Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Zegama:
Hey Everyone! Seems a bit tense in here. Just from some reading, are they expecting the high to build in and move west? Danielle may be making an appearance by the end of tonight.
Yes a ridge is expected to build back in.But I think Danielle will find a weakness in the ridge.However the same cannot be said for the storm that will be followig it.
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674. xcool
big a+ for Jason
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Still looks stretched NE-SW to me..nice blow-up of convection..lest see if it continues and wraps around..
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Quoting Tazmanian:



looks like you dont look at mode runs i see



mode runs are turning more W


Taz, listen, these kinds of people do this on purpose to get a rise out of some of us and most of us have those kinds of people on ignore

please stop responding to them
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just wondering is there a site or sites with all the model
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Hey Everyone! Seems a bit tense in here. Just from some reading, are they expecting the high to build in and move west? Danielle may be making an appearance by the end of tonight.
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Some of the models show ideal conditions in the future in the tropics,there for they or some are showing an explosion of storms.So due expect to be tracking one or two storms in the coming weeks.
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Ike you have mail
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys stop calling this a FISH OK


How come people cant call it what it is? Its ok for alot of people to over hype it but its easy to see its heading out to sea!
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i hope its TS Danielle its gotta be
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Quoting YourCommonSense:


Can I call this a Fish?



Use YourCommonSense

(sorry i stole that phrase from ya Storm..i couldn't help it..)
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Quoting philliesrock:
It appears there are 3 camps in today's 12z Euro Ensembles:

1. Harmless recurve out to sea: 20% of members.
2. Bermuda hit/slightly east of Bermuda, then out to sea: 50% of members.
3. Bermuda hit/south of Bermuda, then East Coast brush or hit: 30% of members.

I'm leaning towards #2 at the moment personally.



I am thinking more along the lines of option 3.
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Quoting hydrus:
If this does become a "fish storm" Jason will have some bragging rights..He has made it quite clear that it will be a fish...
lol
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Quoting tkeith:
there...Thank you Jason.
If this does become a "fish storm" Jason will have some bragging rights..He has made it quite clear that it will be a fish...
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Until the fat lady, or mother nature in this sense "sings" I am not going to count out any tracks or anything. If there is one thing I have learned about living in Hurricane Alley or Hurricane Country, thats it.


The other thing is not to get all riled up over some TD in the Atlantic that might go here or there......but I understand that for the weather addicts every little change is a big deal. So carry on.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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