Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Danielle could potentially impact Bermuda, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Anywhere else is doubtful at best.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1630. pottery
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Do you have a trip planned to Bermuda soon?

Not as far as I know...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Look for a high end Cat 4. near NYC..


I wonder where your from.
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1628. Becca36
Quoting Huracaneer:

Well, I do have Nescafe instant coffee in my kit (sacrilege I know).

The fact that both TampaSpin and StormW are thinking west bound for Danielle is got me more than a little concerned.

Oh yeah and UHT half and half as well...I'm a bit of a coffee snob even during extended power outages. LOL I'm in Southeast FL and although I feel pretty sure this area is out of the woods, there are a couple(cough,cough) of storms that were slightly...unpredictable in their ultimate tracks. So, I always keep a wary eye on these things.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think if she is large enough and gets to a major, it very well could happen

if the weakness is not very large, she could amplify the ridge enough to where the first weakness has no effect


Exactly, it usually takes a CAt4 or higher to do such a thing, but the possiblity certainly is very possible. I believe if we do see a Cat. 4 storm the possiblity will be highly likely to happen as the High builds back in the extra heat will build that high in faster and stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Hey!
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1624. Vero1
Evening StormW
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
IVCN takes it to a 130mph major hurricane...1mph shy of category 4 status.


Meet the GFNI...135 knots lol

AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 0, 140N, 353W, 40, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 12, 153N, 381W, 43, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 24, 164N, 416W, 43, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 36, 174N, 450W, 46, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 48, 187N, 478W, 54, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 60, 207N, 503W, 57, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 72, 224N, 531W, 61, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 84, 240N, 557W, 66, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 96, 258N, 579W, 75, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 108, 275N, 595W, 89, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 120, 293N, 599W, 109, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, GFNI, 132, 311N, 591W, 135, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I live in Oldsmar and believe that Bermuda will be the only land threatend by Danielle.

I think Atlantic Canada & maybe even Maine could also be threatened.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I live in Macon, GA and I believe Danielle will go just a little east of Bermuda and a little east of Nova Scotia lol


Look for a high end Cat 4. near NYC..
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Quoting pottery:

Trinidad here.
It is NOT coming this way....
Maybe Bermuda.
Do you have a trip planned to Bermuda soon?
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Quoting pottery:

Trinidad here.
It is NOT coming this way....
Maybe Bermuda.
Louisiana here, its going where she feels like it lol. Hiya Pottery
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1616. smuldy
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1581. sebastianflorida 12:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Everyone now should respond to this, state where you live and where you think Danielle is going; bet it would prove your statement false

I live in St Pete, FL and I think Danielle is headed near Bermuda and Nova Scotia and will not be a fish storm.
Miami Beach, too soon to tell, but latest info would put highest odds (23%?) just due east of bermuda, depends on strength of ridge and depth of troughs
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 527
live here in se mass and we have been lucky for many years to have a front move thru in time to save us from a hit thinking sooner or later we will have a storm that misses the sweep and moves in on us
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1614. flsky
Quoting Hhunter:
preparedness...generator can be nice if you can afford and use safely..never enough water and non perishable food...methods to stay cool are important

I have a couple of battery operated fans. I think they're the only thing that would help me sleep if power goes.
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IVCN takes it to a 130mph major hurricane...1mph shy of category 4 status.

AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 0, 0N, 0W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 12, 0N, 0W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 24, 0N, 0W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 36, 0N, 0W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 48, 0N, 0W, 63, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 60, 0N, 0W, 65, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 72, 0N, 0W, 65, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 84, 0N, 0W, 67, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 96, 0N, 0W, 73, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 108, 0N, 0W, 82, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 120, 0N, 0W, 95, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2010082300, 03, IVCN, 132, 0N, 0W, 113, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Danielle is now passing about 30-35 miles south of the next forecast point
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1611. pottery
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1581. sebastianflorida 12:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Everyone now should respond to this, state where you live and where you think Danielle is going; bet it would prove your statement false

I live in St Pete, FL and I think Danielle is headed near Bermuda and Nova Scotia and will not be a fish storm.

Trinidad here.
It is NOT coming this way....
Maybe Bermuda.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
1609. Vero1
I hear StormW's chair squeaking.
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1608. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1607. SLU
This is the sort of robust development we've been expecting all year.


Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
I live in Macon, GA and I believe Danielle will go just a little east of Bermuda and a little east of Nova Scotia lol
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting TampaSpin:
Another blogger pointed out how Danielle might just help build its own high to her NW if she gets large enough. Right now, that might just happen. A storm that started with an "A" did something very simialar to that if you all recall.


I think if she is large enough and gets to a major, it very well could happen

if the weakness is not very large, she could amplify the ridge enough to where the first weakness has no effect
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting DestinJeff:


That is what takes of D for us. i think.


DJ, I still think there is a chance for Danielle to go South if this damn Mexican High Pressure system keeps the Low Pressure system coming down from Canada up to the north and exerts more influence on Danielle to keep her south.

Folks, I have lived in the DFW metroplex for 21 years (actually closer to 31 years, with a little stint in California and 16 months mobilized for Iraqi Freedom in DC) and this Mexican HP system is really tough this year. 104 today in Fort Worth and we are looking at probably having a season of 100 degree or more days that will be in the top three in recorded history in this area. Thank the Lord we got 11 straight days of rainfall back at the end of June and 1st week of July (never have seen that happen) or my waterbill would be horrible. This series of Mexican High Pressure systems that basically does not go anywhere and rebuilds quickly after weakening is responsible for all the rainfall that has gone to the north into the Midwest this year. The only rain we see is the rare weak low that sneaks in and causes a few, intense thunderstorms (they did not make it here yesterday and today before moving east and dumping all that rain on Louisiana and Alabama).

