Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1732 - 1682

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FIAH STORM COMING SOON.
LMAO!! Is that is new one??
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7851
1731. Asta
Quoting StormW:


I hear ya. I'm still looking for that trof that's supposed to dip down to about 20N (GFS)


Will be an interesting week for sure..
More light rain here again...
keepin' it cool! ahhh!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
god only where She's going


well God and Jason of course lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7545
1729. beell
EDIT: Got it backwards. First frame 12Z. Second, the 18Z run. Corrected.

Negative tilt 500mb trough. First from today's 12Z. Second from the 18Z. Both valid Wednesday evening.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
this is the 18z GFS


look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs

are storm on the gulf coast and a new cv storm









this map is showing are gulf storm and 2 other storm




storm looks too make land fall in FL



then heads up the E coast has a strong storm or hurricane



looks like the storm is stalled

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1727. Patrap
Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 8:02 PM CDT on August 22, 2010

... Line of strong thunderstorms moving south affecting Washington
Parish... Walthall County... Pearl River County... Hancock County...
Orleans Parish... St. Tammany Parish...

At 801 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of strong thunderstorms... along a line extending from 16 miles
north of Franklinton to 10 miles south of Bogalusa to Diamondhead...
moving south at 30 mph.

The line of strong thunderstorms will affect areas in and around...
Bush... Franklinton... stennis space center... Enon... Pearl River...
Slidell Airport... Pearlington... Slidell... Abita Springs... Lacombe...
Folsom... Covington and Lake Catherine

The primary threat from these storms is wind gusts to near 40 mph...
which could down tree limbs and blow around unsecured small objects.
Seek shelter in a safe home or building until these storms have
passed.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors... stay
away from isolated high objects such as trees. Move indoors if
possible. When indoors... stay away from windows and doors and avoid
using telephones unless it is an emergency. Try to unplug unnecessary
electrical appliances before the thunderstorm approaches.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
Quoting blsealevel:


Hey Patrap look up
aye yi yi, thats gonna hit me first! Gonna be a long day at work tomorrow.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
1725. xcool
god only where She's going
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
look like it stormpetrol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I hear ya. I'm still looking for that trof that's supposed to dip down to about 20N (GFS)
Quoting TexasHoosier:
TampaSpin,

As usual, a terrific graphic showing the ridge/trough/ridge confluence over the US and moving into the GOM and South Atlantic.

Do you think that second ridge moving east from over the Western part of the US can push the trough out fast enough so it won't have much of an effect on the NW curvature of Danielle's track the next 3-5 days????

Storm, we await your views as well.....


If you look at that loop....The High is building directly behind it very fast. Faster than the models are showing. I don't like it at all to be honest. Maybe my eyes are tricking me but, the NOGAPS model is very simialar to what i am seeing. Maybe wrong tho.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1722. Asta
Quoting Grothar:

Any time you want to discuss the Civil War, just ask.

No need for that dearest...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1721. Patrap
Lub it.

....bring on the coolth rains.
Boomer still Uptown..dropped from 90.5..to 83.5 °F
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe, the algorithm was not able to detect a center from the satellite image so it used the position from the NHC track at that time, "forecast interpolation".
Most likely. I would say the center is slightly more west than that, but not by much. Won't do too much strengthening until the shear relaxes a little more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1719. hydrus
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FISH STORM COMING NEXT WEEK..
Jason. What is up with the upper case letters dude? I like reading your forecasts, but not when you put all capitol letters in your posts.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21034
1718. amd
Quoting beell:


Don't forget the third option. East of Bermuda.


Other than the last two 00Z Euro models, it seems that the models for the most part have been consistent in re-curving Danielle away from the US. I am in the camp of Danielle becoming a large, major hurricane that should be a harmless fish except for some good surf along the east coast and bermuda.

This is my analog for Danielle:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1717. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


00Z



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846


Hey Patrap look up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe, the algorithm was not able to detect a center from the satellite image so it used the position from the NHC track at that time, "forecast interpolation".


looks to me like the center is further under the convection then the satellite estimates show
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7545
Quoting xcool:


update center not directly under the deep convection


Maybe, the algorithm was not able to detect a center from the satellite image so it used the position from the NHC track at that time, "forecast interpolation".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TampaSpin,

As usual, a terrific graphic showing the ridge/trough/ridge confluence over the US and moving into the GOM and South Atlantic.

