Tropical Depression Six arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010

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Tropical Storm Tropical Depression Six is here, but it will not be a threat to land for at least the next five days. Tropical Depression Six is a classic "Cape Verdes"-type storm common during the peak part of hurricane season. Cape Verdes-type storms are so named because they form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verdes Islands just west of Africa. Cape Verdes hurricanes are the largest and most dangerous types of hurricane in the Atlantic, since they spend a long time over water have and have of opportunity to reach full maturity. Tropical Depression Six has a ways to go before it becomes a hurricane, as the storm is embedded in a strong easterly flow of wind courtesy of the African Monsoon that is generating a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. There is also a tropical disturbance to the northeast of TD 6 that is sucking away some moisture and is interfering with the storm's circulation. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a warm 28°C, and the storm is embedded in a moist environment, so wind shear is the primary inhibiting factor for development. The strong east winds imparting the shear are keeping any heavy thunderstorms from developing on the east side of the center of circulation, which is exposed to view in satellite imagery (Figure 1.)


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.

Forecast for Tropical Depression Six
A ridge of high pressure will force Tropical Depression Six to the west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 10 mph to 15 mph by Monday night. A powerful trough of low pressure over the mid-Atlantic Ocean will begin to pull Tropical Depression Six more to the northwest late this week, and the storm should pass well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. It remains to be seen, however, it this trough will be strong enough to fully recurve Tropical Depression Six out to sea. The GFS predicts that Tropical Depression Six may pass close to Bermuda about eight days from now, and it is also possible that Tropical Depression Six could eventually hit the U.S. East Coast 9 - 15 days from now. However, we have no skill in making these sort of ultra-long range forecasts, and the long-range fate of TD 6 is uncertain.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are predicting formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa 3 - 4 days from now.

Jeff Masters

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2832. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Not a mammal, but a....
I will not say the F word!
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Quoting IKE:


At least the air will be dryer. Forecast here is for highs in the upper 90's the next few days, but lower humidity.

96 hour GFS shows Danielle and maybe Earl(headed in the same direction)...



Yeah, we'll take what dry we can get. As for the storms I hope they do follow each other out to sea. Haven't looked at models in couple days though. Had an important b-day engagement this weekend. Grandbaby turned five. Man, a roomful of kids can wear ya out. Lol.
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2830. scott39
If the first trough is expected to bypass Danielle, what is going to make her turn more N?
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2829. surfmom
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


well dont worry the unpopular stance is becoming popular


BAwhaaahaaa - great line - Big belly laugh
Enjoying the read this morning
Lordy, this stuff so fascinates me even if I only understand half it
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From our NWS in Peachtree City:

.SYNOPSIS...
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING THAT PROMISES TO BRING SOME
WELCOME CHANGES TO THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. UPPER FLOW
WILL REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OBSERVED IN RECENT WEEKS. KEY
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL PERSIST AND BE
REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRAVELING AROUND A BROAD
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
PUSHING THROUGH GA...WILL STALL ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE U.S. DURING MID-WEEK...WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE SFC HIGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE SCENARIO WILL YIELD DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
ACROSS OUR CWA THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN WEEKS...WITH THE CAVEAT AND
CONCERN BEING THAT THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MUST BE
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.

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2827. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Not a mammal, but a....
Marsupial
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2826. smuldy
Repost as requested
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Good morning guys wow looking at Sat and I really don't think that it is that far north and east or if it was the it had moved west and a bit south why I say that is because for stronger storms that are developing into hurricanes like our TS Danielle you can see the higher clouds start to take up this cyclonic motion and then if picks up enough motion it helps to form clouds

link to sat is here

Link

so ok after looking at this I see the COC at 14.2N 38.2W moving west and I am 98.99999999999999999% sure
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2823. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I didn't think any way was that getting this far south. OOOPS! lol. I was wrong imagine that. :) Ah well. At least it's going to cool off.

AREAS...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL AND SAW
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THEM...HAVE SEEN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100...HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT REACHED 109 AT KAEX AND 110 AT KARA
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
STILL THINK THAT SOME CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY...MAY ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. AFTER
MAKING TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...AM
ONLY GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 102 AND 107.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RE-ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THE HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW THE LOCAL CRITERIA NEEDED.

;)



At least the air will be dryer. Forecast here is for highs in the upper 90's the next few days, but lower humidity.

