Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting bigwes6844:
does anyone think this storm can hit the NYC area because most of these runs look like it.
It all depends on the timing of the trof,and weather how strong or weak it is when the storm comes around.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

Dude Im no kid and I erased it right away....


It was still removed...
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Quoting bigwes6844:
does anyone think this storm can hit the NYC area because most of these runs look like it.
Yes, it is possible
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It appears there are 3 camps in today's 12z Euro Ensembles:

1. Harmless recurve out to sea: 20% of members.
2. Bermuda hit/slightly east of Bermuda, then out to sea: 50% of members.
3. Bermuda hit/south of Bermuda, then East Coast brush or hit: 30% of members.

I'm leaning towards #2 at the moment personally.
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618. IKE
Most overstated with TD6.....f**h storm.

A close 2nd.................moving w**t.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its going to be a fish storm.
there...Thank you Jason.
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Ike, I am going to send you something via wunder mail and see if you agree with it. Just some thoughts.
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Quoting bappit:

I totally agree with the 384 hours comment. On the other hand, the convection is still west of the center and the center itself is not under the convection. At least, that's what the satellite pic centered on the storm on WeatherUnderground shows. Zoom in and the center of the pic is almost all black (no convection) and a bright blob in the northwest corner.


Looks right over the center on the viz loop, to me.

Link
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610. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
looks like we will have TS danielle at 5PM
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606. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


I was going to say if we don't hit the D storm by tomorrow then you could say on August 24th that this season is below average, which now looks less likely.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml



It should get upgraded now.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike, its right around where the Wundermap track says it should be. But as a tropical storm. That white in the center says something is going on right now. Buzzsaw like look, not good this early in the stage.


Danielle within minutes.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Will this be enough to bring us Danielle?

Yes..jmo
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
Will this be enough to bring us Danielle?

most likely, and when that convection wraps all the way around the center, what will be intresting is tonight
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Until the fat lady, or mother nature in this sense "sings" I am not going to count out any tracks or anything. If there is one thing I have learned about living in Hurricane Alley or Hurricane Country, thats it.
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Quoting bigwes6844:
does anyone think this storm can hit the NYC area because most of these runs look like it.


Unlikely at this time to me. Lotta troughs coming off the eastern seaboard. Its all about timing.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


YEAH! Only the best sitcom this side of 1990!


I enjoy your humor on this blog Destin Jeff. I am Joe from Port St. Lucie, East Central FL. So what's your take on the first 10 days of September?
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I think the wave the models develope about 3-4 days from now is the current wave behind T.D 6 that's labled PGI34L.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Before we do, I have to say that after the model run yesterday that showed some cyclone hitting the Cape Verde's.......I searched my soul and realized that I am and always will be a Verde-caster.
lol
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does anyone think this storm can hit the NYC area because most of these runs look like it.
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Quoting sporteguy03:
How about this one from 1964

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dora_1964_track.png

If the HWRF verified that track might have to come into play.
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sorry galvestonhurricane I made you want to cry but TD6 is moving west from 13.2N 34.6W-13.2N 35.3W
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
can we all stop with the stupid casting crap
Before we do, I have to say that after the model run yesterday that showed some cyclone hitting the Cape Verde's.......I searched my soul and realized that I am and always will be a Verde-caster.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
With tropical weather it's never a good idea to automatically assume something. In this science, there is no such thing as 100% certainty. There may be a handful who blather about a 100% hit, or a 100% fish...but 99%+ of us know it's best to watch. I just don't believe in wasting too much time dealing with models 384 hours out. Just look at today. 5 hours ago the NHC(and most models) said not much change for 12-24 hours. 5 hours later we see the convection exploding over the COC.

I totally agree with the 384 hours comment. On the other hand, the convection is still west of the center and the center itself is not under the convection. At least, that's what the satellite pic centered on the storm on WeatherUnderground shows. Zoom in and the center of the pic is almost all black (no convection) and a bright blob in the northwest corner.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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