Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Anyone want to guess on the 11 am advisory? I'd say 65 mph 994 mb pressure.
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Hey Storm W if the tropical wave off the coast of Africa becomes Earl do you think it was also go out to sea?
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Quoting SLU:
Pre-Earl?



we could see 96L out of this one if i'm correct.
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Quoting StormW:


Oh man...don't even go there. That is so totally of the wall. I was referring to the folks that come on and make blanket statements, every other post from some of the same folks, and come on to stir things up...I mean, it's funny to, how every time something hits the water, as soon as it exits Africa, everyone wants to scream fish. When ya back it up with data you can post and show me...then I listen...and I am not talking 'model consensus" either.


I trust you, Storm and I thoroughly enjoy your well crafted updates and insight. I appreciate all of your hard work and the fact that you present a rational alternative to the NHC.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Maybe we had a relocation overnight.



Not a relocation. Late last night, 12am EST or so, it appeared that the center was being pulled WSW into the convection. Without visible confirmation though, that's a tough call, especially with a cloud canopy such as Danielle's. MIMIC was old at the time as well and suggested nothing. MIMIC & Visible this morning confirmed that it indeed was sucked into the convection and is presently working on a complete eye wall.
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Quoting Ryuujin:
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.


Again, this is because we adults share this forum with a lot of first- and second-graders; they get their feelings hurt when someone attempts to reason with them, and they start hitting the minus button, the ignore link, or--more and more frequently--the red exclamation button. It's to be expected; I'm sure they throw the same red-faced, floor-banging, door-kicking, breath-holding temper tantrum every time their mommy and daddy tell them to brush their teeth or go to bed.

By the way, if this doesn't apply to you, the reader, you won't be bothered by it. If you are bothered by it, well, we likely already knew you would be... ;-)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I see an eye forming!
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3123. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:


Yeah, two of them at least. You'd think that hom being the person on the blog with the most experience as a met, esp in tropical situations, that people would listen. Oh!

This is for everyone, a bit of info on the ridge since its currently affecting us in the midwest...the local mets are saying that the ridge is going to stay in place here for at least 7 days. (ie no rain bleh). So how does that affect the trof to the left and if this is true how will it affect Danielle's steering?
that is crazy and if poor terminology by me contributed in any way i really apologize as he is the best here and the lessons he gives are really informative for novices like me; as for the forecasted stall in the midwestern ridge my guess would be not much but i might be dead wrong on that; i think the weaknesses are already both east of that, it could effect the new aoi though i would think (keyword could). anyway bedtime for me, will be interested to see the track and environmentals when i wake up in 8-9 hours have a good day all and again storm ty for your contributions
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Quoting Chucktown:


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.


The met on WFTV in Orlando on Sunday did not even get to post a track of TD6 on air he directed viewers to go to the WFTV website to read about it.
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3121. scott39
Quoting StormW:


That's going to depend on how the current trof progresses, how far south it dips, and how strong it becomes during the next 48 hours.
thanks
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Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


I think NASA has a different study going on this summer. That may be it?
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Quoting SLU:
We could have a hurricane in 18 - 24 hours.



Very impressive sat pic. Convection is beginning to wrap around the center.
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potential 96L will also be a fish probably. I hate it when storms turn north out to sea Jeeez no excitement.
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Quoting StormW:


Chucktown,
I hear you on that! I did an internship down here at WTVT in Tampa...that stuff is just crazy!


Yea, it is very frustrating sometimes. At least we're not scripted like a lot of folks think. Weather is really the only portion of news that doesn't use a teleprompter. I supply the maps and forecast and have at it. And, since you've seen it in person, that 3 and half minutes feels more like a minute. I must admit though, when there is a weather situation, (severe or tropical) we do dictate to the producers how much time we need. Several research studies have shown that weather is the main reason people tune in to local news, no matter how bad we may miss a forecast, they always tune in tomorrow. Keep up the great work Storm. Agree or disagree, I enjoy popping in here to check out your synopsis. One of the best forecasting tools out there, right or wrong, is comparison to anothers work.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I said first thing this morning at 5:30 that the center was reforming... I guess I was right


It didnt reform. It just shifted under the heavy convection.
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Storm,

nice synopsis on Danielle. Thanks!

Sorry if I did not respond soon after sending me that website regarding El Nino and La Nina seasons and hurricane landfall probabilities. I did reply to you on your tropical synopsis page from Friday.

Very interesting document and thanks for sending it.

On another note, I it is too early but what are your thoughts on the AOI that is about to exit Africa?
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3112. Ryuujin
Quoting scott39:
What degrees do you expect a slow down or possible stall?
. I'm not StormW, but like I said, my local mets seem to think that the ridge over us (Indiana) isn't going anywhere soon. 7 days, at least
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I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?
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i dont forsee any stall in fact i think danielle will pick up speed as she makes the turn to the north and sucked up by the monster trough..danielle will continue to get stronger and she should max out at 130mph winds...perfect recipe no shear little or no dry air and a high right on top...a recipe for RAPID STRENGTHING...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.



