Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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1232. scott39
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Thanks for confirming that with me Scott39.

By the way, if you are looking for where steering troughs are located at, check out the CIMSS products:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

One of the best links for tropical weather I have found. I have made a forecast based on the speed of the troughs between 0300Z August 21 and 0300Z August 22.
Thanks, Great site and enjoyed you forecast.
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
The circulation appears to be completely under the convection. Check it out on shortwave.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting cirrocumulus:
It looks like we may have hurricane status approaching imminently. What rapid development on infrared satellite!


If I was in Vegas, I'd be careful about betting on that statement. There is no outflow east of center, this is not the best brething environment for a system to go from minimal tropical storm to hurricane in less than a day. Its tough for Danielle to do that now.
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1228. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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Quoting cirrocumulus:
It looks like we may have hurricane status approaching imminently. What rapid development on infrared satellite!

No pressure change as of most recent report. One buoy does not a hurricane make.
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Quoting Patrap:


I can see yer T-Showers tops,,and Im a rooting for it to make it here.

Been torrid today,..simply torrid.
Here too till about ten minutes ago!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1225. Ryuujin
Quoting RMM34667:


Where is the Question in this post?


The question was posted actually yesterday. And it was as simple as the one I posted after. It's why the crutch like clutching to the GFS model? Why aren't we simply trying to use that as a basis, use our eyes, and use the steering currents, what the Lows actually are and where to try and give the best possible path to forecast the track of the storm? Is it just me or is that why weather forecasting has gone downhill in the last twenty years. We have this marvelous new technology and we rely on it so much to tell us it's not raining outside that we don't turn to look at the water droplets hitting our windows.
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Quoting aquak9:
how many weeks out is 324 hours, ike? is that like, next year?

might as well be...

(dewey- it's AQUA. AQUA. As in, AQUA canine. Not AQUAK. I'm not a duck. I'm a dog.)


I always thought it was Aquak like "really crazy lady"
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Quoting Huracaneer:
While most to our eyes are focused on the far side of the Atlantic, there seems to be a trend of falling pressures and increased thunderstorm activity in the Gulf west of Florida. At the same time the CMC keeps on hinting (which I take with a grain of salt) of something developing near Florida. Is this the return of TD5, the zombie storm?


I see
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1221. Patrap


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Guess who formed tomorrow 5 years ago...

HURRICANE KATRINA
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1219. aquak9
yay taco!! hear hear!
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



Although I am not saying this IS an eye I did say do you think this could be an eye or eyewall developing remember we do not always know the true intensity of these storms... for instance Hurricane Alex has a ADT number of a cat 4 hurricane (or cat 3 cant remember) but it was only a 1 at the time of the readings... so ADT can be way off and so if this is way off we could have a 65-70 mph storm????
definitely not an eye not strong enough yet look at the RGB on her not the AVN in fact for a bit she looked a liuttle undressed but came back under
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1217. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
I don't care if IKE reads this or not, as I can only assume that "Poof" is his clever word for putting a user on ignore. But I will postulate this for the rest of the blog that seems to wish to have a level headed discussion of both tropical formation and forecasting.

If the GFS has the storm curving out to sea continually, or having a sharp right hand turn (Ala Alex earlier in the year) because of it's known cold bias, then why are we all 100% sure of it's projected path for Danielle now? I mean, I'm not hoping this thing hits the CONUS or any of the leeward islands, or bermuda. I'm simply not sticking my head in the sand as to the possibility that a computer generated model could be wrong. What do you all think?
well said. until model consensus has a recurve within 48 hours it is reasonable to question the turn being a foregone conclusion.
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apparently there is a buoy near to where this storm is
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Guys what u think of this?
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1214. Patrap
Quoting doorman79:
hiya Pat!! Hows life on the southshore? We getting a nice cooling shower up on the northend!!


I can see yer T-Showers tops,,and Im a rooting for it to make it here.

Been torrid today,..simply torrid.
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Quoting RMM34667:


Where is the Question in this post?


He never said he was asking a question
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1212. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike you got a reading on the buoy that door man just posted about


Which buoy?
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Some of the models take it up to a major in 156.
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Quoting Patrap:
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


hiya Pat!! Hows life on the southshore? We getting a nice cooling shower up on the northend!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
While most to our eyes are focused on the far side of the Atlantic, there seems to be a trend of falling pressures and increased thunderstorm activity in the Gulf west of Florida. At the same time the CMC keeps on hinting (which I take with a grain of salt) of something developing near Florida. Is this the return of TD5, the zombie storm?
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Quoting scott39:
Timing


Yeah, Timing, sometime in the next 7 to 20 days, yepper! LOL.
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1207. Patrap
Please remember were all in this together.
Life.

