Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm going out on a limb , Danielle will be a hurricane by noon tomorrow and a major hurricane by midnight Tuesday.
careful, that limb you are on seems pretty weak and shaky...I can here it cracking from here :)
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1080. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1079. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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I'm going out on a limb , Danielle will be a hurricane by noon tomorrow and a major hurricane by midnight Tuesday.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have any thoughts?
No eye yet. For that you're better off seeing this microwave image:

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


East, I am noticing the 00Z and 12Z runs have been further west and the 06Z and 18Z models are further east

*waits for that next comment, come on someone here knows what that is*


"fish storm" :D
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Quoting Patrap:
It has been very wet lately indeed!
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The movement of Danielle further to the east is because of the addition of a low pressure system near the Azores on this run.

That's a radical change considering GFS showed a ridge there last run, which leads me to think this might be an anomaly. Food for comparison with the next couple of runs.

Comparisons
18z GFS out 156 hours


...12z GFS out 162 hours (156 6)
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what in the name is that mess over to west of Florida?
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Quoting xcool:


maybe eye way starttt


Not sure what to make of this. Anyone have any thoughts?
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Quoting shawn26:
Is there any chance at all that Danielle could hit the east coast of Florida?


There is some chance, just keep your eye on it.
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Quoting caneswatch:


Are you sure about that?
what, no threat to US or somebody admitting reedzone is their hero ?
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1062. Patrap
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Out to sea. But monster storm! Has this shifted to the west or east from last model run?



East, I am noticing the 00Z and 12Z runs have been further west and the 06Z and 18Z models are further east

*waits for that next comment, come on someone here knows what that is*
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
Quoting hunkerdown:
post 1033

you knew somebody was gonna bring it up, the Frances references were not good enough...
It was me originally that brought up Frances and ever since then people had took it and ran with it.So ever since then I've shut my mouth about it.But I see no one is really talking about it.
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1059. xcool


maybe eye way starttt
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
check out the WV loop, the ULL over the northern Bahamas does not seem to be moving anywhere fast, could that be what causes Danielle to move in a fashion to feel the weakness and scoot out and miss the US (notice I did not say fish cause Bermuda could still be in her sights if she does recurve out to sea) ?
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
TS Danielle COC is at 13.4N 35.8W moving W or N of due W
actually between 275-280 degrees almost due west imo
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structure of Danielle has improved greatly today

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7826
Quoting stormpetrol:
look at the rainbow loop of Danielle, talking about cold cloud top , I think shes undergoing RI, also notice wnw movement


IMO, it would be rapid intensification if the system wasn't in easterly shear. There is virtually no outflow east of the burst, its not the best breathing envrionment for this to do RI.
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Quoting reedzonemyhero:
No threat to US....life is good:-)


i love it
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Quoting reedzonemyhero:
No threat to US....life is good:-)


Are you sure about that?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Not the normal day time heating up in this part of the state. Think it's the remnants of TD5 that just never quite left us.


Ex TD 5, the storm that won't die. I think we're about to get another round of storms here in PC.
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TS Danielle COC is at 13.4N 35.8W moving W or N of due W
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post 1033

you knew somebody was gonna bring it up, the Frances references were not good enough...
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Out to sea. But monster storm! Has this shifted to the west or east from last model run?

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Quoting hydrus:
You guys get whacked almost every day this time of year. Is it just the daytime heating, rain machine thing?


Not the normal day time heating up in this part of the state. Think it's the remnants of TD5 that just never quite left us.

edit: It's all stacked up against the frontal system you see in post #1035.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
look at the rainbow loop of Danielle, talking about cold cloud top , I think shes undergoing RI, also notice wnw movement
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1036. markot
trof is not supposedto pick up danielle as we thought few days ago........
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1033. shawn26
Is there any chance at all that Danielle could hit the east coast of Florida?
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Quoting Snowlover123:
18Z GFS takes it out to sea, and goes to town with Danielle, again, about the same as all of the other GFS model runs today.



Don't let my name fool you, I'm in the
Mid-Hudson Valley, but I do go to Long Island a lot!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.