Do you think that second ridge moving east from over the Western part of the US can push the trough out fast enough so it won't have much of an effect on the NW curvature of Danielle's track the next 3-5 days????

Storm, we await your views as well.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned northward from 0.2degrees west of WestNorthWest to 4.5degrees north of NorthNorthWest
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 14.0n35.3w - - 40knots . . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
Copy&paste 12.2n33.9w-12.7n34.1w, 12.7n34.1w-13.2n34.6w, 13.2n34.6w-13.4n35.1w, 13.4n35.1w-14.0n35.3w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1710. fishcop
Bingo
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1709. Patrap
Rules of the Road

1. Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.
2. Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.

3. Foul language is not allowed.

4. Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.
5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.
6. No spam.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FISH STORM COMING NEXT WEEK..


No Jason, this is still too early to tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneAddict:


I live in Saint Pete as well..that's neat someone is that close to me on this blog, I live right near Tyrone mall man, nice to meet ya ;p



I am not far from ya, yea
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7545
SAB, AS, IM, 5, 3030 /////, , , , ULCC, T, DT=3.5 BO SHR MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO PT PA=40 NMI

What? SAB just came out as 3.0 but if I'm reading it right it is 3.5 now.. Anyway TAFB is at 3.0

TAFB, JL, I, 5, 3030 /////, , , MET8, CSC, T, DT = 3.0 BASED ON 0.5 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
coc 13.3N/36.2 imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7851
1702. pottery
LOLOL WPB.
heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24261
1701. xcool
TampaSpin Ridge Building hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1581. sebastianflorida 12:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2010


Everyone now should respond to this, state where you live and where you think Danielle is going; bet it would prove your statement false

I live in St Pete, FL and I think Danielle is headed near Bermuda and Nova Scotia and will not be a fish storm.


I live in Saint Pete as well..that's neat someone is that close to me on this blog, I live right near Tyrone mall man, nice to meet ya ;p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1699. smuldy
Quoting robj144:


Red Sox had everyone on the DL... you got lucky so far this year. The year isn't over though.
im actually a sox fan why i said jokingly i wouldnt mind it hitting there; in reality have many friends in the city so i would
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Lol, well said my friend..


Very poor taste joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1697. Patrap
Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules


Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog.

1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

2. Stay on topic.

3. No monomania.

4. No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission.

5. Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely.

6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".

7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.

8. No spamming.

9. No spamming.

10. Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc.

Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
1694. xcool
hunkerdown lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Been on the western edge since I started looking last night, except for the out of body experience this afternoon. Easterly shear is present and will most likely keep a Hurricane at bay, at least in the short term.


Correction, EASTERN edge.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


I live in Sunrise/Fort Lauderdale and I remember Andrew... slowed down around the Bahamas and then bee-lined across us.

Grew up near Macon, GA by the way (Gray), and I also remember all the storminess (lots of twisters) we got from the confluence of Hurricanes and David and Frederick.

- Sunrise Steeda


Cool, I wasn't around for David and Frederic, but Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne all did a number here. Also the mothers day tornado of 08 was unlike anything I've ever seen.. High end F2/Low end F3 with 130 mph winds. Although I'd take a 130mph twister over an Andrew any day, shoulda stayed here lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you look at this loop....this is my favorite view of everything.....It appears to me that the high will build back in very fast behind the Trough......this crap is gonna be interesting to follow.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting xcool:
danielle very close to 40w
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I live in Oldsmar and believe that Bermuda will be the only land threatend by Danielle.
what is this a HA meeting ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i am more concerned about the depression that is supposed to form in the gulf next week per Dr.masters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting eye:
the "good evening/morning" is about as bad as "thanks for new blog Dr. Masters" which usually takes the first 3 pages of a new blog entry.
Hey it's harmless isn't like we're about to run out of virtual paper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1686. xcool
she need more work .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
1684. Patrap
Of course..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127846
Coming in late on the question of what to have other than the 'normal', but if you have pets, stock up on food. After Rita it was four to six weeks before the stores were stocked with items. My sister couldn't understand why I was so excited a month after Rita to find fresh chicken finally at the store. She lives in upstate NY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1732 - 1682

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
82 °F
Overcast