Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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1782. pottery
Quoting bappit:

Continuity?

..of what?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
1781. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1779. bappit
Quoting pottery:

Based on the steering map you posted (and as StormW was saying earlier) a west track would be anticipated.
Why is Danielle forecast to be moving NW??

Continuity?
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hmmm I find that the BEST LAT and LONG are not accurate and the NHC official track is more accurate than the BEST track

anyway I see the COC near 13.5N 36.8W
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1777. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 230122
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0122 UTC MON AUG 23 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE (AL062010) 20100823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100823 0000 100823 1200 100824 0000 100824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 35.3W 15.1N 37.0W 16.5N 39.6W 18.3N 42.9W
BAMD 14.0N 35.3W 15.0N 37.4W 16.2N 39.8W 17.7N 42.2W
BAMM 14.0N 35.3W 15.1N 37.3W 16.4N 39.9W 18.0N 42.9W
LBAR 14.0N 35.3W 15.0N 37.5W 16.3N 40.5W 17.5N 43.5W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 57KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100825 0000 100826 0000 100827 0000 100828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 46.2W 22.6N 52.3W 23.8N 53.4W 28.1N 52.0W
BAMD 19.5N 44.6W 23.9N 49.2W 28.0N 51.8W 31.2N 53.8W
BAMM 19.7N 45.9W 22.9N 51.0W 25.3N 52.6W 29.0N 52.4W
LBAR 19.0N 46.7W 22.6N 51.8W 27.4N 53.5W 31.4N 53.3W
SHIP 72KTS 82KTS 86KTS 84KTS
DSHP 72KTS 82KTS 86KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 35.3W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 33.9W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 32.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 45NM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684


"Umm" ok then
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FIAH STORM COMING SOON.



plz stop Quoteing him

yup, just like the devil correcting sin
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You caught that too. HaHa
Me too!
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We just might get an ULL develop from the Trough pinch off and create enough sheer to hamper development some. That would be nice.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1770. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:
The current movement is about 11mph........i would say that movement will slow down .....the steering current appears to be pretty weak...coming up....

and a more West movement migh be coming also.

Looks like to me that trough is gonna get pinched off..before Danielle gets there.




Based on the steering map you posted (and as StormW was saying earlier) a west track would be anticipated.
Why is Danielle forecast to be moving NW??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
1769. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FAIYAA (Fire) storm?

wow that is a new phrase for this blog..
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this is the 18z GFS


look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs

are storm on the gulf coast and a new cv storm









this map is showing are gulf storm and 2 other storm




storm looks too make land fall in FL



then heads up the E coast has a strong storm or hurricane



looks like the storm is stalled



312 hours is an awful long time. In 312 hours:

--A jet airliner can completely circle the globe at the equator more than six times.
--The earth will travel more than 20.7 million miles in its orbit around the sun.
--Light will travel more then 209 billion miles.

The point being: that's a really long time, time in which so many things can factor that no computer anywhere can see anything that far out.

it is interesting, though...
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Quoting pottery:

Brilliant.
You caught that too. HaHa
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Quoting TampaSpin:
If you look at this loop....this is my favorite view of everything.....It appears to me that the high will build back in very fast behind the Trough......this crap is gonna be interesting to follow.

Quoting StormW:


I hear ya. I'm still looking for that trof that's supposed to dip down to about 20N (GFS)


I'm with Storm and TampaSpin; I think there is a chance that this trough is too weak or gets blown out too fast to have a major effect on Danielle; the ridge forming behind the trough rolls in an keeps Danielle moving west.

And I love TS animation which shows the whole weather show in one graphic - great job!!!
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1765. 900MB
She's blowin up!
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1764. bappit
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormDanielle's heading has turned northward from 0.2degrees west of WestNorthWest to 4.5degrees north of NorthNorthWest
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 12amGMT - 11.2n32.3w - - 25knots . . . . 1008mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03amGMT - 11.3n32.6w - - 35mph . . . . . 1008mb - NHC.Adv.2
22Aug - 06amGMT - 11.7n33.0w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *was11.8n*
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF *
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
*before NHC reevaluated&altered TD6's path*
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 14.0n35.3w - - 40knots . . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF
Copy&paste 12.2n33.9w-12.7n34.1w, 12.7n34.1w-13.2n34.6w, 13.2n34.6w-13.4n35.1w, 13.4n35.1w-14.0n35.3w, hex, bda, sid into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Nice link. Nice observation.
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1763. Ossqss
Wow, why did my posts of info, models, and imagery get blanked out? Was that based upon the value of the info, per the rules, or the bias of those who hit the minus. Gheeze! This place gets more and more unfriendly and bias every day by those in the background. Most of us don't vote , but probably should. Log out and see if you are a blanked out. You may be surprised.