Esp when we track and discuss the Current .

We all have feelings,were all not PHD's.

I made a mistake with Ike yesterday myself,,and I regret it.
But I man up and apologize and move on.


No one wants disaster or calamity. if you do,,odds r your never seen,felt,,nor smelled it.

Lets all be a lil xtra patient this week as we will likely have a Major to watch,,and also,,come the weekend,a significant Anniversary for a Event 5 years ago along the Gulf Coast.

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Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
added two new models to model page
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1205. xcool
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Wind Speed (WSPD): 18.1 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR):
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Ryuujin:


I just love how you discount the GFS when it's not to suit your liking, but ride it's coat-tails when it says what you want it to say IKE. Stop relying so much on Models! They're there for /guidance/ not for factual basis. It's weather, anything can happen. That's why I'm not getting suckered into "this is going to be a fish storm" especially with the GFS model's known cold bias AND the fact that almost all of the other models rely on the GFS data stream.


Where is the Question in this post?
EDIT: And the sarcasim is obvious with the "I'm gonna board up" part.
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1202. Relix
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



Although I am not saying this IS an eye I did say do you think this could be an eye or eyewall developing remember we do not always know the true intensity of these storms... for instance Hurricane Alex has a ADT number of a cat 4 hurricane (or cat 3 cant remember) but it was only a 1 at the time of the readings... so ADT can be way off and so if this is way off we could have a 65-70 mph storm????


It just formed into a tropical storm. A few hours ago in fact. It isn't gonna jump like that in so little time, trust me =P
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It looks like we may have hurricane status approaching imminently. What rapid development on infrared satellite!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not sure where the trofs are located now, but I know 1 will come through and curve it towards the NW. Then a second more amplified trof will come in and recurve it fully. The question is, if these trofs will be amplified enough to dig south enough and recurve the cyclone before ridging sets in and sends the cyclone generally westward.

it is yet to be seen if they will dig that far south. I still believe that this storm will slow down while it get stronger missing the turn all-together. Please don't call me a Florida wishcaster I live in Arizona
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GFS/animation

NoGaps/animation

WRF/animation

ECMWF/animation

Here's some models.. didnt check if there old or not..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting Baybuddy:
Why don't redundent quotes count as violating community standards?
Because Taz don't say so.... Now as for Soon to be Hurricane Danielle well it looks to be very Strong off the East Coast in the Atlantic....

Taco :o)
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Quoting scott39:
Yep


Thanks for confirming that with me Scott39.

By the way, if you are looking for where steering troughs are located at, check out the CIMSS products:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

One of the best links for tropical weather I have found. I have made a forecast based on the speed of the troughs between 0300Z August 21 and 0300Z August 22.
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Ike you got a reading on the buoy that door man just posted about
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Quoting IKE:


PM me...I'll gladly give it to you.
103! wow.I have a ways to go because I have 0.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html


The whole enchilada
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1085
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Convection is still on the very edge of the convection?


Wow, did I really just say that. ROFL.

I meant the circulation is still on the very edge of the convection.
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1192. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


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1191. aquak9
how many weeks out is 324 hours, ike? is that like, next year?

might as well be...

(dewey- it's AQUA. AQUA. As in, AQUA canine. Not AQUAK. I'm not a duck. I'm a dog.)
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Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm just saying. And my questions are valid ones. Why would you ignore what I'm saying?


Cause he can't take it when people disagree with him.
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1188. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TS/D/XX
MARK
13.95N/35.57W

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Quoting Relix:


And there you prove my point. When that happened Fay was a 70mph Storm, borderline Hurricane. That can be expected. Danielle is but a 40mph storm at the moment undergoing gradual intensification. There's no eye forming.



Although I am not saying this IS an eye I did say do you think this could be an eye or eyewall developing remember we do not always know the true intensity of these storms... for instance Hurricane Alex has a ADT number of a cat 4 hurricane (or cat 3 cant remember) but it was only a 1 at the time of the readings... so ADT can be way off and so if this is way off we could have a 65-70 mph storm????
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1186. will45
Quoting Baybuddy:
Why don't redundent quotes count as violating community standards?


they have to be flagged 10 times
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1185. scott39
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Hmmmm,

After some soul searching, the best projected path for Danielle should cover from NE Texas to the NE US, includin Bermuda! Talk about a large cone, you can't go wrong with that! LOL.

JK.
Timing
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1184. IKE
Impressive on water vapor....

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1183. Relix
Also if I remember right Fay was weird and developed that "eye" overland. There were several explanations for that too. Friction, heat, etc. Still it's not a typical case.
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Whoa, that's some nasty dry air.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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