Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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1681. smuldy
Quoting Bordonaro:


If a CAT 4 hit NYC at the right spot, lower Manhattan would be under 12-25 feet of water.

Tens of thousands of people would be injured, thousands might DIE. Parts of the area would be without power for up to 45 days. The total damage would exceed 150 BILLION dollars!!!!!!!
i know, grew up 30 minutes north, hence the just a joke and caps saying NOTE
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1679. pottery
Quoting doorman79:
Boy, I sure hope so!!

:)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1677. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


00Z



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
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Wow looks like rapid intensafying going on shes lookin hot
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1674. eye
the "good evening/morning" is about as bad as "thanks for new blog Dr. Masters" which usually takes the first 3 pages of a new blog entry.
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Quoting xcool:


update center not directly under the deep convection


Been on the eastern edge since I started looking last night, except for the out of body experience this afternoon. Easterly shear is present and will most likely keep a Hurricane at bay, at least in the short term.
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Quoting smuldy:
NOTE just a joke

kind of wouldn't mind seeing a cat 4 slam nyc, may be the only way the red sox make the playoffs this year lol


The bridges, subways and tunnels would be shut down 12 hrs before landfall. People would be stranded in low lying areas and succumb to flood and wind damage. About 20 million people would be directly impacted!!

If a CAT 4 hit NYC at the right spot, lower Manhattan would be under 12-25 feet of water.

Tens of thousands of people would be injured, thousands might DIE. Parts of the area would be without power for up to 45 days. The total damage would exceed 150 BILLION dollars!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting pottery:

AH! But does she (Danielle) go where she says she's going....
Boy, I sure hope so!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1668. hydrus
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't recall ever seeing such dry air over the United States.
I must say I am glad its here in TN. We had a lot of rain fall to fast. We need to get rid of some of it.
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1667. xcool
TampaSpin Ridge Building ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Trough or no trough, that is the question.

IKE in 08 said, no trough, will Danielle follow suit or defy once again? 45W and beyond.
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1665. SLU
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

After weeks of waiting, she's finally here...Will she bring friends with her?


Looks like the horse has finally bolted.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5111
I love how storm just vanished when everyone started asking him questions.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
1663. JRRP
Quoting StormChaser81:


I'd say its very close to the forecast point. Watch when the convection builds over the center and track it.

It almost seems it will pass directly over the forecast point.


that is true
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1661. beell
Quoting Hurricanes101:


either way, its not a fish storm, sorry fishcasters


Don't forget the third option. East of Bermuda.
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1660. pottery
Quoting doorman79:
Well my girl tells me where she is going lol. A little female-casting.
lol

AH! But does she (Danielle) go where she says she's going....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I live in Macon, GA and I believe Danielle will go just a little east of Bermuda and a little east of Nova Scotia lol


I live in Sunrise/Fort Lauderdale and I remember Andrew... slowed down around the Bahamas and then bee-lined across us.

Grew up near Macon, GA by the way (Gray), and I also remember all the storminess (lots of twisters) we got from the confluence of Hurricanes and David and Frederick.

- Sunrise Steeda
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tampa bay and wishcasting it out to sea.. Got a cute little camping coffee pot to use on the gas grill burner! Can't live without fresh brewed coffee..
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I think this season will be a mess for those who have been forecasting a hyperactive season. It's time to review those numbers. We are farther than ever to reach the forecasted numbers...
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Quoting TampaSpin:




I don't recall ever seeing such dry air over the United States.
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1655. xcool


update center not directly under the deep convection
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting DestinJeff:
"Pumping the ridge" violates community standards, don't forget.


