Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2232 - 2182

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

2232. xcool
JLPR2 lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I realize what the models are saying but I am not convinced as of yet...this could do anything.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Danielle is really organizing tonight... Threatens to become a hurricane within 24 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looks better than 50mph. My thinking: hurricane by 8:00 AM, major by tomorrow evening.



A little aggressive, are we? If the center were directly underneath the convection, I might agree with you. However, the center is off on the east side of the blob. The upper high is creeping ever so slowly towards the center of Danielle and when it becomes vertically stacked, she will strengthen quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



ugh


am bad


ask him why did he get banned


I think he posted a picture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2227. will45
Quoting Hurricanes101:
the blog is buzzing tonight and guess what?

the 00Z GFS is starting soon lol


yea i hope the non pay sites can update faster tonite lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol Ho77yw00d.. so how was ur weather today? anything interesting or just normal..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting Hurricanes101:
the blog is buzzing tonight and guess what?

the 00Z GFS is starting soon lol



YAY


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting doorman79:
Hello Miss cajun, the pink dress and the ka jun rebbocks are great! Where did u find them in black though lol. Joke ;)


thanks!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the blog is buzzing tonight and guess what?

the 00Z GFS is starting soon lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
2221. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


If models weren't pointing so far to my north I would be eating my nails. LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks better than 50mph. My thinking: hurricane by 8:00 AM, major by tomorrow evening.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i'm starting to get scared over here. it sounds like a hurricane outside. the wind is going NUTS. what is going on?? anyone else in teh BR area?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


dont be so sure of that

consensus has it SE of Bermuda in 5 days, I think that most of us can agree on, after that it has just as good of a chance of heading towards the west and impacting Bermuda than it does going straight north and out to sea


Almost as good a chance for a big hook to the left with a building blocking High to the North this far out in time also....JUST SAYIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2215. will45
Quoting PcolaDan:
Bordonaro says Hi, and that he IS NOT circumventing the ban.


i knew he wouldnt do that and ty for info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will45:


yea i see it on that one getting close tho


You're right. It's almost there. Assuming it becomes vertically stacked with Danielle, she could be a hurricane this time tomorrow night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting A4Guy:
cyclonicvoyage....go back to the nhc site and look at the graphics archive for ike - at no point did the forecast have ike curving as much as danielle is fcst to curve. i agree that nothing is 100%, but if i were betting, I would be on no conus threat at this point.


Thats NHC track.. But if i remember right.. I think some models have Ike curving, but not all of them.. Just saying!!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Bordonaro says Hi, and that he IS NOT circumventing the ban.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very strange Convergence south of Danielle. Not stacked very well yet.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Keep your shorts on. Chances are it's not even going to effect Bermuda.


dont be so sure of that

consensus has it SE of Bermuda in 5 days, I think that most of us can agree on, after that it has just as good of a chance of heading towards the west and impacting Bermuda than it does going straight north and out to sea
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Neapolitan:


Well, not so uncommon to share a name with a hurricane. My nephew is Andrew, I have an Aunt Camille, my brother is David, one of my clients is Bonnie...and I have a step-sister named Danielle. NBD...


WOW!!! at least you dont have a Katrina in there!! I feel better now at least for now until Danielle meets her resting place... (ew that was creepy to say) like talking in 3rd person but not..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2206. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2205. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Thats good,maybe a sign its slowing down..
The bats are eating everything,eating our mangoes,say what everything got to eat to live.I'm out ttyl.

Sleep well.
The sky has got quiet...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ho77yw00d:
OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!
Keep your shorts on. Chances are it's not even going to effect Bermuda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2201. will45
Quoting MississippiWx:


While the center is not directly in the middle of the ball of convection, it's pretty close. Notice the center of the upper high...Where do you see it?



yea i see it on that one getting close tho
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2200. A4Guy
cyclonicvoyage....go back to the nhc site and look at the graphics archive for ike - at no point did the forecast have ike curving as much as danielle is fcst to curve. i agree that nothing is 100%, but if i were betting, I would be on no conus threat at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.

Ha so my Ike or andrew track isn't impossible.BTW I see danielle is ramping up nicely,and it looks well organized.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17793
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


+100000, well said
Ya'll just had to remind me of that one. Galveston here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Night all. Danielle is up and running fo sho.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.

img

src="http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2008_charts/at200809.gif" alt="">


EXACTLY...thannnnk you!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2188. hunkerdown 3:17 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

Agreed, Jason seems to follow the crowd more than anything
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.


That is a good example.. Its too early to say what it will do but we all rather it be a fish storm though..
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2133
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


I hope all storms are fishes.. :P


I do too as far as the bad ones but a small tropical is cool I love storms that cause no damage or harm but yes the bad ones can go to the fish :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Slight chance at this time of Danielle hitting Bermuda. No need to worry.


Unless you live in Bermuda :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will45:


last image i saw it looked pretty close to overhead


While the center of Danielle is not directly in the middle of the ball of convection, it's pretty close. Notice the center of the upper high...Where do you see it?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
2108. jason2010xxxx 3:01 AM GMT on August 23, 2010
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Jason has had this storm pegged from jump, he's been calling fish since it was a MCC over Africa, and he will likely be proven right.
i know what i am talking about this storm DANIELLE going out to sea. its north 14.5 west 35.5 THAT IS GOING TO BE A FISH STORM.

watch u be wrong and u will be forced to eat raw crow and fish for a yr no joke
without the following of the models and the posts on here, he would never be able to forecast the track of anything...please, lets not credit where its not due. repeatedly he has said is fish, not fish, is fish, not fish based on what others say and post, so in reality he has NOT had it pegged at all. he has also said the next and next "systems" will also be fish.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2187. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Very few mossies here.
Plenty bats flying around, eating them up.
Not hearing too much about the dengue recently.
Chaguanas had about 45 cases confirmed last week or so ago.

Thats good,maybe a sign its slowing down..
The bats are eating everything,eating our mangoes,say what everything got to eat to live.I'm out ttyl.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
The whole world of models appear very confident with a pretty good concensus i would say....



pointed right at Bermuda
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting ho77yw00d:
OH no... I wanted to be on WU when I was named lol but seriously most of you know my name is Danielle and im just nervous that a hurricane with my name can cause harm to people and places, it would really suk (can I say that?) anyways for people to ask my name then look at me like I was the one who caused the destruction...ughhh oh well I just hope I am a beautiful huricane that goes out to sea!!

** no jason I am not saying it is a fish I am wishing (big difference)!!


Well, not so uncommon to share a name with a hurricane. My nephew is Andrew, I have an Aunt Camille, my brother is David, one of my clients is Bonnie...and I have a step-sister named Danielle. NBD...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nite everyone, dont let the bed bugs bite! peace
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


While I tend to agree to a point. One cannot be so darned sure, with so much time and ocean out in front. Notice the ridge, trough, ridge with IKE? Same set up down the line, ridges won the battle with IKE, Danielle is yet to be determined. And so far out, anyone who is 100% confident doesn't know much about the tropics.



+100000, well said
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874

Viewing: 2232 - 2182

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
30 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron