Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting extreme236:
Danielle likely a 45-50MPH TS as SC2007 said.

Yup!
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Bingo!

22/2345 UTC 13.7N 35.6W T3.0/3.0 DANIELLE
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1479. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


Good thing I didn't say it was going to head west due to the ridge.

Yeah!
LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Since it hasn't happened, we wont know.


it amazes me how people ask this question, like we actually know

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1477. Grothar
Quoting Asta:
Links on
The great hurricane of 1938

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/


http://www.nwc.navy.mil/weather/Photo%20Archive/1938_hurricane_text.htm
The Navy's archive of photos of the storm.

http://www.townonline.com/brewster/news/local_regional/cc_newcahurricanes08082003.htm

From The CapeCodder, a story on the storms that ravaged New England, and the inevitability of major storms hitting again.


http://www.newsday.com/extras/lihistory/7/hs730a.htm

Long Island) Newsday's story on the Great Hurricane.

http://courant.ctnow.com/projects/cane38/photos.stm

Connecticut's Hartford Courant with coverage of "A Woeful Wind." Excellent with stories, photos, memories, video and links.


This all from
http://www.southstation.org/hurr1.htm



All you have to do is ask me about it!! Don't forget, I was born on Long Island. Just won't tell you the year.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No way this is Florida bound.

Sorry Florida is already retired, no more please.
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Quoting waverunner:
Besides wave action to East Bermuda, is Danielle is a fish storm?


Since it hasn't happened, we wont know.
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1472. smuldy
Quoting Asta:

You are forgetting the Great Hurricane of 1938
that hit New England...
was there no strong ridge behind it? there was at least one on top of it in nova scotia just like with gloria or it wouldve curved out to sea; not saying deep august troughs can't happen, saying that in this phase of the nao and with no strong ridge west on the models to force a trough that strong that abnormally south the possibility exists that the models are wrong. possibility also exists that they are right. Given that setup I say Bermuda is in the middle and at highest risk, it could go out to sea, or it COULD (keyword) hit the east coast SOMEWHERE (other keyword). Until the recurve is showing within 48 hours I still will remain watchful.
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Besides wave action to East Bermuda, is Danielle a fish storm?
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TS Danielle is now the second strongest TC of the 2010 atlantic hurricane season with that 1003 mb pressure lol.
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1467. jonelu
Wow...those cold cloud tops are really firing up over Danielle....is that an oxymoron? ;-p
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Quoting extreme236:
Model guidance is in fairly good agreement for the next 5 days.


Yeah.

Im fairly confident that this is still headed out to sea.
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1464. pottery
Heh!!
Daniele is looking good this evening.
Building convection through the end of DMin too.
Good thing I did not say it was gonna struggle because of Dry Air!
LOL.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Sooooo...Florida dodges another bullet?

Good. HOWEVER, 75 million people live in the New England-Washington DC corridor, called the "Megalopolis"...
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting CaneAddict:


Well if it keeps up with it's organization and intensifying it could be alot stronger in three hours. Possibly 70MPH.

70mph in 3 hours?

This isnt going through any type of RI. Its just blown up some cold convection near the center. IF RI was going to occur, the center would have to be in the middle of the convection which it clearly isnt.

Not sure why a lot of people are getting so excited.



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Model guidance is in fairly good agreement for the next 5 days.
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Wow, that ATCF best track hushed the blog, lol.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Sooooo...Florida dodges another bullet?


No way this is Florida bound.
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Quoting Dakster:


Don't forget the stuff you need to install it! I actually like the portable ones that stay int eh room and use a dryer vent in the window... Easier to install/uninstall and you can move them from room to room. They are not that much more $$ than a windowshaker A/C.


Good idea, yeah that would be much easier to deploy without messing my windows. By the way Patrap's 2010 preparedness page is pretty good if you haven't seen it.
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1456. aquak9
baybuddy- that's sweet, my plate says WATRDOG
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00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS
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Quoting Bordonaro:

IF Danielle moves too close to New England, they may get hammered!

Models are bringing the TC close to Bermuda. IF the ridge forces Danielle towards the E Coast, which is possible, watch out.

Sooooo...Florida dodges another bullet?
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1452. xcool
AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Winds up 5mph pressure down 4mb. Remember, that this is not official information and the data will most likely change in the official advisory.

