Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Ike, its right around where the Wundermap track says it should be. But as a tropical storm. That white in the center says something is going on right now. Buzzsaw like look, not good this early in the stage.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


See comment 559


Did he say..
'OMG DEFIANT US LANDFALL WERE ALL DOOM'
No? You obviously haven't been on here long, Taz is joking.

The likelihood of this affecting the US is slim.
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How about this one from 1964

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dora_1964_track.png
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Bermuda is not a US city


I am well aware of that..
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Watching the 12z ECMWF Ensembles come in live...they love Bermuda for the most part. There are a few west/east outliers, but not many.
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Quoting Seastep:


But, Ike, you forgot the fishcasting 300 hours out.... Check. ;)


of course he forgot that part, because that is the part he agrees with
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Bermuda? Sheesh kid, no ones wishcasting.


See comment 559
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Bermuda? Sheesh kid, no ones wishcasting.


Bermuda is not a US city
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561. IKE
Looks to be near 13.8N and almost 35W. I remember 2 days ago TPC had a forecast of near 14N and 37W. Looks like they will be close.
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TD 6 has a 50% ch of hiting any where from FL up the E coast
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Quoting DestinJeff:
TS TOPANGA ...

coming to a Fishery near you soon!
Ahhh, Boy Meets World. Now that's the stuff...!
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
There is absolutely no chance that TD 6 will hit (insert US city here). Please stop wishcasting and saying that TD 6 is moving west.


Bermuda? Sheesh kid, no ones wishcasting.
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Hey anyone had a look at the GOM lately? Seems like there is a bit of divergence, convergence and some vorticity happening. Comments would be greatly appreciated tyvm!
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Added real-time ECMWF wind speed swath map for the tropical Atlantic:

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Quoting IKE:


Yup...I'm a day off so far. That may end within minutes.


I was going to say if we don't hit the D storm by tomorrow then you could say on August 24th that this season is below average, which now looks less likely.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

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Quoting xcool:
TD6 WNW motion 9K .JMO


see comment 526
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496. DestinJeff 8:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2010


"Has anybody mentioned Frances in the past 30 minutes. It's in the bylaws."

I have a short memory...since the sixties. What about 09 Bill?
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549. IKE
Quoting Seastep:


But, Ike, you forgot the fishcasting 300 hours out.... Check. ;)


True. That one has gotten worn out.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm it look like TD6/pre-TS Danielle is moving west now at 13.2N 35.3W I am very sure about this


see comment 526
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543. IKE
Quoting philliesrock:



I wouldn't rule that track out either.
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Quoting IKE:
1301. IKE 6:09 AM CDT on August 14, 2010

Looks like a true Cape Verde system by this time next week. All of the models show it.

My prediction...

(1)There will be tons of "west"-casting going on.
(2)A few will say a track to Florida even though it's 4,000 miles away.
(3)Some will say..."aren't you forgetting the islands? They're first and foremost".
(4)Those that like to beat their chests will say...this is what I've been saying would happen. Even though their previous forecasts were wrong.
(5)Some will say....where are the downcasters and season-is-a-bust crowd at now?
.............................................

(1)Check.
(2)Check just about achieved.
(3)Never materialized....yet.
(4)Seen just a little of.
(5)Never materialized....yet.


But, Ike, you forgot the fishcasting 300 hours out.... Check. ;)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dude.
lol..!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm it look like TD6/pre-TS Danielle is moving west now at 13.2N 35.3W I am very sure about this


RIGHT AT YOU!
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I think that we'll have a TS at 5.
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Quoting IKE:
Heck...everybody else is puttin one up. Here's what TD6 looks like in track to me...maybe a little further east on the north end of the track vs. this one...


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Quoting Hurricanes101:


MAJOR hurricane, nota hurricane, read again

Yes, but people were talking last night like it was a cinch.
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532. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


You missed August 23rd...


Yup...I'm a day off so far. That may end within minutes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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