Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Canesinlowplaces:
I was reading somewhere that they were going to be tying out a drone this year that could stay in storms for 15 hours. I think that was out in CA though, so they may be trying it on EPac storms - anyone have additional info?


I believe NOAA has acquired a Global Hawk drone that was designed by Teledyne Ryan (now part of Northrop Grumman Corp)located by Lindberg Field in San Diego. The Global Hawk was designed for long endurances and is usually flying at 60,000 Feet or so. It has been flown from California to Australia non-stop in a demo to the Australian military.

Also, some very different and really interesting graphics from Stormchaser - good job! Do you have the link to the color EUMETSAT image that you can share?

And I am looking for a good pressure gradient map for the US, stretching across the Atlantic and Caribbean. One that is easy to read, so as to make it simple to identify the High (Ridge) Pressure and Low (Trough) Pressure systems graphically for forecasting purposes.

Got any ideas, links, anyone?

Thanks
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Notice something here, how the center dissipated at the end of the convection, the NHC should relocate the center where the eye is at. Remember we were tracking the center to the east of all that convection last night, not it has relocated inside the convection and popped an eye. This should make a more westward motion for a while, since it has relocated a bit more to the west, going by obs.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


all kidding aside ... I enjoy your commentary 100% of the time.


Thanks. Danielle appears to be coming under the influence of the second of the two highs to the NW of it and is accelerating some as a result. That would also account in part for the improvement we have seen in the last few hours and the flatter track.

At this rate we will likely have a hurricane by 5 today.
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Just some humor for everyone...
Why say fish storm arent all these storms fish storms because the form in the ocean? How about instead of yelling fish storm perhaps we should be yelling "land storm" when a storm starts to look like its heading to land? rofl! sorry just had to break all the tension
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Interesting that it is south of its forecast points so quickly, but I don't think we should read too much into that. The TPC has a really good track record once they get a well-developed LLC.
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Quoting Relix:
Pre-Earl will be the one to watch for us in the islands. Looks mighty dangerous.
a or so ago, some of the model runs had that "pre Earl" run much futher south and west. Is that what you're referring to?
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I think you are thinking of Josh Worman with the doppler truck that sat through the Hurricane. He is on discovery tornado chasers
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Quoting katrinakat5:
nothing to worry about chicklit you need to start turning your attention to the eastern gom where a surface low may form in the next 48-72 hours and move west...ssts are very warm still in the upper 80s..



Danielle looks a lot fiercer at present than the eastern GOM...but will keep an eye out! lol thanks.
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3223. Relix
Close to 15N and 40W. For folks in the islands remember our danger zone is 15N and 50W so we are pretty safe from this beautiful lady. She's about 35 miles south of her forecast points.
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3220. help4u
Some things from this season,negative NAO,positive MJO,lower shear and warm SST,equal fish storms.
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Quoting CycloneUK:
I don't consider an extratropical storm which hits the UK a fish.


It's all relative, don't ya know!
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3216. gator23
Quoting smuldy:
Miami Beach, land of 5am last call; and after watching the clip from empire that i just wrongly quoted i need to crash, its almost 10am and need to be up for work by 4.

the irony here is that across the bay there is no last call. During the super bowl the N.O. Times-Picuyne was talking garbage about a 2am last call... We dont have a 2am last call in Miami Beach and there is no time where alcohol has to stop being served in the City of Miami.We have after hours clubs that close at 10am
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Danielle is closing in on 40W very quickly and only about 15N when it gets there.

It will be interesting to see whether this new position is merely due to center relocation and a track parallel to the existing points or whether it is a relocation and course change.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Eye feature more visible with each new frame.




That was quick..
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3211. surfmom
Quoting 757weather:

hopefully, we could use some nice swell here

It's a blessing when we get surf from a FishStorm - Guilt free WAVES!!! this sadly doesn't happen much in the Gomex -- there's always someone hurting from the hit & I feel bad that what made my pleasure caused another grief and trouble.

Still Pouring here in SRQ - got to go check my bandit suburban Hens ...yesterday Fried chicken - today if this rain continues I may need to get them a raft or life jackets.
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Where's Dr. Masters? He's not following his usual schedule.

WideWVLoop

And where's Patrap? Levi and Drak are probably at school...Geeze!
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Eye feature more visible with each new frame.



Is there a link to where this image came from?
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Eye feature more visible with each new frame.

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I don't consider an extratropical storm which hits the UK a fish.
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wow danielle has intensified a bit more than what was forecast I think it will be a cat 1 storm around the 11pm advisory rather than 2 days from now, i think it has a good chance to become the first major atlantic storm this season.
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Quoting Bayside:


I think my father metioned being involved in this. I can't remember the details but for some reason I feel like they were flying out of Houston. Will see if I can get some more info. Think he is heading down there next week.


Ok. Thanks. :) I'm all for learning more about these things. There's a man who chases tornadoes I think he has a show on Discovery?? Anyway, he placed his doppler truck into the path of Jeanne, I believe, in 2004. He recorded wind bursts (whatever he called them) that were from the hurricane itself. After viewing the damage he figured out they were not from tornadoes as previously thought. The way a tornado can level one house and not the other right next door. I had heard something of this after Rita. Which made perfect sense to me. Because that's exactly what happened on our street. Our home and my late mother-in-law's property across the street were the only ones destroyed. Maybe someone was trying to tell us something. Lol. Anyway, ALL of the damage, trees, poles, debris, etc. was going due south. I really didn't start learning about hurricanes until 2008. But was surprised that they hadn't known that until 2004. So much we still don't know. But am hopeful they can learn more on their mission.
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3199. surfmom
Quoting tropicfreak:


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?


PRAYERS UP^^^^^^^
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Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??

hopefully, we could use some nice swell here
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3197. surfmom
Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??
Quoting katrinakat5:
tropic freak good surfing weather thats about it...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Excellent surfing conditions.


should clean-up well, but... I think the initial waves will be as Aurasurf called it: "Too bad the FL EC is going to be all choppy for this next swell. PR is gonna get the goods. East swell will go NE and be met by light SE winds so Next weekend looks real good down on the Isla del Encanto."

nevertheless -- I know a lot of surfers are smiling and waxing their boards
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Quoting tropicfreak:


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?


If the remarkable model consensus and the NHC track were to verify...yes
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Quoting Chucktown:


That's because we only get 3 and a half minutes to do weather. Sadly, my viewers don't really care about Danielle out in the Atlantic, even though we are very susceptible to hurricanes here in Charleston. I would love to talk about the dynamics of Danielle and the different scenarios, but that's what TV weather has come down to. Is it going to rain in my backyard and how hot is it going to be. Granted if there was a situation where a tropical system was going to effect our area, we would be wall to wall with coverage. Its just the nature of the beast unfortunately.

Sadly, this is so true. When I try to talk to ppl about hurricanes, they say that they do remember it is hurricane season but nothing will happen here. Oh the fools that forget about HUGO!
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Models all showing wave behind Danielle (future Earl) will not affect the CONUS either. Looks like the Cape Verdes storms this year are destined for Bermuda or the fish. Too many troughs.


Thats way to far out.
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3188. SLU
Certainly developing into a hurricane.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Excellent surfing conditions.


So thats the worst we are going to see from her?
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Quoting tropicfreak:
will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??


Excellent surfing conditions.
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will we see any impacts from danielle on the east coast like some high surf??
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There's a chance that PGI34L, if it were to develop, will dissipate in the CATL after some time.

We'll see what happens.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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