Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.



+100000, well said
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CheckouttheCATLWVLoop
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!


Slight chance at this time of Danielle hitting Bermuda. No need to worry.
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2179. will45
Quoting MississippiWx:


Eh, the anticyclone isn't directly over Danielle. It is actually off to the north and east, helping to shear the system from the east. The other cause of the easterly shear is the African Easterly Jet.


last image i saw it looked pretty close to overhead
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The whole world of models appear very confident with a pretty good concensus i would say....

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Quoting Hurricanes101:




I wont hold it against you if Danielle causes havoc


ahhhh 101 thanks for the bit of fresh air as I am holding my breath on this one... :/
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!


I hope all storms are fishes.. :P
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
i know what i am talking about this storm DANIELLE going out to sea. its north 14.5 west 35.5 THAT IS GOING TO BE A FISH STORM.


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.

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2174. xcool
jason2010xxxx cool guy .
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I think she will be a hurricane by 5PM or 11PM on Monday--not Tuesday as they are saying
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night gordy.
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nyhurricaneboy "I feel like admin has been handing out bans where they're not needed and taking a back seat to THE CHAT, where the Community Standards sustain serious violations on a daily basis."
2103 will45 "those rooms are scheduled to be shut down"

Bad idea to the extent that a significant portion of the violations of Community Standards taking place in chat aren't occurring on the blog. Certainly wouldn't want those violations to migrate over into here because chat is no longer available.
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2169. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Most likely
Its stalling and fizzling out though
Aye man how about mosquitos,been a while since i got btten,you were right about the dengue outbreak.

Very few mossies here.
Plenty bats flying around, eating them up.
Not hearing too much about the dengue recently.
Chaguanas had about 45 cases confirmed last week or so ago.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!


I wont hold it against you if Danielle causes havoc
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Is it just me or does the ULL to Danielle's north seem to be diving SW?
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Quoting will45:


the anticyclone above her is helping control the shear i think


Eh, the anticyclone isn't directly over Danielle. It is actually off to the north and east, helping to shear the system from the east. The other cause of the easterly shear is the African Easterly Jet.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Nice light show at Port Fourchon where I am
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I think maybe by early-mid morning the NHC will or should revaluated the position of the COC and locate it further S and W
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2162. xcool
btwntx08 ,come now .you can ignored me now that ok
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Only comment of the night Danielle looks very well organizes Hurr. tomorrow. looks to be taking a little bit of a left hand turn. Will see in the morning good night all.
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2160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2114. Chicklit 3:02 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
>


a rare white spot (a very cold cloud top reading)
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She's ramping up impressively. Westward motion forecast with a trough then lifting her out. It's not like the NHC can steer her where they want her to go though.
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When easterly shear abates, Danielle will have no problem becoming a hurricane.
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2157. JLPR2
That's a huge area of dry and stale air inland over the US, is Danielle going to meet that?

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OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!
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Nothing is in the Gulf as of now, but since a frontal passage has made it this far south, you always have to watch out for areas of low pressure developing off of fronts and becoming tropical. The remnants of what is left of TD5 is in southern GA and is expected to move into the gulf. I haven't read much about it, but nothing should develop....at least as of now. Just a lot of convection with very heavy rain.
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Quoting maryweather84:
hey can some one please explain the blob in gom? and what it may do???? thanks!!!


Supposed to go towards S Texas after getting us wet here after isnt suposed to form anything
just rain and lightning
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2153. will45
Quoting MississippiWx:


Don't want to have one of your comments removed again? LOL.

Vorticity looks great with Danielle. It's all focused on the center now, instead of fighting with that disturbance to the northeast, like earlier.


the anticyclone above her is helping control the shear i think
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2150. DDR
Quoting blsealevel:


Houma La

Ok
Trinidad Here,pottery as well
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Quoting Chicklit:


p.s.
Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

Particularly with a hurricane forming. Jeeze.


Don't want to have one of your comments removed again? LOL.

Vorticity looks great with Danielle. It's all focused on the center now, instead of fighting with that disturbance to the northeast, like earlier.
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2148. skook
We had about 4 inches of rain here east of tampa today in only a few hours, some minor flooding, but nothing to serious. td5 lives!!!.....
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2147. smuldy
Quoting duajones78413:


what does that mean?
accumulated cyclonic energy for the life of each storm
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the new track puts Bermuda at play


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I think it will reach Hurricane status by either 5PM or 11PM Monday.
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I find it odd that they have Danielle turning into a hurricane in 48 hours. I feel like she could be a hurricane by tomorrow evening if not earlier based on what we are seeing now. Especially since they included that easterly shear will decrease within the next 12 hours.

To me, the easterly shear isn't effecting Danielle that much.
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I am interested in the GOM blob as well, can someone explain?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


True dat! Dr. Masters would probably be a millionaire. :-)
He has been on a lot of trips lately lol
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2139. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Getting a little breeze here now.
Must be from the Mayaro one.
No rain here at all today as yet. Plenty west and south of here with loads of lightening.

Most likely
Its stalling and fizzling out though
Aye man how about mosquitos,been a while since i got btten,you were right about the dengue outbreak.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Agreed, the - and + and the auto remove features just don't seem to cut it since not only the good bloggers get to use them. :\

Well, enough of that, back to exploding Danielle. :D


Agreed.
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p.s. Admin Notice: When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

p.s.s. particularly with a hurricane forming.
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Quoting doorman79:
Yes, but from the other end. Think about how much can be made by the names he has had in the last 5 years!!!! just saying


True dat! Dr. Masters would probably be a millionaire. :-)
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The local weatherman just used a nice neutral non-trollike term in referring to DANIELLE. He didn't call her a fish storm. He called her an "ocean storm".
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2133. will45
Quoting Chicklit:


nice anticyclone
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Quoting blsealevel:


Houma La
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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