Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


satellite estimates



ok oh is that X TD 5 back in the gulf for a other try?
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931. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting Tazmanian:



what do the nhc ues when the storm is this far out


satellite estimates
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928. srada
this is from crownweather today

So, the model guidance as a whole is suggesting a possible risk to Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes and potentially the US East Coast, especially the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With that said, it is still very, very early in the game and this storm poses no threat to any land masses for at least the next 5 to 7 days. One thing I will be watching for over the next several days is to see how far north it gets in latitude. If this stays at or south of 23 North Latitude, then we may have a real problem on our hands in terms of landfall risk to the US East Coast
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Now you've done it. Bet we see one soon.
That would make my day. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5

doesnt look good something might spin up real soon
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


45 knots is about 52mph



what do the nhc ues when the storm is this far out
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924. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Well if I lived in Bermuda and was a CNN viewer, I would feel insulted. So far all of their Danielle coverage has been saying it will curve out to sea away from ALL land, while the current cone has D aiming for the island if it were to XTRP directly down the center. They even have the audacity to draw lines over Bermuda while saying it. The only concern the Eastern Seaboard... Perhaps it just bothers me because I too live in a small island, which perhaps mean that us being affected by a tropical system doesn't amount to much... Tsk Tsk
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Quoting Tazmanian:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:59 N Lon : 35:08:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.4 3.4




this says we have a strong TS


Doesn't look organized on satellite imagery. Gradual stregthening can be anticipated.
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dont tell me this is X TD 5

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898. TexasHoosier 5:46 PM EDT on August 22, 2010

the second one may be possible but highly doubtful on Danielle getting that far south
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting Tazmanian:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:59 N Lon : 35:08:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.4 3.4




this says we have a strong TS


45 knots is about 52mph
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Very very doubtful.

Fish!
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2010 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 13:24:59 N Lon : 35:08:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.4 3.4




this says we have a strong TS
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Thx Destin Jeff..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
913. xcool
Danielle
wnw close to 40w
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
912. 7544
hmm so looks like daniele will be going further west than expected could she even make it to the bamamas time will tell

lets see how far west the new model will shift .

this ts has more tricks to come in play and no one one can call anyshots on her as of now imo
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Interesting cyclonic rotation near tampa bay,should move offshore tonight and i suspect could be the beginning of some gom brew!!!!!,maybe......

Been watching the nexrad and seeing that spin as we have had storms popping up on the east coast all day.
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Satellite imagery.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wish there was a blogger named GFS.

Meh.


Now you've done it. Bet we see one soon.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


The NHC has her moving WNW.


so either recurve out to sea or east coast landfall are the two most likely scnarios at this time?
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Hey guys.... :(



Spaghetti Models.
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moonlightcowboy: are you time travelling backwards? nielle is at hand!
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Oh man! We just got nailed here in on the west central coast of Florida and more headed toward us. No power, no internet, nothing for three hours. I hope this isn't a preview. Jeez.
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I wish there was a blogger named GFS.

Meh.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Looks like Jeff is getting rocked right now and Ike next. Been like this over a week now. Great cloud formations and decent lightning shows.
Yes it has been this way for over a week.... From this Storm alone the show is crazy and "Snap, Crackle and BOOM".


Taco :o)
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Quoting will45:


it would take a sea going tug boat to pull it that far south


Well, your probably right, as Danielle has been advancing at a 2 degree west, one degree north over the last day and that puts it up around 30N when it gets to the 70W line. But the NOGAPS model seems to be taking into account that second ridge flattening the trajectory out at around day 5 and putting it closer to that 270-290 degree bearing I was talking about as it starts to get close to the outermost West Indies Islands.

Again, that ridge which may or may not build in a few days over the Western Atlantic is probably a key player for Danielle and the TD/Future TS that is right behind it.

I bet we miss one but that we are not so lucky with the second and it gets it into the GOM and the Florida Panhandle people start heading for Atlanta.....well, I hope not.....
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Firefox, works in IE also, but I don't think Safari.

Okay.. B/c i have firefox but it wont let me post the animation radar.. I might have to check my settings..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh jeez, it's that time of day again. This is FLdewey's word: "Meh"...I thought it was fitting.
lol dont live and die by the gfs pushing storms right on through high pressure ridges just cause it felt like it? lol
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Looks like Jeff is getting rocked right now and Ike next. Been like this over a week now. Great cloud formations and decent lightning shows.


Was pouring most of yesterday and this morning here in St Pete, that convection in the Gulf was over here earlier
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

Yea i was trying to post that radar.. lol.. What internet browser u use?


Firefox, works in IE also, but I don't think Safari.
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Quoting taco2me61:
Hey you we are getting "Rocked" over here in Mobile right now.... I just got back my internet and power keeps going and coming from this 4" an hour Storm....

Taco :o)


Looks like Jeff is getting rocked right now and Ike next. Been like this over a week now. Great cloud formations and decent lightning shows.
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Quoting duajones78413:


So this thing might end up in the gulf?
not impossible yet but EXTREMELY unlikely, still too far out to entirely rule out like any storm at 35w but i wouldn't even hit the fret button nevermind the panic button. East coast should still check in from time to time though to make sure recurve verifies and ridging doesn't work some juju.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Whats that mess rolling off the coast of Africa behind Danielle?


my bahamas trip nightmare......
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Does anyone have a comment about the area of circulation located at 17.2n 85w off the north coast of Honduras?

I think we could have a tropical system here soon.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Yea i was trying to post that radar.. lol.. What internet browser u use?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting duajones78413:


So this thing might end up in the gulf?

right now, HIGHLY unlikely
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Hey you we are getting "Rocked" over here in Mobile right now.... I just got back my internet and power keeps going and coming from this 4" an hour Storm....

Taco :o)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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