Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting duajones78413:
Looks like the models shifted west. What are the chances of this thing getting into the Gulf?



small too none right now
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Impressive stuff being trended by the ECMWF.
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429. xcool


updateee
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 12:56:59 N Lon : 34:41:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 3.0 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +7.6C Cloud Region Temp : -14.9C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.09^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
What is the range on the unmanned plane that NOAA has in its arsenal of weather recon?


It can stay in the GOM for 20 hours, further out less on station time.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Looks like the models shifted west. What are the chances of this thing getting into the Gulf?
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Quoting Greyelf:

Someone who looks at the whole picture?


well played
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419. xcool
noaa Satellite Imagery down not update.stop at 1745.
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I could see the trough pulling it north toward bermuda. The ridge building back in pushing it toward NC/ Virginia area and then the next trough pulling it up the coast toward Canada
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I agree.
Yes...And Bermuda looks like it will get some weather from this no matter where it ends up.
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Quoting SFlKatCane5:


If you didn't know I was talking about buildings, then guess what you are?

Someone who looks at the whole picture?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
big fish storm..

Isn't the F button on your keyboard worn out yet?
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At least the Gulf is out of the picture , looks like the biggest threat will be to the NE coast, as of right now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
387. SFlKatCane5 7:32 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

So a potential major hurricane going over Bermuda is not big deal because the buildings are made of concrete?

Are you serious?


shes hurrkat or i call her stormkat what her name used to be before hurrkat.
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387. SFlKatCane5 7:32 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

So a potential major hurricane going over Bermuda is not big deal because the buildings are made of concrete?

Are you serious?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



he did your the one that needs too stop makeing the commets about it

ditto
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13N/35W TS Danielle now in my opinion, organizing rapidly now as far as i'm concerned.
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399. IKE
Quoting xcool:
ECM vs gfs .who gonna win...


They're similar at 168 hours...

GFS...near 32N and 62W...



ECMWF...near 30N and 58W...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
398. xcool
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Quoting philliesrock:

I don't think there's a high risk to the NE USA. Medium at best. There's a very high risk for Bermuda, though.


I agree.
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Quoting SFlKatCane5:


if you don't know what you're talking about then don't talk about it.


No need to be hostile and defensive trying to make your point. Even I thought pretty much the same thing to myself when reading your post - "People aren't made of concrete last I knew."
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Quoting Relix:
So as for now we have:

1) Tropical Storm Danielle practically thanks to the COC being surrounded by convection.

2) WNW-NW movement.

3) No risk at all for the Northern Antilles.

4) Low risk to SE USA

5) High risk to NE USA

6) Medium chance of recurve.

I don't think there's a high risk to the NE USA. Medium at best. There's a very high risk for Bermuda, though.
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393. xcool
Convection blowing up nowwww
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392. Vero1
.
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In the GRIP of the Tyrefitters' Hand...

Classic.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Relix:
So as for now we have:

1) Tropical Storm Danielle practically thanks to the COC being surrounded by convection.

2) WNW-NW movement.

3) No risk at all for the Northern Antilles.

4) Low risk to SE USA

5) High risk to NE USA

6) Medium chance of recurve.
Sounds right to me Relix. As always with weather though, things can change...
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hot tower right over the coc due e of next forecst point
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Quoting Relix:
So as for now we have:

1) Tropical Storm Danielle practically thanks to the COC being surrounded by convection.

2) WNW-NW movement.

3) No risk at all for the Northern Antilles.

4) Low risk to SE USA

5) High risk to NE USA

6) Medium chance of recurve.


7) 68% of the blog counted their chickens before they hatched
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386. xcool
ECM vs gfs .who gonna win...
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384. Relix
So as for now we have:

1) Tropical Storm Danielle practically thanks to the COC being surrounded by convection.

2) WNW-NW movement.

3) No risk at all for the Northern Antilles.

4) Low risk to SE USA

5) High risk to NE USA

6) Medium chance of recurve.
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Yeah,,no GRIP flights scheduled today.
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Quoting btwntx08:
lol admin did already


Yep. :/ I'm keeping a straight face. Didn't know Youtube videos could mess up the blog like that. Well, now I know. :(

BTW to all of the users, Eddy and I are very bored on the Tropics Talk, located right in the box "add a new comment." We're getting lonely! :(
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.