Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:


Most computer models after 72 hrs could not find there way out of an open paper bag :O)


Thanks Bordonaro...grocery shopping!
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1881. pottery
Quoting DestinJeff:


Best Taz post ever.

True!
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Hello bloggers! I don't think I've added any comments since last summer. I have read a lot of the comments, glad to see the thoughts of StormW, TampaSpin, and others I remember to be excellent bloggers. I worry that Danielle will miss the weakness, and hit near New Jersey, where I live. I hope that's an outlier at best. If, on the off chance, once in 100 years that NJ would be hit (direct landfall, although we are scraped by a storm heading south to north off our coast more often than that) by a hurricane of category 1 or 2 strength, we are seven years overdue, as the last one hit in 1903. I remember being terrified that Isabel was going to hit here, and that would have been 100 years to the day! Although Isabel hit down south below me several hundred miles, her windfield was incredibly wide, and Danielle looks like a big storm too. Maybe nature is trying to force out the cast of 'Jersey Shore' which films a couple hundred yards to the south of my building, which is oceanfront, with no protection of any kinds from the ocean winds. Last winter, during the Nor'Easters too numerous to mention, my building's storm door was destroyed, and the drop ceiling collapsed because of the relentless attack of blowing sand that blew inside from the cracks. Thank God this is only a place of business and I don't live HERE, although my house isn't too far away, but probably a LITTLE more protected than the oceanfront property. No worries. If they say to evacuate, I will simply gather up my dogs and cats, and my 87-year old Aunt, and we're OUTTA HERE!
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all the models are predicting in the next 5 days is that Danielle moves mostly NW and is somewhere south and east of Bermuda in that time

well ok we know that, what we do not know is what happens after that and really anything could happen

To me showing the forecast model tracks proves nothing either way at this point
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1877. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm halo around the moon means rain is coming, if I remember..
ring around the moon rain or snow by noon
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1876. beell
Quoting fldude99:


312 hrs?! gimme a break


How'd I get mixed up in that?
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1874. aquak9
hi Bord! I AM stuck here with you, well with everyone. Couldn't ask for a better, livelier crowd of folks. As long as I'm not stuck in the middle of the CONE, it's all good. ♥
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Waiting to see if trough along gulf coast stalls or pushes out into GOM..lotsa energy so far this evening...good boomers here in Port Fouchon, LA...
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1871. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Just a little one.

Yeah! But still.....
:)
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1868. beell
A couple of good days of intensification ahead for Danielle. Then some shear over the northern half of the storm as she encounters the ULL currently at 28N 44W as it passes by to the NW on a slow trip to the SW or WSW (?). A bend to the west may indeed occur as Danielle weakens enough to fall back under a lower level steering regime. But she just might be strong enough to follow the first trough out-or at least keep a track more north of WNW. If not she should be far enough north to turn in front of the second trough. It would be foolish to count out Bermuda at this point.
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1867. pottery
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
hmm halo around the moon means rain is coming, if I remember..

without nah doubt, in this case.
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1866. will45
Quoting StormW:


They're updated every 3 hours


Storm i dont read the steering maps very well are the higher level one showing the same right now as the lower ones?
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1865. xcool


update



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
If Frank is a 60MPH storm, what do you think Danielle is?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
312 hours! I don't even know what I am going to do in 12 hours!
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1861. xcool
scott39 .15k wind shear..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1859. scott39
Danielle looks like she getting wind shear from the E.
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1858. GoofOff
I am not any kind of 'caster, but StormW was talking about the storms following this one coming off Africa. While I know there will be, all the data that I found covering the next 7 days doesn't show any. I don't even try to look beyond that as even a week can have drastic changes.
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1857. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting pottery:

He ate a whole Burro??
Just a little one.
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1855. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm halo around the moon means rain is coming, if I remember..
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1854. pottery
Take it EASY Taz....
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Quoting aquak9:
Every Season™, something, someone new shows up. I always think I've seen it all, heard it all on this blog. But no....this year, we've got Jason.

I might be in the foulest grumpiest mood ever but one of his videos always makes me smile.

Remember, Steeler Wheel, "Stuck in the middle with you"?? Link below for a moment of zen:
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Looks like a fighter..

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In a few days we'll know where Danielle is headed and bur I don't think Diane is probable just possible honestly I would bet on some waves and rain in Bermuda but nothing more
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Evening all.

It seems the excitement with this storm has been happening "behind my back".... lol. The minute I stepped out of the house, BOOM! Danielle... lol

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1847. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TS/D/CX
MARK
14.36N/36.23W

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? Isn't she already south and west of the 06:00z point? Or am i reading wrong?
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1845. will45
Quoting pottery:

That must be why there is a Halo around the Moon.
Heavy Northern Mojo at work....


he took it off to polish it pott
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
I think this is a possible track. Not amazingly likely, but its in the mix.
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I knew i wasnt seeing things.
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Quoting P451:


We've seen it all season long...steering showing west, models showing northerly components....

and so far the models have somewhat proven more correct than the steering maps.

Makes me wonder about those steering maps and how much they can be trusted.

Will the same occur this go around? Don't know but I do feel Danielle is going to be one suspect storm come the 8-14 day range.


The steering maps are plenty accurate, the issue lies with the the interpretation of the data. The maps show steering currents at the present time. If the steering currents remained unchanged for a week at a time, the storm would go directly where the map shows the currents taking it. But since all weather is fluid and always changing, steering currents included, this information is only good for a short amount of time. The forecast models try to predict how the steering currents will change.

Remember, the steering maps are not a road map bu they are fairly accurate.
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1838. palmpt
Quoting TampaSpin:


Jason....i am not going to disagree with you as you could very well be correct. But, 200%....you can't wait to get pounced on if you are wrong by many. YOU KNOW THAT!....LOL

Jason has it!
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1837. pottery
Quoting will45:


Orca did it

That must be why there is a Halo around the Moon.
Heavy Northern Mojo at work....
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1836. will45
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
I told him not to eat that burrito.


ah ha
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting will45:


Orca did it
I told him not to eat that burrito.
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1833. xcool
15k wind shear hit her rigth now..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.