Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2482. Walshy
Quoting Thaale:
GFS run complete, 384 hours. Danielle recurves, following CV storm recurves. Not much else happening. Obviously not very reliable past six-seven days.


I don't think science has developed enough for storms 3days out yet. That is why this blog has comments pouring in 24-7 with each and every update on the storm.
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2481. will45
Quoting hunkerdown:
amusement


you need a life
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Quoting will45:
why dont you guys and gals use the ignore button if you dont want to see his comments.


agreed I have all 7 of his names on ignore
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Quoting will45:
why dont you guys and gals use the ignore button if you dont want to see his comments.
amusement, what most people on here provide...
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2477. will45
why dont you guys and gals use the ignore button if you dont want to see his comments.
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2473. hunkerdown 5:07 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

If thats good work, than I can work for the NHC lol
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2474. xcool
FLPandhandleJG yes
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
jason2010xxxx .keep up good work
what ever that is...
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2472. Prgal
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
I KNOW TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS GOING OUT TO SEA BY LOOKING AT IT. ITS READY 14.5 NORTH PEOLPE. ITS THAT FAR NORTH READY ITS GOING TO BE A FISH STORM IF YOU DO NOT LIKE IT TO BAD.. THIS STORM IS GOING OUT TO SEA..


Jason, people dont "listen" to you for a couple of reasons: first, you repeat the same thing over and over and over and over...; second, you have your caps on and it MEANS THAT YOU ARE YELLING; third, you write...kind of weird...
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Quoting xcool:
FLPandhandleJG .i'm doom thank for image ;(


xcool.. That white on that image that I posted looks like a smaller version of LA.. ;)
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
I KNOW TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS GOING OUT TO SEA BY LOOKING AT IT. ITS READY 14.5 NORTH PEOLPE. ITS THAT FAR NORTH READY ITS GOING TO BE A FISH STORM IF YOU DO NOT LIKE IT TO BAD.. THIS STORM IS GOING OUT TO SEA..


storm and Levi stated the the "for sure" was if it hit 40/20
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2467. xcool
jason2010xxxx .keep up good work
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Conditions at 13008 as of
0400 GMT on 08/23/2010:
15.000 N 38.000 W

Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1006.7 mb
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg)
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2465. xcool
FLPandhandleJG .i'm doom thank for image ;(
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2464. xcool
she move to w at 13mph
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2460. Gearsts
OK is not!But still get shear frm behind.
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2459. xcool
Hurricanes101 .i think he lost .
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2454. Gearsts 4:59 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

none of the center is exposed
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2456. xcool
FLPandhandleJG LOL
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No its not exposed.. lol.. that was a tricky image though.. ;)
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2454. Gearsts
Quoting Hurricanes101:
2440. Gearsts 4:55 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

center is not exposed
Not the whole center but it is.But it shouldnt have much problem getting stronger
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2453. will45
Quoting leo305:


if you look at the satellite the high level clouds are blowing against Danielle, and Danielle is fighting it off as it erupts


thats the anticyclone it needs to move directly overhead and then it will be vertically stacked
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


yeah shes south of it
If she's verticle, about a 1/2 degree S.
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2450. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not really, shear is marginal and becoming more favorable


if you look at the satellite the high level clouds are blowing against Danielle, and Danielle is fighting it off as it erupts
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Quoting Gearsts:
He's a sad person in life.Leave the poor guy alone...LOL ;)
i believe quite the opposite, probably quite jolly
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2448. xcool
hunkerdown .no.he email me asking for help .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not really, shear is marginal and becoming more favorable

Yep



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2445. xcool
Gearsts .no not .
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2440. Gearsts 4:55 AM GMT on August 23, 2010

center is not exposed
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2441. xcool
btwntx08 .plz stop .he really nice guy
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2440. Gearsts
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Its going to show its ugly face soon.. and yes its getting bigger.. the last 6 frames u can tell..

Danielle_Animation
Center is expose but i think maybe 60mph on the next update ;)
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Quoting btwntx08:
its funny thing we know jason is looney cause he sees our comments about him but ignores thats not showing the ability to get back over u
then lets start treating him like Bob Sheets...we need to constantly bug him for his analysis and have him put his phd to work...
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Quoting leo305:
Oh my it really is fighting that shear


not really, shear is marginal and becoming more favorable
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Its going to show its ugly face soon.. and yes its getting bigger.. the last 6 frames u can tell..

Danielle_Animation
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2434. leo305
Oh my it really is fighting that shear
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2433. xcool


decreasing wind shear . blue colored
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2432. Thaale
GFS run complete, 384 hours. Danielle recurves, following CV storm recurves. Not much else happening. Obviously not very reliable past six-seven days.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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