Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Where is STORM W?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A CDO needs to be directly over the center, the COC is on the edge of the convection.
Almost there, meant to write that in my sentence. Anyways, the circulation is completely under the convection, however, it isn't in the center of it, its off towards the east.

Shortwave
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1280. 7544
daniele wants to be the first buzsaw of the season and just might do it
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1279. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
I was lucky enought to Speak with NHC Forecaster Avila the day after Quikscat failed.

Its lil brother ASCAT isnt
as sophisticated,..but its a window into the Storm still.


Hopefully is doesn't take a SCAT too...
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
It looks like we may have hurricane status approaching imminently. What rapid development on infrared satellite!
are you a newbie to weather if not You should know Danielle is fighting the susytm above her, not blowing up into a hurricane immediately
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1275. IKE
Quoting Huracaneer:
Here is a little graphic of the falling pressures in the gulf west of Tampa (the buoy is 106 nautical miles west northwest of Tampa

By the way the FSU site Link now has the European model!


Nice on adding ECMWF.
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Impressive convection.
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1271. Patrap
I was lucky enought to Speak with NHC Forecaster Avila the day after Quikscat failed.

Its lil brother ASCAT isnt
as sophisticated,..but its a window into the Storm still.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to me like Danielle has developed a CDO.


A CDO needs to be directly over the center, the COC is on the edge of the convection.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


SURVEY SAYS!?!?!?!
I dunno, you tell me?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1267. smuldy
Quoting Huracaneer:
While most to our eyes are focused on the far side of the Atlantic, there seems to be a trend of falling pressures and increased thunderstorm activity in the Gulf west of Florida. At the same time the CMC keeps on hinting (which I take with a grain of salt) of something developing near Florida. Is this the return of TD5, the zombie storm?
not every system that forms off of florida is xxtd5. I might be wrong but I believe td5's energy is inte3racting with the low level trough to produce the noreaster the gfs shows in the latest runs, and what is in florida is a new remnant of an entirely different trough split.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


He never said he was asking a question


yeah he did.. but I'm not going to comment any further on this.

1161. Ryuujin 11:03 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting IKE:


It was a joke. I'm gonna end this....

poof!


I'm just saying. And my questions are valid ones. Why would you ignore what I'm saying?
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Quoting IKE:
Here's another buoy at 15N and 38W....north wind and 29.87 pressure...
Yea, there are a few out there, was just trying to give the link ;)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1264. IKE
Quoting CaptnDan142:


You were teasing?!?

And to think, I ran out and bought a D-cell batter and a 1/2 liter bottle of Aquifina... I was duped. Oh well, Guess these supplies will keep. ;-)


LOL.

GFS may be on to something in the GOM...too soon to know. If that was at 124 hours I wouldn't be teasing. I'd make sure I had a full tank of gasoline.
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pressures around the buoy seem to have been falling pretty fast Ike
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1262. aquak9
sigh...
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Quoting aquak9:
yay taco!! hear hear!
Hi ya Aquak9 sending some Love your way too :o)

Taco :o)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is a little graphic of the falling pressures in the gulf west of Tampa (the buoy is 106 nautical miles west northwest of Tampa

By the way the FSU site Link now has the European model!
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Looks to me like Danielle has developed a CDO.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1256. Dakster
May QUICKSCAT rest in peace. I sure do miss that satellite.
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
I see two waves of the coast that needs to be watched.Especially the on thats located to the south.This is probally the two other storms that the models were developing yesterday that follows Danielle put stay southward due to a ridge.
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1252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JupiterFL:


I always thought it was Aquak like "really crazy lady"
you mean aquack
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1251. IKE
Here's another buoy at 15N and 38W....north wind and 29.87 pressure...
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Dang it Pat, You posted the radar and now the rain has stopped. The sun is trying to peek back out.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1247. Dakster
Quoting aquak9:
uhmmm...thanks Jupiter? I think?


Maybe you should change your handle to waterdog so people would understand?

I like how the convective bursts in danielle are off the chart.... Does appear to be strengthening at the moment.
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1246. Ryuujin
Quoting PcolaDan:


He said "...my questions are valid ones."

And Ryuujin if you have never heard people use the term poof here you are obviously new here. Not Ike's term and used by many.


I am new here, I've stated that repeatedly, just as I've stated my questions to the blog repeatedly. It's simply obvious that some people either aren't comfortable debating them, or cannot find them.
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Quoting IKE:


And all I was doing was teasing.


You were teasing?!?

And to think, I ran out and bought a D-cell battery and a 1/2 liter bottle of Aquifina... I was duped. Oh well, Guess these supplies will keep. ;-)
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Quoting aquak9:
uhmmm...thanks Jupiter? I think?


Come on, you get it right?

A quack is someone who offers medical treatment or advice (ie weather) without the qualifications to do so.
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QUIKSCAT of Hurricane Katrina at Category 4 Strength:

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1241. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
apparently there is a buoy near to where this storm is


Here's one at 12N and 38W with winds from the NNW...Link

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Quoting Ryuujin:


I'm just saying. And my questions are valid ones. Why would you ignore what I'm saying?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


He never said he was asking a question


He said "...my questions are valid ones."

And Ryuujin if you have never heard people use the term poof here you are obviously new here. Not Ike's term and used by many.
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Hurricane Katrina's Track:



Peak Intensity:

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1237. Patrap
Katrina,The 17th St. Canal Plaque

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good evening everyone!!! hey any one worried about the blob in the gulf? i live on se tx coast and have kiddos starting school...any answers would be great!!
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Quoting IKE:


Which buoy?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13008
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1234. aquak9
uhmmm...thanks Jupiter? I think?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Guess who formed tomorrow 5 years ago...

HURRICANE KATRINA
Boooooo that storm sucked.Never bing it up again.Lol.
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1232. scott39
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Thanks for confirming that with me Scott39.

By the way, if you are looking for where steering troughs are located at, check out the CIMSS products:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

One of the best links for tropical weather I have found. I have made a forecast based on the speed of the troughs between 0300Z August 21 and 0300Z August 22.
Thanks, Great site and enjoyed you forecast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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