Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2432. Thaale
GFS run complete, 384 hours. Danielle recurves, following CV storm recurves. Not much else happening. Obviously not very reliable past six-seven days.
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2431. hcubed
Quoting doorman79:
Yes, but from the other end. Think about how much can be made by the names he has had in the last 5 years!!!! just saying


If you look at it another way, however, think of all the names he's using up, by those who could be paying customers.

And, if he needs a new email address for each name, think of the workload on his ISP - providing lots of addresses (and allowing the abuse of them) just to feed his ego.

As if anyone wants to hear what he has to say...
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2429. will45
Quoting txsweetpea:

Yea I know...I just have a suspicion it is going to surprise us!


well ya never know . they have done many weird things in the past. But like i said i wouldnt base anything on just one model this far out
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2427. xcool


.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2426. Thaale
Quoting leo305:


huh? The high to the west strengthens how did it break through the ridge?? when it rebuilds to its north?

Don't forget, tropical cyclones are atmospheric features too. They're not just pinballs following the contour of the atmosphere - they are part of the atmosphere, and very influential parts at that.
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2425. xcool
leo305 .if i'm wrong .Please let me know.thanks.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting will45:

nope more east but this just one model

Yea I know...I just have a suspicion it is going to surprise us!
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2422. xcool
Gearsts not nice
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2421. leo305
Quoting xcool:
posting 2403
leo305 4


if that's the center, the mid level low is well to it's west
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2420. will45
Quoting txsweetpea:

Has Danielle shifted any west?

nope more east but this just one model
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2419. xcool
neonlazer. center east side convection
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting xcool:


updateee .


I know I am probably reading this wrong, but it looks like it would go west into the Caribean...
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2416. will45
Quoting btwntx08:

i saw a low in the boc in 84 but doesnt do much


ok my old eyes missed that lol
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting will45:
2389. txsweetpea 12:33 AM EDT on August 23, 2010

i dont see much in the GOM on this GFS run

Has Danielle shifted any west?
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2414. leo305
Quoting Thaale:
180 hours:


huh? The high to the west strengthens how did it break through the ridge?? when it rebuilds to its north?
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting will45:
2389. txsweetpea 12:33 AM EDT on August 23, 2010

i dont see much in the GOM on this GFS run
it also has dropped "Earl" after showing him for the first part of the run
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Quoting leo305:
mhm it looks like the center is under the deepest convection and trying to form an eye, I see the heaviest convection spinning, but idk there's a lot of easterly shear blowing on it..


Yea, It looks like the center of the convection is cirulating pretty good..not sure if it isn't stacked or why others are saying the center is on the very east side of the convection. Anyone explain?
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2410. xcool
posting 2403
leo305 4
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2408. leo305
mhm it looks like the center is under the deepest convection and trying to form an eye, I see the heaviest convection spinning, but idk there's a lot of easterly shear blowing on it..
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2407. xcool
[
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2406. xcool
she need to under the deep convection
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2405. mbjjm

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personally I think Danielle is a hurricane already and its about 70 miles south of the forecast point, anyway
when the sun comes up tomorrow I'll have an idea if I'm right or wrong.
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2403. xcool

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2402. will45
2389. txsweetpea 12:33 AM EDT on August 23, 2010

i dont see much in the GOM on this GFS run
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Possibly.. people been reporting that with these storms that been moving through the area and maybe towards u..


Where are you claire? Im just north of lafayette and went outside..it was completely calm then i felt a slight breeze for a minute..but back to calm..that wasn't much..but BEAUTIFUL heat lightning!
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2400. Thaale
Quoting txsweetpea:

When will it be available?

It's available now at the NOAA site among others. Still partial, up to 180 hours now. You can click on Loop under 850mb to get the model run animated, or choose any available forecast point below that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/model_m.shtml
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Quoting xcool:
center is not directly under the deep convection nott yet



it will, so we might as well track the center of it
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2398. mbjjm



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2397. xcool
center is not directly under the deep convection nott yet

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
2396. will45
Quoting txsweetpea:

When will it be available?


well on GFS she is well past Bermuda to the East on current run. It is almost finished
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
2395. xcool
she getting fat all that...
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2393. Thaale
180 hours:
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2392. JRRP
Quoting xcool:
she off forecast points .wnw

yeah looks like that
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back to lerkin and watching the back slapper. last post.
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2390. xcool
i'm used RAMSDIS Online
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Thaale:

GFS is running as we speak. It's through six days now. Scroll up to post 2370.

When will it be available?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

yeah turn on trop pts here
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2387. xcool
'
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
just fyi, during Katrina, i read from several of ya that she would die as she crossed FL, obviously that didn't happen, then recently, some have said that the everglades had no effect when noted science has said to the contrary.
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2385. Thaale
Quoting txsweetpea:
When do the new updated models come out?

GFS is running as we speak. It's through six days now. Scroll up to post 2370.
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2384. xcool
VAbeachhurricanes .you seeing that huh.She's got magic.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
When do the new updated models come out?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.