96 hour GFS shows Danielle and maybe Earl(headed in the same direction)...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2822. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Tropical Storm Danielle Nearing Hurricane Strength...
Aug 23, 2010 6:03 AM

Tropical Storm Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning, and is approaching hurricane strength as the sun rises. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Danielle was located some 1600 miles east of the U.S. Virgin Islands and had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. Danielle is now moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph with an increase in forward speed expected through the day. The storm is expected to become a hurricane later today.

The track forecast for Danielle is essentially unchanged as the major players on the field are fairly well accounted for... at least over the next several days. An upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Danielle should steer the system in a general west-northwest direction across the open Atlantic over the next couple of days while Danielle gains strength. As we look ahead to Wednesday, an upper-level trough passing across the central Atlantic will cause a weakness to develop in the ridge, and Danielle should slow down and turn more to the northwest in response to this. It remains unclear as to how much this trough will be able to pick up Danielle and turn her eastward.

As it stands now, we expect the trough to bypass Danielle, and the cyclone may even turn back to the west-northwest for a time or even stall altogether. A second trough will push into the Atlantic, however, by the weekend and should keep Danielle from becoming a threat to North America. Bermuda, on the other-hand, will have to monitor this system closely as we expect Danielle to be at hurricane strength at closest approach. The current thinking is that Danielle will remain east of Bermuda, but that could easily change as we head through the week. Regardless, rough surf can be expected later in the week and over the weekend.

With regard to the strength of Danielle, one factor keeping this storm from going nuts is moderate upper level easterly shear. This should abate over the next 24 hours, but then relatively dry air will become the limiting factor for a day or two... and after getting past this obstacle upper-level wind shear will increase with the aforementioned series of upper-level troughs moving through the North Atlantic. Therefore, strengthening should be fairly slow but steady over the next several days with Danielle becoming a Category 2 Hurricane in four-days time.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin there is a strong tropical wave emerging off of the coast of Africa and will have to be monitored over the next few days. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is also something to keep an eye on, but has a very low probability of developing.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins
So the first trough is expected to bypass. What is going to make her go NW soon? According to track forecast. Seems like it will have to shift left.
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TropicalStormDanielle's heading has been holding fairly steady, changing only from 4.8degrees north of WestNorthWest to 4.7degrees north of WestNorthWest.
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
22Aug - 09amGMT - 12.1n33.4w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.3
22Aug - 12pmGMT - 12.2n33.9w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
22Aug - 03pmGMT - 12.7n34.1w - - 35mph . . . . 1007mb - NHC.Adv.4
22Aug - 06pmGMT - 13.2n34.6w - - 30knots . . . 1007mb - NHC-ATCF
NHC upgrades TD6 to TS.Danielle
22Aug - 09pmGMT - 13.4n35.1w - - 40mph . . . . 1005mb - NHC.Adv.5
23Aug - 12amGMT - 13.9n35.4w - - 40knots . . . 1003mb - NHC-ATCF *14.0n35.3w*
23Aug - 03amGMT - 14.2n35.9w - - 50mph . . . . 1000mb - NHC.Adv.6
23Aug - 06amGMT - 14.5n36.5w - - 50knots - - - - 997mb - NHC-ATCF *14.8n36.0w,45knots,1000mb*
23Aug - 09amGMT - 14.8n37.1w - - 60 mph . . . . . 997mb - NHC.Adv.7
~43.5knots=50mph _ _ _ 50knots=~57.5mph _ _ _ ~52.2knots=60mph
NHC rounds windspeeds to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

*before NHC reevaluated&altered TS.Danielle's path*

Copy&paste 13.4n35.1w-13.9n35.4w, 13.9n35.4w-14.2n35.9w, 14.2n35.9w-14.5n36.5w, 14.5n36.5w-14.8n37.1w, hex, bda, sid, pos into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

And CONGRATULATIONS to the WUbers who spotted a smoother, more westward movement than what the NHC had been posting through its TS-center positions.
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2820. breald
Oh Boy, I hope the people of Bermuda is keeping a close eye on this storm.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303


You can tell the centre of circulation is on the eastern side.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:
Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....




I didn't think any way was that getting this far south. OOOPS! lol. I was wrong imagine that. :) Ah well. At least it's going to cool off.

