Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting leo305:
I don't like how half the blog is on ignore or hidden, like the comments are. I have to click show to everyone.. how do I fix that?


Top right of comment box it says "FILTER" with a drop down menu
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Thanks to both of you! And I will bring any information I can to this blog.

ur welcome.. Good info is always welcome.. I try to do so as well.. Nothing wrong with that..
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Thanks to both of you! And I will bring any information I can to this blog.


It should be fun to forecast alongside you on this site in the future, as you learn more. I look forward to that greatly. :D
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2529. will45
CMC on drugs agin
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Yea I know.. But U got ppl all over the world that may lurk or sign up on here.. From Very young to old.. So ur going to get WTH post from ppl and ur going to learn a lot from this blog.. Specially from Storm, Levi, and others.. Thats good for u tho.. Hope u do well in school tho..
Quoting KoritheMan:


Congratulations! Best of luck to you!


Thanks to both of you! And I will bring any information I can to this blog.
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Quoting xcool:
RuBRNded .i try give good info,

and u do.. I appreciate and so do others.. thx mane..
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2525. leo305
I don't like how half the blog is on ignore or hidden, like the comments are. I have to click show to everyone.. how do I fix that?
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2524. xcool
RuBRNded thanks..
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Quoting xcool:
RuBRNded .i try give good info,


you do bro, the comment was not dirrected to you or 99% of the peeps here
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2521. xcool
jason2010xxxx: keep posting :)
I respect you
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Well but then again it prepares you for life more than college ever could. But I hope one day to be among the names such as Levi or Storm (really more of a dream) as I start my atmo sci degree tmrw. Both are great people to look up to and tell their own estimation and whether right or wrong I give them more respect then most on here.


Yea I know.. But U got ppl all over the world that may lurk or sign up on here.. From Very young to old.. So ur going to get WTH post from ppl and ur going to learn a lot from this blog.. Specially from Storm, Levi, and others.. Thats good for u tho.. Hope u do well in school tho..
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Quoting texwarhawk:


Well but then again it prepares you for life more than college ever could. But I hope one day to be among the names such as Levi or Storm (really more of a dream) as I start my atmo sci degree tmrw. Both are great people to look up to and tell their own estimation and whether right or wrong I give them more respect then most on here.


Congratulations! Best of luck to you!
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2516. xcool
RuBRNded .i try give good info,
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:
Nice video, Jason. Lots of good info in one place. I like the Van Halen music too.
ahhh, ever visit this certain site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Quoting xcool:

I respect blog & people on here .


me too, just realize some peeps come here for REAL information. Most of you give real info, some play games for attention that there babysitter didn't give them.
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Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


The thing is.. Its like this on a lot of blogs, social networks, youtube, and ect.. Just saying!!! So i wouldnt get to caught up into this virtual mess.. lol


Well but then again it prepares you for life more than college ever could. But I hope one day to be among the names such as Levi or Storm (really more of a dream) as I start my atmo sci degree tmrw. Both are great people to look up to and tell their own estimation and whether right or wrong I give them more respect then most on here.
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2511. xcool
god i hate drama i really do .anyway back weather .
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
wow all the Computer Modeles going out to sea i win this time around..
that is one model, the GFS which is comprised of many ensembles which show the various track outcomes when input with every type of condition possible.
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2507. mbjjm
This time of year, there are a series of trough which comes of the Eastern Seaboard. They act to recurve storms. If the system misses one trough, the second or thirds sends it out to sea. Storms in Danielles position do not head towards the U.S. Climatologically speaking.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
You know it maybe just me, but when I'm on the blog I expect people to act like adults. Yall should be outraged at yourselves when a Freshman in college (who should be looking up to you) looks down on you. Geez keep any hurtful comments to yourself it just makes you look like a failure.
I don't know about everybody else, but I am appalled, and outraged, at myself...NOT. Please understand that a lot of people on here are not even of the college freshman age yet.
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2505. will45
Quoting xcool:

I respect blog & people on here .


yes you do xcool
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2503. xcool

I respect blog & people on here .
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Quoting texwarhawk:
You know it maybe just me, but when I'm on the blog I expect people to act like adults. Yall should be outraged at yourselves when a Freshman in college (who should be looking up to you) looks down on you. Geez keep any hurtful comments to yourself it just makes you look like a failure.


The thing is.. Its like this on a lot of blogs, social networks, youtube, and ect.. Just saying!!! So i wouldnt get to caught up into this virtual mess.. lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i dont no wish is more a anyoinng haveing a Quote or have too here jason2010xxxx fat mouth talking about fish storms


lol, fat mouth translation, but i agree.
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2500. will45
Quoting xcool:


back west.. hmmm


dont point it at me xcool lol
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2499. Gearsts
Thanks
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2498. xcool


back west.. hmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know it maybe just me, but when I'm on the blog I expect people to act like adults. Yall should be outraged at yourselves when a Freshman in college (who should be looking up to you) looks down on you. Geez keep any hurtful comments to yourself it just makes you look like a failure.
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2496. wjdow
Quoting RuBRNded:


do i need special glasses?


lol very funny
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2494. will45
Quoting Gearsts:
Anyone can link me GFS and CMC runs?thanks :)


Link
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Quoting mbjjm:
All the models now resume recurving Danielle east of Bermuda, away from the US harmless out to sea.


Latest Computer Models


Just to let u know they keep going back and forth.. Unless it holds for awhile.. I wouldnt write it of yet.. I do want it a fish storm though..
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2492. Gearsts
Anyone can link me GFS and CMC runs?thanks :)
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Quoting will45:


you need a life
quite the contrary...
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Conditions at 13008 as of
0400 GMT on 08/23/2010:
15.000 N 38.000 W

Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1006.7 mb
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg)

Guess I will post this again since it got lost in the Jason and friends show
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
2486. mbjjm
All the models now resume recurving Danielle east of Bermuda, away from the US harmless out to sea.


Latest Computer Models
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2483. xcool
hunkerdown come on now be nice.thanks.
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2482. Walshy
Quoting Thaale:
GFS run complete, 384 hours. Danielle recurves, following CV storm recurves. Not much else happening. Obviously not very reliable past six-seven days.


I don't think science has developed enough for storms 3days out yet. That is why this blog has comments pouring in 24-7 with each and every update on the storm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.