Do not underestimate it (the Mexican High Pressure System and its effect all the way into the South Atlantic). It may keep LP systems from having a major effect on the Western Atlantic this year and force systems coming off Africa to steer south into the GOM.
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Quoting Becca36:

Bodum coffee press and already ground coffee.
Much as I hate the stuff a jar of back up instant.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
1602. flsky
Quoting Hurricanes101:


We have been getting rain on most of the days in the last 2 months

and it rained like crazy this morning and is raining again now

never heard anyone move from somewhere to Florida and say they miss the thunderstorms lmao

In ECF we've hardly any at all in the last 2 months! Sea breeze always blows them away from us. Send some this way!
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1601. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
The track will be an interesting one for sure, because it will almost certainly effect what will develop behind it. What ever happens the peak of the season is upon us and it looks like a busy couple of months.

True that!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24801
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1581. sebastianflorida 12:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Everyone now should respond to this, state where you live and where you think Danielle is going; bet it would prove your statement false

I live in St Pete, FL and I think Danielle is headed near Bermuda and Nova Scotia and will not be a fish storm.
I live in Miami, Fl and I think Danielle is headed for Bermuda, maybe a bit east of it, but the general area of Bermuda.
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Another blogger pointed out how Danielle might just help build its own high to her NW if she gets large enough. Right now, that might just happen. A storm that started with an "A" did something very simialar to that if you all recall.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Becca36:

Bodum coffee press and already ground coffee.

Well, I do have Nescafe instant coffee in my kit (sacrilege I know).

The fact that both TampaSpin and StormW are thinking west bound for Danielle is got me more than a little concerned.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


either way, its not a fish storm, sorry fishcasters

Danielle has already succumb to shear earlier today.

Looked bad, then she ATE 2/3rds of the area of Low pressure to its NE.

And now she's throwing off -85C cloud tops for the last 3 hrs. And shear appears to be decreasing as the Low to its NE goes pffft!

Link below to AVN Tropical Atlantic loop. Notice the area of the L pressure NE of Danielle is going away!
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1581. sebastianflorida 12:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Everyone now should respond to this, state where you live and where you think Danielle is going; bet it would prove your statement false

I live in St Pete, FL and I think Danielle is headed near Bermuda and Nova Scotia and will not be a fish storm.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1595. Hhunter
preparedness...generator can be nice if you can afford and use safely..never enough water and non perishable food...methods to stay cool are important
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


We have been getting rain on most of the days in the last 2 months

and it rained like crazy this morning and is raining again now

never heard anyone move from somewhere to Florida and say they miss the thunderstorms lmao

I love the thunderstorms, have since I was a little girl. I've gotten some rain, especially on the LSU campus where it flooded a coupled days ago, but I'm not looking for just rain. I want a good, lightning filled thunderstorm. Here in a flash, gone just as quickly.
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1593. Ossqss
click to enlarge



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1592. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Well, this afternoon I was thinking that she was going to have some issues with dry to the north and west.
Obviously not enough dry to prevent this latest improvement. Looks good...
I have no idea about the track, so will go with the models generally NW on that.
As to large and intense. With conditions the way they are, I would not be at all surprised. Lots of high-octane out there....
The track will be an interesting one for sure, because it will almost certainly effect what will develop behind it. What ever happens the peak of the season is upon us and it looks like a busy couple of months.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22317
to the contrary this thing about the stronger a storm gets the more north or poleward it will move is not necessarily correct, it depends on the upper atmosphere not the strength of the storm, as for now its seems the more Danielle intensifies the more westward track it will take for now, yes I'm the westcaster, got called that a few times here so i just adopt the title.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

IF the weakness in the ridge closes up, its going hit the US, have those change of shorts ready!!

IF it hits the weakness in the ridge at the RIGHT TIME, Bermuda will have a large, strong, INTENSE visitor!!


Your right on......I will make sure all my drawers are clean by the end of the week......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Bordonaro:

This may not occur.

IF a blocking ridge rebuild in, then Danielle will make a bee-line for the SE US coast.

This has NOT been a "normal year"!!!!


Has that ever happen, I can't even ever think of a Cape-Verde system that "bee-lined" into the East Coast (note im not including Frloida). They all seem to re-curve into the East Coast.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
Quoting sebastianflorida:
Depends on where you live; because I swear in most eyes that is where it is heading, and the black line in the middle of the cone better point directly at your house or the NHC is wrong and there is some conspiracy. I haven't figured out what the conspiracy is, but there is one if the storm is not pointed at your house.


haha yep thats where a lot of people put there hopes in. they got rid of that black line a little while ago because people were to dependent on it. but people still draw their own "black line" haha.
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1587. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129449
Quoting Bordonaro:

IF the weakness in the ridge closes up, its going hit the US, have those change of shorts ready!!

IF it hits the weakness in the ridge at the RIGHT TIME, Bermuda will have a large, strong, INTENSE visitor!!


either way, its not a fish storm, sorry fishcasters
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1585. xcool
btwntx08 lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Hoping to get a good thunderstorm in my area. Just moved to Baton Rouge, LA from Tampa, FL and the lack of thunderstorms in the afternoon is making me miss home. And others on from Louisiana that can make me feel better and tell me when I can expect a good thunderstorm?


We have been getting rain on most of the days in the last 2 months

and it rained like crazy this morning and is raining again now

never heard anyone move from somewhere to Florida and say they miss the thunderstorms lmao
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL.......ya! You got that right Brother. Certainly within a much stronger possiblity than it was 2 days ago.

IF the weakness in the ridge closes up, its going hit the US, have those change of shorts ready!!

IF it hits the weakness in the ridge at the RIGHT TIME, Bermuda will have a large, strong, INTENSE visitor!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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