Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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3008 and 3022

SURFIE - well said, well said. I poked my head in for a quick look this morning, but think I will back out and let the morning feeding frenzy wear a few folks out.

Back later in the day for the next discussion.
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3031. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Remember the Halcion Days of last night, with the reduced tension in here?

Those were the good ole days of the blog.

That was clear.
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3030. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:


True, but now against Community Standards.

Denied, re-submit in 30 days.


ROTFLMAO!!!!
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3029. IKE
6Z GFDL....Link

6Z HWRF....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hurricane by 2pm today :D
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3026. smuldy
Quoting DestinJeff:
Remember the Halcion Days of last night, with the reduced tension in here?

Those were the good ole days of the blog.
lol
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Pretty darn tight consensus.



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look like Danielle is going to have a new friend soon right in back of her...haha.
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3022. surfmom
Quoting SQUAWK:

Storm, here is the part that I just don't understand: why do the models not see the things that you and others see? They spend so much money and time on them and they can't see a weakness in front of a storm? I just don't get it.


ME too!...but I think this is where forecasting isn't just hard science, but also an art & the talent to sense is a "gift" COMPUTERS DON'T "SENSE or FEEL" A horse trainer can have all the book knowledge in the world -- but if he/she can't "tune" in , can't "feel", "sense" and really read the energy of the horse...the trainer maybe adequate, but not Gifted

okay, back to my seat
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3020. smuldy
Quoting StormW:


Oh man...don't even go there. That is so totally of the wall. I was referring to the folks that come on and make blanket statements, every other post from some of the same folks, and come on to stir things up...I mean, it's funny to, how every time something hits the water, as soon as it exits Africa, everyone wants to scream fish. When ya back it up with data you can post and show me...then I listen...and I am not talking 'model consensus" either.
thats what i figured which is why i dint say anything but also value your input too much to get offended were you to ever get mad at novices like me for making a best attempt forecast guess using the little we know and coming off as being experts that may hinder the few just reading on here for info as they prepare for potential storms
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3019. SLU
We could have a hurricane in 18 - 24 hours.

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Will this new wave be too far south or too weak to be significantly recurved by the low or will Danielle pull it Northward or is it anyone's guess?
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Pretty big blog update I've just completed, hope you all find it very informative!

Danielle strengthening 8/23/10
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3016. pottery
Quoting surfmom:


well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO

Good for YOU, Wise One!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24648
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The "holier-than-thou" attitude is really getting old and stale.


Thank you.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Tropical Storm Danielle winds 60 mph moving wnw at 14 mpg and going to be a fish storm.


How many times have you said "fish storm" since this was over Africa?
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hey ryang That sat pas that you posted confirms my COC location
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12390
Quoting kmanislander:


I think a track more to the West short term but those two highs will not sit still. It would take a very strong high to force a strengthening storm to the S of a Westerly heading. Of course, it is always possible but not probable IMO.



Is that what happened with Ike?

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3006. surfmom
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Easy guys

There is a lot to learn from watching Danielle.

There is no sense in bashing anyone or questioning credentials.

All the ladies on the blog are so civil. Do us fellas really have that much of an issue getting along with others?

Anyway, moving on.....


well spoken - sometimes I have to wipe the testosterone off the screen
though I'm sure a Hot Flash or two have happened through the years
Generally speaking though -- the women are better students w/far less aggression, since most of us have raised kids we're savvy at side-stepping tantrums and pre-school behaviors - IMHO
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Tropical Storm Danielle winds 60 mph moving wnw at 14 mpg and going to be a fish storm.
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Danielle is clearly going to go south of the next forecast point.

Also, I'd expect 96L to form later today from the African AOI.
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3003. SQUAWK
Quoting StormW:


Well, I can...model consensus...still ain't happened yet. It will or should, but not yet. And the GFS that everyone worships, had her taking the hard north at 40W earlier in the period...where is the storm now?

