Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2031. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Hurricane by late Tuesday...

are they sure by almost Wednesday?
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Danielle is really putting on a show tonight! It is amazing what mother nature can do. (And i wish it on no one!!!!)
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895


guess im just old fashion im going wit dis one
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2027. will45
ok 3 letter is back you all know the drill lol
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2026. DDR
Hi pottery
Rumbling to the east..but radar shows the storms dying out.
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Danielle now a 50 mph ts
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...DANIELLE STRENGTHENS...

11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 22
Location: 14.2°N 35.9°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2021. DDR
Good night
Rumbles and flashes around the island(Trinidad) tonight,heavy rains expected during the up coming week.
30+ inches have fallen at my location over the last 22 days.
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2020. xcool
btwntx08 come on nowww
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You guys are killing me here! I just love the banter. Better than anything TV has to offer.
Thank you all for the info and the laughter.
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2015. pottery
Quoting pipelines:


I know they are, what I was trying to say is, often times people will look at a steering map and see the currents taking a system to the west, then look at the models and see them taking the system north in a day or two. They then assume one is incorrect since they show "conflicting" data when they are actually both accurate.

How many times have people asked "I know the models show a NW turn in 24 hours but I just dont see the steering currents on this map going NW". This is due to improper data interpretation, or perhaps, a misunderstanding of the use of that data.

A single steering map is usually useless for forecasting movement more than 24 hours out, what could be useful is a collection of past steering maps played up to the current one frame by frame so you can see how the currents are changing. Now that would be a helpful forecasting tool!

Good points.
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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
50mph storm with a pressure of 1000mb. Not a bad drop in pressure...
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Is there something trying to form in the GOM?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
wow the Computer Model at 11pm back move to the east now..that means its will go out to sea.


HAHAHAHAHAHA no it doesn't.
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2009. XStormX
Quoting StormW:
Good night all...up very early tomorrow.

have a good evening storm!
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2008. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
45 kts 1000 hPa for AL062010 (DANIELLE)
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The NHC spoke to lowered intensity expectations in their last discussion, but refused to lower the intensity out of respect for continuity. It's a good thing they gave continuity some R-E-S-P-E-C-T, because it's already exceeded the 5PM guidance by at least 10knots, and probably 20+knots.
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I'm not sure if I could survive without Jason's video weather updates. Quality info.
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Quoting LADobeLady:
We have some kind of light show in Houma tonight. No thunder yet, but lightening everywhere.

Oh, you said light "show", not light "snow"...
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Quoting StormW:
Good night all...up very early tomorrow.
Dont let the bed bugs bite!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
2001. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1997. StormW 2:35 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Good night all...up very early tomorrow.


bye
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Quoting Tazmanian:
this is the 18z GFS


look what i see hiting the gulf coast in 312hrs

are storm on the gulf coast and a new cv storm









this map is showing are gulf storm and 2 other storm




storm looks too make land fall in FL



then heads up the E coast has a strong storm or hurricane



looks like the storm is stalled





Say it ain't so!!!
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Quite a lightning show here in Picayune, MS earlier. It sure is nice after such a hot day to have that cold rain help cool down the house. ahhhhhhhhhh
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Quoting StormW:


They're updated every 3 hours


I know they are, what I was trying to say is, often times people will look at a steering map and see the currents taking a system to the west, then look at the models and see them taking the system north in a day or two. They then assume one is incorrect since they show "conflicting" data when they are actually both accurate.

How many times have people asked "I know the models show a NW turn in 24 hours but I just dont see the steering currents on this map going NW". This is due to improper data interpretation, or perhaps, a misunderstanding of the use of that data.

A single steering map is usually useless for forecasting movement more than 24 hours out, what could be useful is a collection of past steering maps played up to the current one frame by frame so you can see how the currents are changing. Now that would be a helpful forecasting tool!
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Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
1992. Relix
So it's moving west now. 290 maybe
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1991. xcool
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1989. aquak9
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is there a carpenter there too?

and do you like oysters?


Last time I ate a dozen oysters, only eight of'm worked.

Now I went and got Bordonaro banned- I encouraged his silly pics. My fault, folks. I'll take a ban with him. :(

24 hours, later loved ones.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
1988. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1975. truecajun 2:27 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
hello everyone. i'm just checkin' in real quick. so td6 is most likely for east cost, bermuda, or the fish, right??


so far. It looks close to the country of Bermuda.
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Quoting aquak9:


(takes a number, gets in line)
and I'll get behind you and take the next number LOL


Taco :o)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
1984. bappit
The BAM models are more or less the same across shallow, medium and deep versions, so the steering currents are fairly uniform at different heights.

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 35.3W 15.1N 37.0W 16.5N 39.6W 18.3N 42.9W
BAMD 14.0N 35.3W 15.0N 37.4W 16.2N 39.8W 17.7N 42.2W
BAMM 14.0N 35.3W 15.1N 37.3W 16.4N 39.9W 18.0N 42.9W

Edit: uniform within the GFS data input into the BAM model.
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truecajun, looks like we have a similar question. :)
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1982. pottery
Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone. i'm just checkin' in real quick. so td6 is most likely for east cost, bermuda, or the fish, right??

Well, um, yeah!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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