Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneDT:
hey guys ive been a lurker for a while. so what is everyone's thoughts on where danielle is going?
Depends on where you live; because I swear in most eyes that is where it is heading, and the black line in the middle of the cone better point directly at your house or the NHC is wrong and there is some conspiracy. I haven't figured out what the conspiracy is, but there is one if the storm is not pointed at your house.
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1579. Becca36
Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.

Bodum coffee press and already ground coffee.
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1578. xcool
danielle very close to 40w
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
the odds are that this is going out to sea. but there is always that chance that this will make landfall.
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1576. Hhunter



wow
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Quoting Patrap:
TYVM..


Anytime, Anytime lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Hoping to get a good thunderstorm in my area. Just moved to Baton Rouge, LA from Tampa, FL and the lack of thunderstorms in the afternoon is making me miss home. And others on from Louisiana that can make me feel better and tell me when I can expect a good thunderstorm?
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1573. Patrap
Please post ALL the ATCF Graphical Info.

00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1572. IKE
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thanks stormchaser for the models. yah ive seen that they think this thing is going out to sea. but sometimes our own intution can be smarter than the computers
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I'd be changing my shorts about now if that actually comes to pass!!!

A CAT 2, 3 or 4 hurricane making a bee-line for the SE US is scary...


LOL.......ya! You got that right Brother. Certainly within a much stronger possiblity than it was 2 days ago.
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1567. Patrap
TYVM..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
Quoting HurricaneDT:
hey guys ive been a lurker for a while. so what is everyone's thoughts on where danielle is going?


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Quoting MrstormX:
Common Scenario: Storm curves, makes a hit on Newfoundland and turns extra-tropical soon afterwords.

This may not occur.

IF a blocking ridge rebuild in, then Danielle will make a bee-line for the SE US coast.

This has NOT been a "normal year"!!!!
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Quoting Patrap:
Feel the sizzle..be da sizzle.


Ahhhhhhhh.

O man itsa Raining ..

i sent that south to ya!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting xcool:
HurricaneDT...keep an eye on danielle


yup the models keep shifting. who knows where this thing will go. theyre never accurate this far out
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Quoting btwntx08:

1532. Stormchaser2007 12:26 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
The 00z dynamic models have shifted east

I was kind of expecting that.

very slighty yes but some at the moved it west


I see no model on the 00z dynamic plot that shows a W shift.

00z

18z
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1561. xcool
HurricaneDT...keep an eye on danielle
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Common Scenario: Storm curves, makes a hit on Newfoundland and turns extra-tropical soon afterwords.
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We had a few gushers a little while ago here in Panama City. Lots of thunder.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Evening everyone. After reviewing all the models......looks like they are about split on a high rolling off the East Coast and trapping Danielle and forcing a turn back toward the West while the rest seem to split the highs and takes the weakness. We better hope she does not slow down slower than models are forecasting or she gets trapped and heads back West toward the ConUs.

This would not be good...



I'd be changing my shorts about now if that actually comes to pass!!!

A CAT 2, 3 or 4 hurricane making a bee-line for the SE US is scary...
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hey guys ive been a lurker for a while. so what is everyone's thoughts on where danielle is going?
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1555. xcool



update image.move to wnw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Thanks, mojofearless! That's exactly what I was looking for, practical advice. Sounds like you have a story to tell. Should talk about it on your page, would be useful for some of us who have not been through a major, but it's going to happen some day to the Tampa Bay Area (who knows when) and it's going to be very ugly. I hope to be ready.
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1553. Patrap
Feel the sizzle..be da sizzle.


Ahhhhhhhh.

O man itsa Raining ..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1550. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Pott. Danielle is forecast to be a large and intense storm..Your thoughts?

Well, this afternoon I was thinking that she was going to have some issues with dry to the north and west.
Obviously not enough dry to prevent this latest improvement. Looks good...
I have no idea about the track, so will go with the models generally NW on that.
As to large and intense. With conditions the way they are, I would not be at all surprised. Lots of high-octane out there....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24461
Evening everyone. After reviewing all the models......looks like they are about split on a high rolling off the East Coast and trapping Danielle and forcing a turn back toward the West while the rest seem to split the highs and takes the weakness. We better hope she does not slow down slower than models are forecasting or she gets trapped and heads back West toward the ConUs.

This would not be good...


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20443
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed.

Food for thought.


I've had a feeling this one could be big from the beginning. I hope the fishcasters are correct. The ants are building giant sand mountains here. Of course ex 5 is crossing us for the third time.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
They took it into consideration when they made it a TS (as noted in the 5p.m EDT Discussion) but I assume that that is a rare thing.


Yeah they do use it occasionally for TS's, but when it comes to hurricanes, thats when the ADT becomes much more accurate and sometimes better than the other estimates.
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Still waiting for TAFB.
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1545. Patrap
Outflow Mojo and relief..

Hopefully

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1544. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


and to think, a lot of people don't even make it to their 80s to forge those kinds of memories.


Why, did I post something??
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Looking at the historical tracks map, and there is quite a spread, historically speaking. Pretty interesting to note how many storms became major hurricanes. Looks like Danielle will follow suit.
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1542. xcool
f5f5f5
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting LADobeLady:


I wonder how the FEMA response would be if something hit DC?

Scary scenario, DC would be under several feet of water if a hurricane hit just south of the city.
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Quoting Huracaneer:
Ok, the images of Danielle, DestinJeff's favorite graphic and others have sent me delving into my hurricane supplies kit. Predictions for the season are interesting, but seeing an actual storm intensify (even if it's a long way away) gets me motivated. Usually the blog does not like to talk about preparedness but I will ask anyway. What unusual item (not the standard water, radios, etc) has somebody found really useful during or after a storm.
dry ice
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1539. Ossqss
click to enlarge





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Just a few words in regards to Danielle-

1) The faster and stronger this storm becomes, the better chances it has to become a fish storm, and not effect anyone, including Bermuda.

Upper level winds will influence a stronger system, and would make her go further north and shift her track to the east.

2) Storms this far out in longitude typically take the C route and curve out to sea.

So, if you are a "wishcaster", (i hate these terms, because a real forecaster doesn't wish or downcast anything. If they do,they don't have a job) then you want Danielle to have difficulty developing.

But seriously, keep an eye on it, and admire how it develops.
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SHIPS at 00z peaks at 85kts @ 84 hours then levels off.
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Quoting extreme236:
T3.0=45kts/50MPH

CIMSS ADT usually isn't taken into consideration until the system reaches hurricane status.
They took it into consideration when they made it a TS (as noted in the 5p.m EDT Discussion) but I assume that that is a rare thing.
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1534. Patrap
LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128871
1533. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Those models are no good, Patrap. The date says the 23rd, those are tomorrow's maps. You progonisticator-caster.
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The 00z dynamic models have shifted east

I was kind of expecting that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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