Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:



A A/C 110 Unit and a good generator.

That's it. Have central a/c but made sure I bought a window unit to run off the generator in case of another lengthy power outage.
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1431. Dakster
Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.


That is a tough one as the most common ones are the most important. Generator and Portable A/C are tops on my list. I have an ice maker that you pour water into and works on a simple 110V outlet. Other than that how are you set for tools (chainsaw, pliers, screwdrivers, make sure batteries for drills are fully charged) CASH is good too since a lot of places couldn't take credit cards due to the phone being out. As much as everyone says you should fill the bathtub and garbage cans with water I've never had to use it. Although that water would be good for flushing toilets if county water was not available. Obviously if you have well water and no generator it would be a must. I've always been able to "get out" and go somewhere that has not been affecting. (even after Andrew in South Florida)
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Quoting MrstormX:
OPC 96hr Forecast shows a new tropical system North of The Antilles, and something suspicious going on near the British Isles.





New system?

Thats Danielle.
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1429. smuldy
Quoting katrinakat5:
seamule i want to see danielle bust through a 750mb trough to get to the united states...thats a huge force field protecting the us from danielle...not going to happen...this is the kind of deepening trough you see in late september not in august...we are so lucky to have this now and we have another one behind that not as strong though..
IF the troughs really show up that deep without ridging behind it. That is why Bermuda may need to watch out and the whole east coast should keep an eye out for any changes. That kind of event is rare for August and calls into question the reliability of it actually materializing especially given the phase of the nao.
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1428. Asta
re:1414. Bordonaro
What's so scary?


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1425. will45
Quoting Patrap:


5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 22
Location: 13.4°N 35.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb



well i told um a sea going tug boat couldn't tow it down that way but what do i know lol
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
OPC 96hr Forecast shows a new tropical system North of The Antilles, and something suspicious going on near the British Isles.



Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1422. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

UPGRADED AT 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR
13.4N 35.1W...OR ABOUT 630 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO
45 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 36W-45W...FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 38W-40W...AND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 31W-34W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

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Danielle likely a 45-50MPH TS as SC2007 said.
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1420. Patrap







Hurricane Preparation 2010
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Quoting Dakster:
Danielle is un Hurican de pescada..


hey. wrong kind of fish jaja...

The Fish in the ocean =Peces
The fish on your dinner plate= Pescado
=)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
A realistic intensity estimate for Danielle is probably around 45 maybe 50mph.


I agree, CIMSS tends to overdo trends anyway. It did when it was exposed and put up the rapid dissipation flag. Now that it covered itself up a little CIMSS ADT jumps it up to 60mph with Adj and Raw (and Final too, it's just .1 below the other two) T#'s approaching hurricane status.
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1416. Asta
Hey Aqua-K9
When are ya gonna adopt another pup or two?
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1415. IKE
Look at that dry air. Birmingham,AL has a forecast low in mid 60's later this week with lower dew points. Knoxville,TN low in the upper 50's Thursday night....

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Quoting Asta:

Yep- could be a
"NorthEaster"-
perfect storm anyone?
Heads up New England!

POSSIBLE?? Yes. Scary, I repeat, SCARY scenario~~
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1413. Patrap
Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.



A A/C 110 Unit and a good generator.

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1412. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
the NOGAPS on that map.... shows the storm heading west north of the islands do you see that


No it doesn't. If you run the loop you see a general NW motion that continues thru 120 hours.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
the NOGAPS on that map.... shows the storm heading west north of the islands do you see that


Its the NOGAPS.

Not really the 'reliable' model.
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1409. xcool




SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 1003 hPa MSW = 48 kt
ADT: 1000 hPa 45 kt Scene: SHEAR
CIMSS AMSU: 1003 hPa 49 kt Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1408. Dakster
Quoting Asta:

Hmm that's quite a spread ; )


Yep. Makes you wonder what model consistency looks like. (one solid line?)
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1407. Asta
Quoting weatherman12345:

srry but your feelin is wrong.... the second trough will take this storm towards burmuda or the extreme northern portions of the us

Yep- could be a
"NorthEaster"-
perfect storm anyone?
Heads up New England!
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Quoting Asta:

Hmm that's quite a spread ; )


No need for sarcastic comments on the blog.
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Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Quoting aquak9:
ya'll aren't gonna let this go, are ya.

ok I thought my screen name and my email addy had to be the same. WaterDog and every version of it was already taken many many years ago on AOL. Comcast, yahoo, gmail, everything. Aquak9 was the best I could come up with.

Now I answer my phone as Aqua. I morphed from a semi-intelligent human to a weather-obsessed wet dog."


I had a yellow lab and a chesapeake bay retriever. My vanity plate was WETDOGS..got rid of it when they died...
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Quoting AllStar17:


I was looking at this:


Plus, some curve it away from land, and some turn it westward toward the end of the forecast period. Beyond 5 days is very uncertain at this point.
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the NOGAPS on that map.... shows the storm heading west north of the islands do you see that
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1400. Dakster
Danielle is un Hurican de pescada..
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Quoting hydrus:
Notice the mighty pin hole...jk...really...jk.

Danielle literally ATE 2/3rds of the system to it's NE!! Cannibal-caster :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
seamule i want to see danielle bust through a 750mb trough to get to the united states...thats a huge force field protecting the us from danielle...not going to happen...this is the kind of deepening trough you see in late september not in august...we are so lucky to have this now and we have another one behind that not as strong though..
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A realistic intensity estimate for Danielle is probably around 45 maybe 50mph.
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1396. Asta
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


?


Hmm that's quite a spread ; )
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1394. Patrap
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
TS Danielle COC is now located at 13.4N 36.5W moving west


5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 22
Location: 13.4°N 35.1°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

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I see the 12Z NOGAPS is now showing lower pressure in the lower GOM/BOC. This version of the WRF has been showing it for about a day now.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


?



I was looking at this:
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1391. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
Do you think they are going to name this depression Danielle soon??????

Grothar...lives in the past. But that's ok.


Been tracking it all day, just wanted to see who was paying attention. Notice the 3 questions marks? Good job, aqua!
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1390. Dakster
For all of us on the intensity of Danielle. read what the NHC says:

.THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE.
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR
APPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY
3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.


Interesting... Yet Danielle is definetly intensifying - I wouldn't go with RI yet though. (in MY opinion)
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Is it me or is the BWS tracking this one towards the CONUS?

Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1388. IKE
Daniel is travelin tonight on a plane....Link


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1387. Patrap
RAAMB page,DANIELLE


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Tomorrow's word of the day: Hurricane


Fish will be said a lot more times, I guarantee it.
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TS Danielle COC is now located at 13.4N 36.5W moving west
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1384. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:
Danielle at 23.:15UTC. Fasten your seat belts, she's intensifying at DMIN!!
Notice the mighty pin hole...jk...really...jk.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


"It's decoupling!!"

"Hurricane by morn'!"


Thats why its good to take brakes from watching the blog.

Could lose yer mind. Many examples of that here.
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Tomorrow's word of the day: Hurricane
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.