Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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1831. xcool
btwntx08 .be nice :) mrs rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anticyclone has started sliding towards the circulation, that's probably the reason why we are seeing the blow up. Its almost directly over it.


Great, now watch Danielle explode!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1829. will45
Quoting pottery:
HEH!!
Some serious rumblings to my east right now.
Flashing lights and all..........


Orca did it
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think wish-casters will move on from Francis to this storm, except I think there is a definite possibility of this type of track
If you look at the spaghetti tracks appears to me like you can choose one to send it anywhere you want.
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1827. pottery
HEH!!
Some serious rumblings to my east right now.
Flashing lights and all..........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Anticyclone has started sliding towards the circulation, that's probably the reason why we are seeing the blow up. Its almost directly over it.

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Danielle gets more impressive every minute...
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
my new video on tropical storm DANIELLE CALLING THIS A FISH STORM BY 200%


Jason....i am not going to disagree with you as you could very well be correct. But, 200%....you can't wait to get pounced on if you are wrong by many. YOU KNOW THAT!....LOL
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1821. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTKO20 RKSL 230000 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME TS 1005 MINDULLE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230000UTC 15.8N 111.0E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 995HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 240000UTC 18.1N 108.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 250000UTC 19.5N 105.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 260000UTC 20.0N 102.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

----
40 knots from KMA
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1820. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree........must be Hugo...


Diane 1955
And that track sure looks possible
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1819. will45
Quoting TampaSpin:


I agree........must be Hugo...


Diane
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1818. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
what happened to the fire storm, Jason ;-)
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think wish-casters will move on from Francis to this storm, except I think there is a definite possibility of this type of track


I agree........must be Hugo...
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I think wish-casters will move on from Francis to this storm, except I think there is a definite possibility of this type of track
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1814. Vero1
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1813. pottery
Quoting StormW:


Right now, the weakness that is there...she's feeling it somewhat...so combine that right now, with the actual flow she's embedded in, and it works out to what we see, as far as the bend back WNW somewhat. In fact NHC even stated a WNW bend in the 5:00 p.m. discussion

GIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

Many thanks for that.
This one has "confusion" writ all over it, IMO!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting TampaSpin:


My guess is the High is not as strong as the Steering maps are showing. Truly the only answer at this point. But, if you look at where Danielle is now and you look at the Steering Graphics there a small amount of space for Danielle to move North. But, soon a more Westerly track should be coming.


The nor'easter that "bombs" on Monday and Tuesday will further weaken the west side existing ridge. The weakness will occur between the Bermuda high and the 1024 Canadian high that builds in from the west. If you want to get technical, troughs don't necessarily steer tropical systems, they just create the weaknesses between highs to follow.
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Lower Level Winds
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1810. pottery
Thanks P451 and TampaSpin.
Interesting idea, Doorman.
Momentum rules!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1809. xcool
DiscussionDiscussion
Discussion
Larry Cosgrove



The subtropical high will, at time, experience weaknesses over Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. This is why some chances for showers and thunderstorms may crop up, especially by the weekend. There is a small possibility that energy from Tropical Storm Frank (in the Gulf of Tehuantepec) could move into the Bay of Campeche, then link with the vestiges of a frontal structure following the Gulf Coast. If so, we could have some cooling and heavy rainfall with thunderstorms this weekend.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
The break is applied very hard with the BAM models.....might be a stall coming

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1807. will45
Quoting TampaSpin:


My guess is the High is not as strong as the Steering maps are showing. Truly the only answer at this point. But, if you look at where Danielle is now and you look at the Steering Graphics there a small amount of space for Danielle to move North. But, soon a more Westerly track should be coming.


her vertical stacking may play a role also. I havent looked at all the steering layers. Sometime they are the same and sometimes they are not
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1805. Dakster
Quoting pottery:
Sorry Dakster!
LOL


It's ok. I cleaned it off...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10289
1804. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


TS Mindulle
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Quoting pottery:
UNderstood.
But I find it strange that the Steering has been consistently west for many hours, and the track is trending to the north.
Im trying to learn, but could she have been trying to get under the anticyclone. Now that she has, she seems to be moving more WNW. They are like a boat for the most part, dont just stop on a dime. Just my dumb thought!
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Quoting pottery:
UNderstood.
But I find it strange that the Steering has been consistently west for many hours, and the track is trending to the north.


My guess is the High is not as strong as the Steering maps are showing. Truly the only answer at this point. But, if you look at where Danielle is now and you look at the Steering Graphics there a small amount of space for Danielle to move North. But, soon a more Westerly track should be coming.
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1800. pottery
Quoting doorman79:
So now i know where she is going!!!!!!!!!!! lol

HAHAHAHAHHHHH
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
How many days will we have a better bead on danielle's path, I hope it recurves out to sea and does not hit New England or where i live in Nova scotia, both regions would not fair to well in even a cat 1 because the hardwood trees are still in full bloom, that would knock out power for days to weeks.
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1797. bappit
Beta effect I guess.
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TAFB at T3.0/45kt.
SAB at T3.0/45kt.
ADT at 3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt

Based on this Danielle should be upped to a 45kt/50mph tropical storm at 11p.m EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1795. pottery
Quoting TampaSpin:


Granted those steering maps basically run 3 hours behind and they can change very fast if a strong trough is present. But, i don't see that much of a major change in the steering maps on the next update. I'm sure there will be some. Will certainly be interesting to see how much they change.
UNderstood.
But I find it strange that the Steering has been consistently west for many hours, and the track is trending to the north.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307


All right who step on Florida? "lol"
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1792. Asta
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Trough or no trough, that is the question.

IKE in 08 said, no trough, will Danielle follow suit or defy once again? 45W and beyond.

For me- the trough is not as important as the bermuda high.. high pressure controls all...
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
1791. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE (T1005)
9:00 AM JST August 23 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (994 hPa) located at 15.8N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 107.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.8N 105.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.0N 103.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

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Quoting Vero1:

Well, Danielle looks trapped in between 2 Highs.

Can you say, "Up the E Coast"? If this model forecast is correct!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Dakster:


Damn it. Just spit soda all over my keyboard when I read that.

So now i know where she is going!!!!!!!!!!! lol
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1788. bappit
Quoting pottery:

..of what?

The current path. See aspectre's post at 1711.
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1787. pottery
Sorry Dakster!
LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1786. KBH
Quoting pottery:

Based on the steering map you posted (and as StormW was saying earlier) a west track would be anticipated.
Why is Danielle forecast to be moving NW??

Any one got any info on the system after Danielle?
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1785. Dakster
Quoting RufusBaker:
Wow looks like rapid intensafying going on shes lookin hot


What do you think TS Danielle is doing?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10289
Quoting pottery:

Based on the steering map you posted (and as StormW was saying earlier) a west track would be anticipated.
Why is Danielle forecast to be moving NW??


Granted those steering maps basically run 3 hours behind and they can change very fast if a strong trough is present. But, i don't see that much of a major change in the steering maps on the next update. I'm sure there will be some. Will certainly be interesting to see how much they change.
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1782. pottery
Quoting bappit:

Continuity?

..of what?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.