Isn't "pumping the ridge" and "west-casting" the same thing?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
1653. trutxn
This is my first post here. Been "lurking" for awhile and learning alot. I'm a bit concerned about the flare up in the gulf. I think a couple of others have noted it but it hasn't really been discussed. Is it something to be concerned about?
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Howdy storm. A coke and bounty to ya! SLU will recognize that :)
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1651. TampaSpin
12:55 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1650. TexasHoosier
12:54 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Again, watch and see what Danielle's line of bearing is once she reaches the 70 West Longitude line, particularly if she is at or below the 20 Degree North Latitude line. That will probably tell you if that second ridge building over the US has had a major effect on her course. If her bearing is in the 270-300 degree range, watch out!!!

Personally, I don't think there is enough data to make even a 20% guess on her final track; If she starts to track north it will be interesting to see where the disturbance (if it develops) behind her ends up going.....
Member Since: December 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 114
1649. StormChaser81
12:54 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:
Danielle is now passing about 30-35 miles south of the next forecast point


I'd say its very close to the forecast point. Watch when the convection builds over the center and track it.

It almost seems it will pass directly over the forecast point.

Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1648. MiamiHurricanes09
12:53 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting doorman79:
Evening Storm! You too 09!
Evening doorman! Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1647. Bordonaro
12:53 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
*****Look for a high end Cat 4. near NYC*****
Not likely, however there is a slim possibility, and pray it does NOT come to pass.

Gloria slammed E LI with 115MPH SUSTAINED winds and left my in-laws without power for 12 days!!!

My sister in law watched in amazement as her apartment complex is S Massapequa was destroyed while she was at home, watching her roof fly off!!

PLEASE we do NOT want a major hurricane to hit anywhere, especially the NY-NJ Metro area.

I promise you, it will scare you nearly to death!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1646. tkeith
12:52 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
omg vero1 predicted storm was about to come on lol
Best forecast on the blog tonight :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8925
1645. doorman79
12:52 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL
Thats a cop-out!
We are supposed to KNOW these things....
heheheh
Well my girl tells me where she is going lol. A little female-casting.
lol
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1644. stormpetrol
12:52 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Good evening StormW, your thoughts on Danielle tonight, I see almost a true westward movement tonight, what do you see?I see at least between 270-280 degrees.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
1642. WeatherNerdPR
12:52 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting SLU:
This is the sort of robust development we've been expecting all year.



After weeks of waiting, she's finally here...Will she bring friends with her?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
1640. AWeatherLover
12:51 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Evening Storm! How are things in my old neck of the woods? I might join the AMS webinar in September from LSU if I can get the climatology department to let me use their room. Maybe get a little meeting going on here. What are your thoughts on Danielle? We need some clarity on the blog! lol.
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1639. pottery
12:51 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting doorman79:
Louisiana here, its going where she feels like it lol. Hiya Pottery

LOL
Thats a cop-out!
We are supposed to KNOW these things....
heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1638. smuldy
12:51 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
welcome storm
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 524
1636. TampaSpin
12:50 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Didn't a big blocking high build north of Andrew. If you remember, it held at about 25N for 700 miles. That high built in just as he was beginning to strengthen.


Very, Very simialar to this. The "A" storm i believe did help the high bridge back in stronger and faster.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1635. doorman79
12:50 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Evening Storm! You too 09!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1634. MiamiHurricanes09
12:49 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting Vero1:
I hear StormW's chair squeaking.
How do you know this? Is he your neighbor or something?

By the way, good evening Storm!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1633. Ossqss
12:48 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


"Perspective (Aug 18): With the anticipated development of a powerful Cape Verde hurricane (Danielle?) during the next week, considerable ACE will accumulate. For the Northern Hemisphere, the normal ACE per day is 5 units. This corresponds to the daily input of a 110 knot hurricane/typhoon or a major status (near Category 4) on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This is required just to keep up with climatology. It is when multiple hemispheric cyclones are concurrently spinning at high intensities does the ACE really add up. There is not much sign in the Pacific of any activity, thus the Atlantic will really need to pick up the slack. "

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
1632. MrstormX
12:48 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Danielle could potentially impact Bermuda, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Anywhere else is doubtful at best.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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