Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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atcf says this is still a TD at 5
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Quoting extreme236:
There we go.

22/1745 UTC 12.7N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic
Oh, you posted it too. TAFB at T2.5. So we have a consensus for a 40mph TS.
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TAFB at T2.5.
SAB at T2.5.


Both those estimates equal to a 40mph TS. Let's see what type of decision the NHC makes at 5p.m EDT.
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Quoting extreme236:
There we go.

22/1745 UTC 12.7N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic


Danielle coming?
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06L/XX/XX
MARK
13.37N/34.52W
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227. xcool
12z ECMWF keep west.
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06L 18Z


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 34.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 33.0W DIRM12 = 303DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 31.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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There we go.

22/1745 UTC 12.7N 34.6W T2.5/2.5 06L -- Atlantic
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LOL BreadandCircuses the TS symbol is always been the symbol for TD and TS on that site

here take a look

Link

look under the image #3
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
COC movement N..convection W..This is a weird one already...
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Miami, in yur opinion, do you think this is a threat to the East Coast?
Yes. Anywhere from South Carolina northwards should be keeping an eye on this. Something like what the 00z ECMWF shows could be very bad with the trough lifting out and a strong ridge building in forcing the 'major hurricane' right towards the eastern seaboard. There's a good chance that it'll recurve, but regardless, keep an eye on it.
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Quoting opalivan:
Im new to the blogging world but have viewed this site for a long while. Can anybody tell me if there is any possibility that our depression center could reform more sw under the stronger storms, and move a lot farther west as a weaker system and perhaps skirt the nothern islands

Probably not.
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.."I wanna be a NHC Forecaster"...
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Im new to the blogging world but have viewed this site for a long while. Can anybody tell me if there is any possibility that our depression center could reform more sw under the stronger storms, and move a lot farther west as a weaker system and perhaps skirt the nothern islands
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217. xcool
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O I hope not..
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Link

No comment on reliability. Just a datapoint.
Thank You
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
You should be prepared, as we all should. I hope you're never hit by a bad storm, but you do realize I hope that if a bad one blows your roof off, especially if you're footing the bill with the 2-5% hurricane deductible...you'll likely lose your enthusiasm, real quick.


I was only joking around lol.. I dont want a storm to hit me, well not a storm over cat. 1 winds.
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213. Vero1
Quoting Patrap:





Patrap it looks like your radar captured an earthquake in Georgia
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Quoting FLdewey:
Those hurricane deductibles are a real buzz kill.
Enough to make a grown man cry like a baby.
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Quoting reedzone:


If that's the case, I should start preparing for a storm lol. The EURO has it bending west on the end of the run from early this morning.
You should be prepared, as we all should. I hope you're never hit by a bad storm, but you do realize I hope that if a bad one blows your roof off, especially if you're footing the bill with the 2-5% hurricane deductible...you'll likely lose your enthusiasm, real quick.
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Quoting hydrus:
Very healthy t-waves over Africa.


Could become Earl indeed.
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Any thoughts on the stationary circulation at 17.0N 85W

It looks like the area could be fed energy from TS FRANK in the Pacific.

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Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 22nd, with Video

Out 'til later.
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204. xcool


ecmwf new
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Let It Be
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Sorry. THIS is the link.
Very healthy t-waves over Africa.
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WOW.

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The NOGAPS has been showing a merger of 2 systems that eventually head close to Bermuda for days now. Seems it may come to fruition.
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hmm from NW-WNW with its movements I expect this to move more west now and if continues west and maybe sout of west the it would be south od the forecast plots
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9592
198. xcool
jason2010xxxx .come now
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's impressive. It also appears to be cutting towards the left, as if it were going to go south of Bermuda.



Miami, in yur opinion, do you think this is a threat to the East Coast?
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td6 has weathered the shear and is reorganizing once again imo. ts danielle by 2am.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Tropical Depression Six



Tropical Storm Frank



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192. xcool
reedzone lol.i just posting new 12z ecmwf
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Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, August 22nd, with Video
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Quoting xcool:
i have this feel ecmwf going nailed this one ..


If that's the case, I should start preparing for a storm lol. The EURO has it bending west on the end of the run from early this morning.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
That HWRF is troubling
Where can I find this track and is this track considered reliable?
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185. xcool
i have this feel ecmwf going nailed this one ..ngp too
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Hmm. I posted yesterday afternoon that I did not anticipate this storm becoming anything significant until around 45W because of being sandwiched between two spots of shear, so this doesn't particularly surprise me. The HWRF overdoes pressure, but I am sticking with its wind forecast, which has looked good to me since yesterday. I think that model has a good handle on this system.

It'll pull through; there is far too much consensus on that (though I doubt that'll stop the perennial RIP'ers). I wouldn't entirely rule out a center reformation either -- if the LLC doesn't get pulled under that convection after the shear ends. The only way I can see this dissipating is if it pulls a Colin and speeds up its movement so fast that it outruns itself before it can put the LLC back where it needs to be.
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The Caribbean is off-limits to any sort of tropical system:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.