Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


I have none for the moment, but I leave early next Sunday to move to Fairbanks and start college, so ya, schoolyear about to begin.


A whole new experience. Exciting!
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Taz, Let me put it this way. If not for the egg recall I could have scrambled eggs on someone's hood.
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Quoting weatherwart:
Hey Levi, how's school? Good to see you back.


I have none for the moment, but I leave early next Sunday to move to Fairbanks and start college, so ya, schoolyear about to begin.
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Danielle

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting markot:
it was expected to go near bermuda, but things are chging. trof will not pick it up.....



have you even been following the mode runs
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Look I am interested in this wave that appears to be exiting way far north. Whats up with that and why are we seeing storms rolling off too far north?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
its still going to be a fish storm.


Don't be so certain. I live in the Northeastern part of the US, and this looks indeed, potentially life-threatening to our area.
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it was expected to go near bermuda, but things are chging. trof will not pick it up.....
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Quoting Levi32:


Wouldn't doubt it....you guys in Cali have had one nasty summer. Almost not a summer lol.



yup
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Taz and we are going to continue to roast down here



heh heh
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Hey Levi, how's school? Good to see you back.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




we are going too have a vary fall like weekend next weekend with even falling snow levels high temper may not even make 80 this next comeing weekend


Wouldn't doubt it....you guys in Cali have had one nasty summer. Almost not a summer lol.
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Taz and we are going to continue to roast down here
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
The 12z GFS ensembles continue to be split between either a storm recurving out to sea or a storm hitting the northeast US.

Day 10 ensemble mean sea-level pressure and spread:

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GFS 18Z at 54 hrs. Danielle looks nice, and an area of low pressure has formed with the TW coming off of Africa right now.

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Quoting Levi32:
The NAEFS is interesting....

Day 10:





And there's the ridging over southeast Canada:





we are going too have a vary fall like weekend next weekend with even falling snow levels high temper may not even make 80 this next comeing weekend
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957. Levi32 10:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

The trend continues and it is really to a point that those who call people who see this trend "westcasters", really are failing to see what is actually going on.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
It'll actually be named td5.5,lol
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Levi, glad to see you back
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5

ok Taz we want tell you that this is "Ex-TD5"...
Quoting Tazmanian:



what do the nhc ues when the storm is this far out
"Satellites" now remember that everthing is "Estimated"

Taco :o)
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Quoting DestinJeff:


See how that 1020 H nw of D unfolds
blasted gfs lol it loves that trough, well we will see, at least this run makes sense if its right (so far) unlike last night where no trough shows and storm still went north at 50 through high pressure
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
The NAEFS is interesting....

Day 10:





And there's the ridging over southeast Canada:

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You can also see TS Frank skirting the Mexican coastline.

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X TD 5 wants other ch
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never did care for firefox, that's what i'm doing now is remembering the last post... lol ya'll just fill in to dang quick sometimes!
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953. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Destin Jeff.. Yea I live in Niceville.. and I went to bestbuy in Destin when that storm rolled in.. Decent amount of rain.. But we could get more lil later.. We will see!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5

......roger that it appears to be reregenerating,lol
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Because of dry-ish air, as well as decent wind shear.

Both of which continue to decrease.
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will turn west. day 4 -5 ridge will build north of it.....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5



Seriously? Whatever it is, it's been pounding us!
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Quoting markot:
its not going to go to bermuda....




yes it will or vary near it
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Quoting palmasdelrio:
Why is the east side of Danielle kind of flat, with no outflow?


Because of dry-ish air, as well as decent wind shear.

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942. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
AL062010
==================

2010AUG22 211500
CI: 2.9
Pressure: 1001.
knots: 43.0
T2.8
Adjusted T2.5
Raw T2.5
Weakening Flag ON '
Rapid Weakening OFF
Cloud Top Temps: -60.0C
Scene: Irregular Central Dense Overcast

---
At least the shear scene is gone now.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


not sure if it is or not



ok
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how do you guys keep up with all the new posts? i have to keep hiting the refresh button and then wait for it to load.... is that what everyone else is doing or am I doing something wrong here, hate to post in the middle of it all, but I've learned a crap ton from you guys this season and last and I hate missing posts when i refresh........... thanx in advance
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its not going to go to bermuda....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5

I thought Ex T.D.5 was still over Georgia...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



what do the nhc ues when the storm is this far out
They use a combination of CIMSS, TAFB, and SAB.
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Quoting xcool:


Looks like it develops the wave after Danielle. Danielle is becoming powerful already.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ok oh is that X TD 5 back in the gulf for a other try?


not sure if it is or not
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
Why is the east side of Danielle kind of flat, with no outflow?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


satellite estimates



ok oh is that X TD 5 back in the gulf for a other try?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.