Maybe we had a relocation overnight.
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warning watch out for invest 96L SOON. this storm will form fast.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
I said first thing this morning at 5:30 that the center was reforming... I guess I was right
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3106. surfmom
Interesting forecast/observation from the Surfer Perspective - This guy is also seeing what Stillwaiting mentioned in an earlier post as well as mentioned (thx) in post 3098
AURASURF/MICAH WEAVER/swfl GOMEX
Some junky knee high waves on local beach today. Maybe bigger elsewhere but I doubt it buoy is only 2ft as of now. Very rainy last night and over 2 inches fell here in St Pete. There is a 1009mb low in the gulf that will strengthen and torque a little bit so all you kids will go back to school with waves at the beach... Come on you can't skip the first day of school to go surfing. Hahaha. Respect your elders. Tuesday will be 'ol fart surfing day'. Looks waist high from the SW and choppy on Tuesday as that low starts to move N. Still a bump left for Wednesday: knee to thigh. Kids can surf after school.
Ahhh el Atlantico... starting to come to life. Looks like a pattern change in the long run.. Seems a little early but tons of east flow starting Friday. Kinda back door front looking as the whole ATL gets NE wind later in the period. Maybe we will get cooler breezy WX here in FL. Too bad the EC is going to be all choppy for this next swell. PR is gonna get the goods. East swell will go NE and be met by light SE winds so Next weekend looks real good down on the Isla del Encanto.
Have a good one!
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3105. scott39
Quoting StormW:


The second trof SHOULD keep the U.S. safe, it's just a matter of how far west she gets upon her slow down, or possible stall.
What degrees do you expect a slow down or possible stall?
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3104. Ryuujin
Quoting smuldy:
he had comments removed??? that should never happen. I wasn't jumping on him, or didnt mean to sound that way, I was being serious in saying he is the one person here that could curse me out for no reason and I would be fine with it because he adds more to this blog then jeff masters imo


Yeah, two of them at least. You'd think that hom being the person on the blog with the most experience as a met, esp in tropical situations, that people would listen. Oh!

This is for everyone, a bit of info on the ridge since its currently affecting us in the midwest...the local mets are saying that the ridge is going to stay in place here for at least 7 days. (ie no rain bleh). So how does that affect the trof to the left and if this is true how will it affect Danielle's steering?
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


I gotcha, your not on ignore.


Alright cool.

Just checking.
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TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned from 4.7degrees north of WestNorthWest to due West.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
NHC upgrades TD6 to TS.Danielle
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 13.9n35.4w - - 40knots . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF *14.0n35.3w*
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
23Aug - 06amGMT - 14.5n36.5w - - 50knots - - - - 997mb - NHC-ATCF *14.8n36.0w,45knots,1000mb*
23Aug - 09amGMT - 14.8n37.1w - - 60 mph . . . . . 997mb - NHC.Adv.7
23Aug - 12pmGMT - 14.8n38.7w - - 50knots - - - - 994mb - NHC-ATCF
~43.5knots=50mph _ _ _ 50knots=~57.5mph _ _ _ ~52.2knots=60mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

*before NHC reevaluated&altered TS.Danielle's path*

Copy&paste 13.9n35.4w-14.2n35.9w, 14.2n35.9w-14.5n36.5w, 14.5n36.5w-14.8n37.1w, 14.8n37.1w-14.8n38.7w, hex, bda, sid, pos into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

And CONGRATULATIONS to the WUbers who spotted a smoother, more westward movement than what the NHC had been posting through its TS-center positions. Especially to StormW who caught even this latest heading shift earlier than the NHC.
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3100. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Danielle Update..Video Blog


Nice forecast 03....worth listening to.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3099. scott39
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE SYNOPSIS AUGUST 23, 2010 ISSUED 9:15 A.M.
Thank you, Is it too soon to tell if the second trough will keep the Eastern US safe?
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danielle is getting stronger and should reach hurricane force today...nothing has changed danielle is being steered by the high to the north of her..she will continue on a wnw course for 48 hours then by the time danielle reaches 50-55west she will start to feel the weakness from this monster trough digging down off the east coast..danielle at that time will turn north and nne and accelerate a few hundred miles east of bermuda leaving the island with giant swells from the storm.danielle at that time should be a major hurricane topping out at 130mph winds....the united states east coast will have very little affect from danielle as she continues to visit the fish in the atlantic..this trough is very unusual for this time of the year you usually see this set up in late september..i will have more on danielle later...now our attn turns to the eastern gom ..a surface low could form in the next 48-72 hours on the back side of a cool front...it really depends how far south the front clears the coast to see what we will have to deal with a rainmaker or a possible storm.anything that develops will move west so it has to be watched very closely....we will have a pretty good idea later on..ill be back with more on this later...as of right now the ssps are marginal in the gom but the ssts are still in the upper 80s...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
wayfaringstranger

You probably have me on ignore, but Danielle is currently too far east for them to do a reconnaissance mission.


