Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2582. mbjjm
Quoting will45:


we will say what NHC says in a few minutes


Next Nhc update 5am
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2581. xcool
will45.nhc nw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2580. JLPR2
I'm really confused, Danielle looks way off track, but then again that may be the mid level circulation, and if so Danielle is doing horrible but if the LLC is under the blob then...
yikes! XD

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2579. will45
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Id say its moving WNW


we will say what NHC says in a few minutes
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2578. xcool
hurricane come soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2577. xcool
FLPandhandleJG .ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2576. xcool
txsweetpea.not really.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
FLPandhandleJG take care ;0

thx u too pimp
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Id say its moving WNW
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2573. leo305
Quoting txsweetpea:


Well that is not good. has that been anticipated by the NHC or models?


no
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2572. xcool
FLPandhandleJG take care ;0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
100% MOVE WEST. AT 13MPH


Well that is not good. has that been anticipated by the NHC or models?
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Well I am hitting the sack.. Well y'all take care and play nice.. lol Try to be back later today.. L8r peeps
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These storms going through central LA are creating more lightning than I have seen all year combined! It's been flashing nicely outside for well over an hour...these just don't run out of electrical powa!
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2567. will45
Link

CMC
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2566. xcool
OFF forecast point
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2564. Walshy
wonrg
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2562. mbjjm
Seasonally meaning storms in its current position this time of the year are usually fishes.
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Quoting leo305:
if the ridge re builds to the north of the system, and the high strengthens to it's west I don't see how it can just break through like nothing and move NNE against the high..

so CMC may not be on crack.. after all it's one of the most accurate this season so far
I am hearing the sounds of a certain Doors song in my head...
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2560. Walshy

I see two lines hitting land. I see several near Bermuda and if its a hurricane then it will affect them as it grows bigger or in wave height. I guess I could say that about Canada too.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



can i give it more lol
Quoting btwntx08:
once we know its a fish we'll know until then NO FISH this is seriously at jason


sushi almost?
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2558. xcool


EYE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2557. leo305
Quoting xcool:
100% MOVE WEST. AT 13MPH


makes sense, since the North easterly shear is still blasting on it, and it's fighting it, so it's being pushed more southerly than northerly because of that imo
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2556. Gearsts
it will slow down and maybe drift west...When it hits that banana ridge
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2555. Walshy
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
wow all the Computer Modeles going out to sea i win this time around..



I see two lines hitting land. I see several near Bermuda and if its a hurricane then it will affect them.
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2554. will45
Quoting leo305:
if the ridge re builds to the north of the system, and the high strengthens to it's west I don't see how it can just break through like nothing and move NNE against the high..

so CMC may not be on crack.. after all it's one of the most accurate this season so far


look how many it developes tho
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Quoting mbjjm:


If Danielle was weaker to take a more southern track, say in the direction of the Bahamas or SE U.S coast and the trough creates a weakness along the coast Daniele in that case could feel the weakness and could be drawn towards the U.S. Some of the models were hinting on this last night, but have moved back to the seasonal recurvate.
storms don't recurve because of the season...
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2552. xcool
leo305 ,I THINK YOUR RIGTH NOW.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Tazmanian:




i dont no wish is more a anyoinng haveing a Quote or have too here jason2010xxxx fat mouth talking about fish storms
or you crying about it.
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Quoting btwntx08:
once we know its a fish we'll know until then NO FISH this is seriously at jason



heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
2549. xcool
100% MOVE WEST. AT 13MPH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2547. leo305
if the ridge re builds to the north of the system, and the high strengthens to it's west I don't see how it can just break through like nothing and move NNE against the high..

so CMC may not be on crack.. after all it's one of the most accurate this season so far
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2546. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Yes, I go there everyday, I also visit CIMSS on a regular basis, but like me, there many here that also like Jason's videos such as Aquak9, kaymanisalndman, Tkeith and others

well than MH09 can start ahnding out his leftover cookies...there are just as many, if not more, that dislike them.
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I realize that the models give us an idea of what may be to come but really this storm is too far out and any direction can happen....due west...due north...north east. wnw...we just need to pay attention and keep up with stearing currents, troughs/ridges, and be prepared. To continuously say things that in my opinion is to just aggravate others is simply immature. Who on here thinks Danielle could take a more westerly track despite the models. i mean we have all seen the models change from north to west or north to east at some point in our tracking of these storms. It would be wonderful if what Jason is saying is correct , however I just wish I had the link to study the ridges and troughs more to be sure , because actually that is what is going to control the direction of Danielle correct?
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2543. leo305
Quoting xcool:


omg SHE FAT. SHE NEED jenny craig HAHA


there's a dot at the end of that loop inside the convection
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Quoting will45:


lol no but you can lock it up



ok but be for i do i take it too the bare and i can have it drive me home lol
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2541. xcool
CMC STALLED HMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2540. mbjjm
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
by wednesdat night vert big trough go to the east coast by wednesday its going to be 72F IN NEW HAVEN where i live at and at night in the mid 40S that big trought will kick that tropical storm way out to sea..


If Danielle was weaker to take a more southern track, say in the direction of the Bahamas or SE U.S coast and the trough creates a weakness along the coast Daniele in that case could feel the weakness and could be drawn towards the U.S. Some of the models were hinting on this last night, but have moved back to the seasonal recurvate.
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2538. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:



can i give it more lol


lol no but you can lock it up
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2537. xcool
btwntx08 .YES 100%. ARE YOU OKAY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting will45:
CMC on drugs agin



can i give it more lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
2534. xcool


omg SHE FAT. SHE NEED jenny craig HAHA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
hmmm, south Fla here, highs Tuesday through Thursday 92, dropping to a chilly 90 on Friday and lows 77 through the entire week...not feeling squat in the was of any front and I am north of 26* N.
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Quoting leo305:
I don't like how half the blog is on ignore or hidden, like the comments are. I have to click show to everyone.. how do I fix that?


Top right of comment box it says "FILTER" with a drop down menu
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.