00z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082300, , BEST, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 1003, TS
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1450. Asta
Links on
The great hurricane of 1938

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/


http://www.nwc.navy.mil/weather/Photo%20Archive/1938_hurricane_text.htm

The Navy's archive of photos of the storm.

http://www.townonline.com/brewster/news/local_regional/cc_newcahurricanes08082003.htm

From The CapeCodder, a story on the storms that ravaged New England, and the inevitability of major storms hitting again.


http://www.newsday.com/extras/lihistory/7/hs730a.htm

Long Island) Newsday's story on the Great Hurricane.

http://courant.ctnow.com/projects/cane38/photos.stm

Connecticut's Hartford Courant with coverage of "A Woeful Wind." Excellent with stories, photos, memories, video and links.


This all from
http://www.southstation.org/hurr1.htm
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.


Liquor. Alcoholic beverages to help pass the time when there's no electricity, TV, running water, A/C, etc.
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1448. Dakster
Quoting Huracaneer:

Thanks Patrap, have been thinking about getting a small window unit so I can at least cool one room in my house. If Danielle is below Latitude 25 by the time it gets to longitude 70 I will spring for one.


Don't forget the stuff you need to install it! I actually like the portable ones that stay in the room and use a dryer vent in the window... Easier to install/uninstall and you can move them from room to room. They are not that much more $$ than a windowshaker A/C.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1447. smuldy
Quoting xcool:
fantastic graphic
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Depending on satellite estimates we receive from the agencies is likely what we will see as the set intensity at 11p.m EDT. If both SAB and TAFB give Danielle a T-number of 3.0 chances are that the NHC will bump it too 50mph. Keep in mind right now both agencies are at T2.5 so it isn't far fetched.


Well if it keeps up with it's organization and intensifying it could be alot stronger in three hours. Possibly 70MPH.
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Quoting aquak9:
ya'll aren't gonna let this go, are ya.

ok I thought my screen name and my email addy had to be the same. WaterDog and every version of it was already taken many many years ago on AOL. Comcast, yahoo, gmail, everything. Aquak9 was the best I could come up with.

Now I answer my phone as Aqua. I morphed from a semi-intelligent human to a weather-obsessed wet dog.
ok sorry but I was trying to catch up but I like the name by the way.... Aqua "Big Smiles" here

Taco :o)
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.


Air Freshner! there was about a week in 2004 where we had no power but was just too tired of putting the plywood up and down. And there was another storm in the gulf (Ivan) No air conditioning no fans.
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1441. hydrus
Quoting Bordonaro:

Danielle literally ATE 2/3rds of the system to it's NE!! Cannibal-caster :o)
Some of the models devour it completely. It will be a big hurricane.
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Quoting Asta:
re:1414. Bordonaro
What's so scary?



IF Danielle moves too close to New England, they may get hammered!

Models are bringing the TC close to Bermuda. IF the ridge forces Danielle towards the E Coast, which is possible, watch out.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


New system?

Thats Danielle.


WTF your right yet the OPC clearly has this under their 96-hr forecast. Serious Error, read the link http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4355
Depending on satellite estimates we receive from the agencies is likely what we will see as the set intensity at 11p.m EDT. If both SAB and TAFB give Danielle a T-number of 3.0 chances are that the NHC will bump it too 50mph. Keep in mind right now both agencies are at T2.5 so it isn't far fetched.
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1436. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


hey. wrong kind of fish jaja...

The Fish in the ocean =Peces
The fish on your dinner plate= Pescado
=)


Sorry, not that great at spanish... Thanks for correcting.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
1435. Asta
Quoting smuldy:
IF the troughs really show up that deep without ridging behind it. That is why Bermuda may need to watch out and the whole east coast should keep an eye out for any changes. That kind of event is rare for August and calls into question the relaibility of it actually materializing especially given the phase of the nao.

You are forgetting the Great Hurricane of 1938
that hit New England...
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Quoting Patrap:



A A/C 110 Unit and a good generator.


Thanks Patrap, have been thinking about getting a small window unit so I can at least cool one room in my house. If Danielle is below Latitude 25 by the time it gets to longitude 70 I will spring for one.
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1433. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING E OF 91W INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN THE SE UNITED STATES COASTLINE ACROSS NE FLORIDA
TO NEAR 28N89W...S OF MOBILE ALABAMA. A SEABREEZE TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THE WRN
HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017
MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N94W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES W OF 91W. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting Patrap:



A A/C 110 Unit and a good generator.

That's it. Have central a/c but made sure I bought a window unit to run off the generator in case of another lengthy power outage.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.