I gotcha, your not on ignore.
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3096. smuldy
Quoting Ryuujin:
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.
he had comments removed??? that should never happen. I wasn't jumping on him, or didnt mean to sound that way, I was being serious in saying he is the one person here that could curse me out for no reason and I would be fine with it because he adds more to this blog then jeff masters imo
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3094. SLU
This is what you expect to see on August 23rd.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.


Thanks. I came on here wondering why the coordinates seemed so off. This visual explains it beautifully.
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Quoting twhcracker:
i appreciate stormW and masters and people on here with a lot of know how because i cant depend on any tv weather available to me to really go into depth about things and i dont know enough about met to look at data online and translate it in any way. so its really kinda awesome i can come here and find out things three days before its on our local news.


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.
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3091. SLU

REPOST FROM AUGUST 21st

On August 21st through the years. The numbers in the brackets indicate the season's activity:

1995 - 7-3-1 (19-11-5)
1996 - 4-3-1 (13-9-6)
1997 - 5-2-0 (8-3-1)
1998 - 3-0-0 (14-10-3)
1999 - 3-1-0 (12-8-5)
2000 - 4-2-1 (15-8-3)
2001 - 3-0-0 (15-9-4)
2002 - 3-0-0 (12-4-2)
2003 - 5-3-0 (16-7-3)
2004 - 5-3-2 (15-9-6)
2005 - 9-4-2 (28-15-7)
2006 - 4-0-0 (10-5-2)
2007 - 5-1-1 (15-6-2)
2008 - 6-2-1 (16-8-5)
2009 - 3-1-1 (9-3-2)
2010 - 3-1-0 (n/a)

Climatology (1966 - 2009) - 3-1-0

Average after August 21st (1995 - 2009) - 10-6-3

Average after August 21st of the two analog
years from the sample (1998 & 2005)- 16-10.5-4

CSU forecast - 18-10-5

Analog years post-August 21st average plus observed - 19-11.5-4


FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

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COC now at 14.5N 39.0W moving W
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12376
wayfaringstranger

You probably have me on ignore, but Danielle is currently too far east for them to do a reconnaissance mission.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


and that's fine. But who gets to decide who is qualified enough to post? I paid for my membership here, I'm not allowed to post? I never post forecasts, just ask questions mostly. But if Dr. Masters wanted to limit participation, I'm sure he would.


Of course you can post, as can anyone--even those who didn't pay for a membership. But being a supposedly civilized group of adults, the hope is we would all be humble enough to speak what we know but shut up when we don't. StormW--for one, and their are others--gives excellent analysis, and explains in detail why he believes this or that will happen, and when. On the opposite end of the spectrum, however, there are a group of knuckleheads on here who treat the forum either like a first-grade classroom when the teacher steps out, a place to practice their lame stand-up comedy, or--maybe worst of all--a dumping ground for their baseless, non-scientific opinions and wishcasts and fearcasts, most of them offered without a single shred of actual proof. Any uneducated doofus can come on here and shout "Fish storm!!! Fish storm!!!", or "I know the NHC says Danielle's moving NW, but I think it's moving straight south!", or "I think the NHC is lying; Danielle is already a Cat 5 and it's headed for New York, but they just don't want to tell us so we don't panic!!!" Do those doofi have the right to post such garbage? I suppose so. But do they have a need? Of course not. You know that, and I know that. We just wish that they knew that...
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3086. smuldy
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Not sure, but if I wanted to be certain about this track and the storm's intensity track given Bermuda as a very probably danger area, then I would send er up...
would be nice if they would so i could wake up to some obs data later this afternoon, but my guess would be for budgetary reasons they would wait til it was n or w; but its a total wild guess there so idk crossing fingers they do
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting. Looks like the center went under the deep convection. Eye seems to be forming.



Wow! It really does look like it nose-dived SW on that.
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Credit it to those who spotted it a few hours ago.

Usually when people scream about centre relocation on an established storm, it's just misreading the visuals or satellite imagery.

But, this time it appears to be correct.
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3083. Ryuujin
It's pretty sad to see some people jump on StormW for being honest and open on this blog and causing him to have two comments removed "below" community standards when we have other bloggers just repeating the same line over and over again. That being said, good morning all.
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I have the center estimated at 14.4N/39W, just my guess!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8001

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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