predicted =). Bermudas is in the fire zone I would say. Don't worry about us in PR, there's a one in 100 chance it even gets close to us =P. Only way to put us in danger is if it sustained a WSW movement for 12-18 hours which is extremely unlikely, so fret not! =P


Thanks! By the way, New Blog!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918
3914. IKE
2:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm going with IKE on danielle, it will die off to a TD. Cause: Wind shear and dry air.


I never said that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3913. Relix
2:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting Prgal:


Hola Relix. What does it mean?


Hey PRGal! That it's gonna move more west than predicted =). Bermudas is in the fire zone I would say. Don't worry about us in PR, there's a one in 100 chance it even gets close to us =P. Only way to put us in danger is if it sustained a WSW movement for 12-18 hours which is extremely unlikely, so fret not! =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
3911. AustinTXWeather
2:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
StormW, what time do you anticipate having your update today?
Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 241
3908. TexasHoosier
2:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
....and so now what we have is a combination of time and atmospheric intensity that will effect Danielle as she moves closer to the 50-55W Longitude line. The timing is not based on the first trough which apparently is not going to be the one to suck Danielle to the north as it was not as strong as forecast and the HP ridge was and is more powerful then expected.

What appears to be the real critical point is the low pressure system sweeping across the midwest all the way down to Texas and points south today. The first part of this wave is just passing through the DFW area, now, and is causing a major T-storm outbreak alone the Red River that is progressing south towards DFW.

As I said a couple of days ago, this Mexican HP system over Texas that extends into SE part of the United States is very powerful this year. LP systems from the north have just bounced off of it and and the prevailing jet stream that is responsible for storm systems moving to the south has pretty much kept everything to the north the last several weeks since the end of June.

Add to that, the building disturbance in the GOM and this could be a real interesting series of atmospheric events in the next 48-72 hours.

Will see if Danielle can stay continue to (1) move real fast at a continuous 17 knts on a 280 degree bearing, such that she continues to ignore the influences of the first trough, and (2) if the LP system sweeping across the center of the US keeps dropping further south and moving fast enough to get in position to pull Danny to the north before she gets really far to the west (again, around the 70W line).

Just for a real stretch, for the real meterological experts out there (StormW, Drak, Keeper, DJ, and others) do you think that Frank moving northwest up the west coast of Mexico is a big enough system that it could effect the movement of the LP system moving across the US to the point where it may have some effect on the size, power, and location of the trought that will form off the east coast of the US in the next 24-48 hours?

Just curious......
Member Since: December 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3907. markot
2:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
storm isnt a strong ridge going to build over the atlantic in a few days.....
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226
3906. BenBIogger
2:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting StormW:


clwstmchasr,
My point is, yeah theY MIGHT have it now, but if you go back and look at ALL of the model guidance for the past 3-4 days...all those lines point more toward 300. If she's been moving that way...how come she's still only at 16.5N?


Models probably ignoring the -NAO.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
3903. Orcasystems
2:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2010


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3902. SLU
2:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
815UTC



1345UTC



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4797
3901. stoormfury
2:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
check out GOES EAST WV IR/2 immagery and one will that the trough to the north of Danielle has weaken and flattened out. This the reason for the systemnot taking that drastic turn
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2574
3900. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting leo305:


There's clearly some shear coming in from the northwest, I assume it has to do with that ULL to it's north
I posted yesterday that the ULL would start to effect Danielle in 18 to 24 hours. It is happening a little sooner than I thought.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20337
3896. Prgal
2:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2010
Quoting Relix:
Facts at the moment:

1) High is strong and has grown bigger. Trough is taking its sweet time and doesn't seem that strong at the moment.
2) Steering layers indicated a WNW movement then once more a West movement for about 8-12 hours or even more depending on that trough.
3) Danielle is getting weaker. A weaker system will tend to go more westwards and be steered by another flow. It may even miss most of the effect of the trough.


Hola Relix. What does it mean?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 918

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