Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields

ADDED TWO model runs to the site

ecmwf
ecmwf o

anyone aware of these two models?
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are you sure we do not have a rapidly developing eye.... or at least eyewall look at the center of the IR here




plus this is very intense convection
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




The population lefties and south lefties at the end of the F Cast period are increasing.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Ameister12:

Is that a gray hair I see? lol.
lol its gone on the last frame, she must have dyed it!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting clwstmchasr:
You have to give credit to the GFS for consistency. With the exception of a couple of runs a few day ago, it has barely shifted the projected path of Danielle.
Also it has been developing the wave behind danielle,and then drops it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
If this system becomes a major, with the moisturized atmosphere that we are seeing. What happens to the next system to the rear of it. The one that was called a nightmare in the Bahamas
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whats with the nogaps and hwrf models? r they still recurving the storm? also great burst of convection
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1123. IKE
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1122. xcool
Danielle move 9k wnw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Redhead with nothing in the head.
lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting doorman79:
Why Thank You!! By looking at Rainbow imagery she may be one firey redhead lol


Is that a gray hair I see? lol.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very impressive convective burst.


ADT's starting to rise.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt

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Redhead with nothing in the head.
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1116. Relix
Finally a storm with a closed LLC that should have no issues becoming our second Hurricane and then probably first major. Will be a sight to see. I know someone from the blog here (Serial!) will love the waves to the north of PR! =P
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1115. xcool
hurricane Danielle soon ooh boyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1114. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


In 2002 the average number of Tropical Cyclones was 14.

In 2010 it was 19. 19. N-n-n-n-n-n-n 19. 19.
Thanks for putting that in my head!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Yep Danielle is organizng nicely today,and it's showing some cold cloud tops.By the way nice avatar.
Why Thank You!! By looking at Rainbow imagery she may be one firey redhead lol

Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
TS Danielle COC is now at 13.4N 36.0W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11950
1111. Parkay
Quoting Tazmanian:



LOL


I've already evacuated.
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Quoting IKE:
Very impressive convective burst.
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1109. scott39
Quoting IKE:
GFS shows a GOM threater at 324 hours. I'm gonna go ahead and board up....

Storm Shutters are much easier.
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1108. IKE
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Quoting IKE:
GFS shows a GOM threater at 324 hours. I'm gonna go ahead and board up....




LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:

UW-CIMSS thinks Danielle is a 47kt TS.

Chances are that Danielle gets bumped to 45mph at 11p.m.



Scratch that, UW-CIMSS now thinks Danielle is a 49kt TS with a pressure of 997.6mb.



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Quoting doorman79:
Good Evening everyone!!

Looks like Danielle is fired up this evening!
Yep Danielle is organizng nicely today,and it's showing some cold cloud tops.By the way nice avatar.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
1101. IKE
GFS shows a GOM threater at 324 hours. I'm gonna go ahead and board up....

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1099. jonelu
She seems right on track with NHC forecasting points
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I think now it might have first been Gulfscotsman back in 2006 that first made the comparison.


What ever happened to gulfscot?
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1097. aquak9
Quoting hunkerdown:
afternoon pup, didn't think you were around this time of day


been in and out hunker, lurking mostly. Good laughs from dewey and destin-J.

Kinda wunderin' too..how we gonna make it to 19, if we can't even make it to nine?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Its highly inprobable, but not impossible Danielle could make it into the GOM.
I don't know brother. That seems like a long shot at this point. Not to say it hasn't crossed my mind,but I'll make a friendly wager with ya! I say it won't.
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Quoting thelmores:


its ex-ex-ex TD5 which has re-re-re looped around..... LOL

I must say after reading the last several hundred blog post's, we have set a new record for the number of wishcasters! LOL

If miss Danny even farts, there is a prediction of a much farther west track! LOL
...of the gaseous emission
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting stormpetrol:
Its highly inprobable, but not impossible Danielle could make it into the GOM.
I'll give you credit, you're standing firm as the ultimate westcaster.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting hunkerdown:
careful, that limb you are on seems pretty weak and shaky...I can here it cracking from here :)

LMAO!!! :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont tell me this is X TD 5



its ex-ex-ex TD5 which has re-re-re looped around..... LOL

I must say after reading the last several hundred blog post's, we have set a new record for the number of wishcasters! LOL

If miss Danny even farts, there is a prediction of a much farther west track! LOL
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Good Evening everyone!!

Looks like Danielle is fired up this evening!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
UW-CIMSS thinks Danielle is a 47kt TS.

Chances are that Danielle gets bumped to 45mph at 11p.m.

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Destinjeff I did and then reed came along.I only said at the time the storm had a small percentage of doing what frances did.But the chances are slim at this moment for the storm to even threaten the conus.
i wouldn't be so quick to make that assumption
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Its highly inprobable, but not impossible Danielle could make it into the GOM.
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Destinjeff I did and then reed came along.I only said at the time the storm had a small percentage of doing what frances did.But the chances are slim at this moment for the storm to even threaten the conus.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16964
Jeff, my apologies. I didn't see that.
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1083. Patrap

Excessive Heat Warning

Statement as of 4:08 PM CDT on August 22, 2010

... Excessive heat warning remains in effect until 10 PM CDT
Monday...

An excessive heat warning remains in effect until 10 PM CDT
Monday.

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued an
excessive heat warning... which is in effect until 10 PM CDT
Monday. The heat advisory is no longer in effect.

Temperatures late this afternoon ranged from the mid 90s to near
the century mark... and only will fall into the lower to middle 90s
by early evening. Temperatures on Monday will be similar... though
possible a few degrees cooler... especially along the Mississippi
border. These very warm temperatures in combination with high
levels of humidity generally will produce heat index values around
105 to 110 degrees through early evening. Late evening and
overnight conditions will remain uncomfortable... with overnight
temperatures only dropping into the upper 70s and lower 80s...
with heat indices struggling to lower below the 80 degree mark.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon into the evening hours... which will provide temporary
relief from the heat.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

On average each year... several hundred fatalities occur
nationwide due to heat exposure and heat related illnesses
according to the center for disease control... heat kills.
Children often are victims of accidentally being left in vehicle.
Remember... beat the heat and be sure to check the backseat.

During prolonged... excessive heat... be sure to check on the
elderly... and others with mobility problems. Also check on those
who are reluctant to use air conditioning or have difficulty
accessing cooling centers.

Pets also are vulnerable to the effects of heat. Be sure animals
that area kept outdoors have access to shade and plenty of water.
Consider bringing house pets indoors during the heat of the day
for relief.

An excessive heat warning means that a prolonged period of
dangerously hot temperatures will occur. The combination of hot
temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a dangerous
situation in which heat illnesses are likely. Drink plenty of
fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay out of the sun...
and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm going out on a limb , Danielle will be a hurricane by noon tomorrow and a major hurricane by midnight Tuesday.
careful, that limb you are on seems pretty weak and shaky...I can here it cracking from here :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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