I guess most of us don't spend our time on the bias part and try to share and learn accordingly.

Interesting how the poll results panned out though (upper right on this blog) on the Russian GW heat wave question. NASA even spoke up on it.

Perhaps if those folks hit the appropriate button, I would not be invisible to the public?

Do you believe human-caused global warming is a significant factor contributing to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010?
Yes 525 (40%)
No 610 (46.5%)
Not sure 178 (13.6%)


I guess there are many who are not indoctrinated that visit this site, like NASA in this case on the Russian heat wave.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
1762. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 230000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS 1005 INITIAL TIME 230000 UTC
00HR 16.1N 111.2E 996HPA 18M/S

30KTS 100KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H=

tropical storm from CMA
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The current movement is about 11mph........i would say that movement will slow down .....the steering current appears to be pretty weak...coming up....

and a more West movement migh be coming also.

Looks like to me that trough is gonna get pinched off..before Danielle gets there.



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1760. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FIAH STORM COMING SOON.



plz stop Quoteing him

Brilliant.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
1759. bappit
Quoting StormW:
I hope the models are looking at the wave that's not supposed to develop..you know...off Africa.

Do you mean PGI 34 L?
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1758. trey33
Quoting stormpetrol:
One thing for sure gotta be a lot of red eyes in mornings this week


you betcha
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Quoting Asta:
re: 1728. Tazmanian 1
this is the 18z GFS
look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs


Would not surprise me.. The week after the Katrina anniversary.. "peccable" timing...


312hrs out! We should begin evacuating Panama City!
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Quoting StormW:
I hope the models are looking at the wave that's not supposed to develop..you know...off Africa.

My impression is the Global models look at everything for the whole globe. One of the days when I have a LOT of time I'd like to see the code and algorithms they use.
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1753. amd
Looks like Danielle will pass very close to buoy: Station 13008-Reggae (great name) sometime in the next 6-12 hours or so.

Winds were measured at 22kts (25mph) about three hours ago. This buoy updates irregularely, but it should give us a good estimate on Danielle's intensity.

Buoy 13008
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1751. Asta
re: 1728. Tazmanian 1
this is the 18z GFS
look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs


Would not surprise me.. The week after the Katrina anniversary.. "peccable" timing...
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1750. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
They're not one and the same?

heheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24881
Quoting stormpetrol:
coc 13.3N/36.2 imo.
I am really not seeing it as far N as NHC and a little further W than what they have as coordinates but that's JMHO.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
They're not one and the same?


Last I checked no, Jason is taller
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hurricanes101:


well God and Jason of course lol
They're not one and the same?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea and its why I made the prediction

several models see numerous storms in the next 2 weeks




cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:



did you see my post


yea and its why I made the prediction

several models see numerous storms in the next 2 weeks
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1743. trey33
Quoting Tazmanian:
this is the 18z GFS

Taz,
I luv ya, but you are making me nervous....ugh! Hopefully this won't run true.
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One thing for sure gotta be a lot of red eyes in mornings this week
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1741. xcool
b
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1740. Levi32
Ridge to the north gets it stuck...lots of room for messy work in a pattern like this:

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1739. Asta
re:Patrap:Special Weather Statement
Yep the dogs are going crazy already - they can hear the thunder- the wind is kickin' up here a bit- and the rain is just starting..
on a tin roof- heavy rain.. great sound!
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1738. Levi32
18z GFS ensemble mean still reveals a lot of members continuing to give a track that could affect Bermuda and gets pretty close to New England.

Day 9:

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Bold prediction time

By the 1st week of September we will be on the "G" storm



did you see my post
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1736. xcool
Hurricanes101 .lolol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1735. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Bold prediction time

By the 1st week of September we will be on the "G" storm
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Storm, both you and Levi mentioned that one of the possible inhibiting factors to the start of the season was that the NA Continent was too hot, along with the SSTs, and that was taking the "focus" away...
With Sept right around the corner and part of the country entering a cool down for fall, do think this will redirect some of this "focus" to the ATL and giving us a bunch of storms?

TYIA
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
FIAH STORM COMING SOON.
LMAO!! Is that is new one??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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