Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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The Caribbean is off-limits to any sort of tropical system:

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Quoting DestinJeff:
GFDL WOWZERS!

That's impressive. It also appears to be cutting towards the left, as if it were going to go south of Bermuda.

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179. IKE
Quoting xcool:
ecmwf


12z ecmwf


1006 mb's is about what it is now.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery ( wow wind shear again.


why do you always copy and paste everybody else's stuff?
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177. xcool
ecmwf


12z ecmwf
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well I am going to go for a bit, lurk mode mostly

wait until TD 6 figures out what it wants to do and we get all the RIPs out of the way
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06L way north of forecast points.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. The circulation advecting under the convection is a sign of improving conditions. Goes to show that the disturbance to the NE is dissipating along with more favorable upper level winds and lessening dry air.


It is interesting that the EC 12z run yesterday caught the north jog in movement to just north of 15N by 00z tonight. I thought this was unrealistic but did underestimate the amount of drag that the system to the NE would impart on TD 6. It appears the energy to the NE has split with the SW portion drawn into TD 6. I still feel that the models are overplaying the interaction with the energy to the NE and the first trof with a position near 25N and 65W when it interacts with the trof pushing off the East Coast in 5-6 days.
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Quoting pottery:
Keeper, post 164.
Looks bad....
its fighting for its life looks rough
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169. xcool


ecmwf 12z
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168. xcool
2010 just like 2009 Wind-Shear
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:


I think that the progression of waves has begun as well as the progression of storms to hurricanes


Yeah, I was looking at the wins shear maps and right now it looks like it over 5-10 knots, but then some 30-40 soon. Vorticity seems to be lacking, too. I'm not exactly sure how to read the Divergence Mpas , but I do see a circle, ha ha ha.

So here is the site where I get all this information from if anyone cares to look.

Have a great day... see yall tomorrow.
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Keeper, post 164.
Looks bad....
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12:30 UTC Terra/MODIS satellite image of 06L (missed most of the system though, lol). If you look all the way to the bottom of the image on the left hand side you can see the circulation. Keep in mind this image is 5 and a half hours old and is not current.

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Quoting bdkennedy:
Wow, I was really expecting Danielle this morning when I woke up.

Hopefully you didn't get Dan instead.
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Quoting FLdewey:
That would be a wicked awesome hurricane.

Get the Kaaa!


Those words go perfectly with your picture. And it is pak the kaaaa next to the bubblah.
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I lost my other tutor.....would someone please look at post 89 and give short explanation. Talking about the mass in the GOM and the wave west of the Lesser Antilles..THANK YOU!
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17:00 UTC, you can see the circulation on the edge of the convection...the image is about an hour old so the circulation possible is already under the convection.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't get this. What did Dr. Masters mean when he wrote this. . ."Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six"?
It means blogging before coffee... lol

I'm out, ya'll have a good afternoon!
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Sorry. THIS is the link.


I think that the progression of waves has begun as well as the progression of storms to hurricanes
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Latest ECMWF NAO forecast:
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what a hurricane season this has been many things against the run of the mill. anomalies
anomalies Danielle SHOULD have formed from td 5 and td 6 is fighting to be upgraded to Danielle
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00
FXUS61 KCTP 221533
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1133 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

ANOTHER INTERESTING POTENTIAL CENTERS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6
CURRENTLY WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N/33W. HURRICANE
CENTER FCSTS BRING IT WNW WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER THAT HOWEVER...THE ECMWF PAINTS THE
MOST OMINOUS PICTURE FOR THE EASTERN US AS IT USES THE FCST UPPER
RIDGE TO TRAP THE STORM AROUND DAY 10...HINTING AT A TURN TOWARD
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT`S OBVIOUSLY WAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED...BUT
WITH TROPICAL SEASON STARTING TO RAMP UP...IT`S WORTH KEEPING A
CLOSE EYE ON.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
I don't get this. What did Dr. Masters mean when he wrote this. . ."Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six"?
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:

Meanwhile,
has anybody seen.....
THIS ?????



Sorry. THIS is the link.
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Quoting StormW:


Oh yeah! I remember...how are ya? And Thank you again for the rum!!


All is good.. thx. I'll stop cluttering the board now and go back lurking/learning mode.
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Quoting EddieG:
I don't like to quibble but it's Cape Verde Islands not Cape Verdes Islands.
But they are also called the Cape Verdes, no islands.... so if u mean the Doc, he's correct.



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Meanwhile,
has anybody seen.....
THIS ?????
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LongIslandXpress38 i envision you being removed in less than 14 days
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The NWS for Central PA noted TD6 in their AFD. Its in the last paragragh in "Long Term"

NWS State College Area Forecast Discussion
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Quoting RotorYacht:


That is STRANGE storm!! Good Observation as usual.
It seems that the wobble to the NE is desteriorating the LLC! Interesting nevertheless!
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135. DVG
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you must be a Yankees fan then lol


A Yankees fan would be more concerned with Tampa right now.
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Quoting StormW:


They have doctors for that.


hahaha, true true
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6704
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:
I envision a Cat 4 taking out Fenway Park in 14 days..


you must be a Yankees fan then lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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