Storm, here is the part that I just don't understand: why do the models not see the things that you and others see? They spend so much money and time on them and they can't see a weakness in front of a storm? I just don't get it.
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3001. smuldy
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.
oh ok sorry totally misread sarcasm and text and all lol; i respect whatever stormw wants to think cause i get 90% of my info from him and some are ridiculous with their one line fishstorm not fishstorm posts and if he meant novice casters like me he and he alone here has the right so i just shut my mouth and apologized if i came off to the very valuable experts here in any annoying way save for my humor posts
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The "holier-than-thou" attitude is really getting old and stale.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11264
2999. hercj
Quoting StormW:


I've got it near 14.8N 39.0W

So its under the convection? NHC keeps saying it's on the eastern side but I can't see that.
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2998. pottery
Good Morning, from a Bright and Suynny island.
It looks like we will get a few days of mostly hot conditions as Danielle tends to draw the moist stuff away from here
D. looks good this morning.
And a little something behind....
And a larger something in the EPAC....
Going to be a fun couple of days/weeks/months.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24648
Quoting StormW:


I've got it near 14.8N 39.0W


When I first came on this morning I placed it at 14.5 N and 38.5 W so those numbers look pretty good to me.
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something new to watch.
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2994. SLU
991

WHXX01 KWBC 231237

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1237 UTC MON AUG 23 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100823 1200 100824 0000 100824 1200 100825 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.8N 38.7W 15.7N 40.9W 17.2N 43.6W 19.1N 46.5W

BAMD 14.8N 38.7W 15.8N 41.3W 17.0N 43.6W 18.9N 45.7W

BAMM 14.8N 38.7W 15.9N 41.1W 17.2N 43.8W 19.1N 46.4W

LBAR 14.8N 38.7W 15.8N 41.3W 17.0N 44.3W 18.4N 47.3W

SHIP 50KTS 62KTS 74KTS 82KTS

DSHP 50KTS 62KTS 74KTS 82KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100825 1200 100826 1200 100827 1200 100828 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.9N 49.6W 22.8N 53.3W 25.1N 52.0W 31.0N 51.5W

BAMD 21.1N 47.6W 26.3N 50.4W 30.3N 51.4W 34.1N 52.8W

BAMM 21.0N 48.9W 24.1N 52.2W 26.7N 52.2W 31.3N 51.7W

LBAR 19.8N 50.3W 23.7N 54.2W 28.0N 54.8W 31.4N 53.9W

SHIP 89KTS 95KTS 91KTS 88KTS

DSHP 89KTS 95KTS 91KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 35.9W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 33.9W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM



$$

NNNN
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Rather impressive tropical wave.

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Quoting mrpuertorico:


looks like center due south of next nhc forecast point
I don't know how to post a link but if you look at NHC rainbow loop with the forecast points it IS due south and definitely moving almost due west.
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Easy guys

There is a lot to learn from watching Danielle.

There is no sense in bashing anyone or questioning credentials.

All the ladies on the blog are so cival. Do us fellas really have that much of an issue getting along with others?

Anyway, moving on.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2988. hercj
Quoting BobinTampa:


no, not at all. I'm on your side on this one. StormW's post was basically saying "you guys don't know as much as me so shut up and listen."

I was responding to that.

No it wasn't. Storm never says ANYTHING like that. He posts his best EDUCATED analysis of the feature for anyone to read.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey Kman hmm I think it might even be possible for our TS to feel the next high and maybe turn from west to WSW then moves back W-WNW accordingf to that map you posted


I think a track more to the West short term but those two highs will not sit still. It would take a very strong high to force a strengthening storm to the S of a Westerly heading. Of course, it is always possible but not probable IMO.

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Quoting hercj:

Senior, I have looked at this from 3 different satellite's and the best I can do is 275 - 280. Where is the COC?


looks like center due south of next nhc forecast point
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hey Kman hmm I think it might even be possible for our TS to feel the next high and maybe turn from west to WSW then moves back W-WNW accordingf to that map you posted
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12390
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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