AREAS...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...THAT RECEIVED THE RAINFALL AND SAW
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH THROUGH THEM...HAVE SEEN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO EVEN THOUGH THESE
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100...HEAT INDEX READINGS THAT REACHED 109 AT KAEX AND 110 AT KARA
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY. SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS.
STILL THINK THAT SOME CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY...MAY ALSO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. AFTER
MAKING TWEAKS TO GUIDANCE DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...AM
ONLY GETTING HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 102 AND 107.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO RE-ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS THE HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW THE LOCAL CRITERIA NEEDED.

;)

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2816. scott39
Quoting IKE:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING
FEATURES A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN...A LARGE HOT
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG
ISLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA...AND THEN W INTO N TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING SWD TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAS EVIDENT
ON THE ATLANTA AND BIRMINGHAM 00Z SOUNDINGS.
thanks
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This was the first intensity forecast from Blake on 5pm EDT Saturday:

ORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 11.0N 32.1W 25 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 11.5N 33.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 35.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 13.6N 38.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 14.4N 41.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 47.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 21.0N 52.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 55.5W 95 KT

Hurricane by late Monday originally. Could have been a good call.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2814. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Is that the trough at the tip of 30N or higher at 40N?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 AM EDT MON AUG 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS N AMERICA THIS MORNING
FEATURES A TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN...A LARGE HOT
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR LONG
ISLAND SWWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL
GA...AND THEN W INTO N TX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR PUSHING SWD TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WAS EVIDENT
ON THE ATLANTA AND BIRMINGHAM 00Z SOUNDINGS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2813. IKE
Tropical Storm Danielle Nearing Hurricane Strength...
Aug 23, 2010 6:03 AM

Tropical Storm Danielle has continued to strengthen this morning, and is approaching hurricane strength as the sun rises. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Danielle was located some 1600 miles east of the U.S. Virgin Islands and had maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph. Danielle is now moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph with an increase in forward speed expected through the day. The storm is expected to become a hurricane later today.

The track forecast for Danielle is essentially unchanged as the major players on the field are fairly well accounted for... at least over the next several days. An upper-level ridge of high pressure north of Danielle should steer the system in a general west-northwest direction across the open Atlantic over the next couple of days while Danielle gains strength. As we look ahead to Wednesday, an upper-level trough passing across the central Atlantic will cause a weakness to develop in the ridge, and Danielle should slow down and turn more to the northwest in response to this. It remains unclear as to how much this trough will be able to pick up Danielle and turn her eastward.

As it stands now, we expect the trough to bypass Danielle, and the cyclone may even turn back to the west-northwest for a time or even stall altogether. A second trough will push into the Atlantic, however, by the weekend and should keep Danielle from becoming a threat to North America. Bermuda, on the other-hand, will have to monitor this system closely as we expect Danielle to be at hurricane strength at closest approach. The current thinking is that Danielle will remain east of Bermuda, but that could easily change as we head through the week. Regardless, rough surf can be expected later in the week and over the weekend.

With regard to the strength of Danielle, one factor keeping this storm from going nuts is moderate upper level easterly shear. This should abate over the next 24 hours, but then relatively dry air will become the limiting factor for a day or two... and after getting past this obstacle upper-level wind shear will increase with the aforementioned series of upper-level troughs moving through the North Atlantic. Therefore, strengthening should be fairly slow but steady over the next several days with Danielle becoming a Category 2 Hurricane in four-days time.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic basin there is a strong tropical wave emerging off of the coast of Africa and will have to be monitored over the next few days. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is also something to keep an eye on, but has a very low probability of developing.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Randy Adkins
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2812. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....


Is that the trough at the tip of 30N or higher at 40N?
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I don't see it being right under it, it's still suffering from shear.

It's on the eastern side like it has been, but it is a bit better than it was.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2810. scott39
Can anyone show the first trough dipping down?
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2809. IKE
Dry air is approaching northern Florida.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2808. smuldy
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



I know but even the IR supports this if you loop it
IR Loop

if you look storms will not move to the north unless they are on the east side of the COC and the storms are moving northward on the east half of that CDO
ya looks like the center is still on the east side but coser to middle of convection on that ir loop, maybe 14.5n 38.5w; tough to tell; as for long term track i was fighting the computer models all night until the steering map came out and showed the trough due to hit the atlantic already dipping to 30n, so even if it misses initial points that trough still looks to be near to as strong as the models suggested despite the time of year and lack of a major ridge behind it, so i have to concede the models may have nailed it for the time being; we will know more based on the speed that the trough moves westward and amount of the storm's outflow into the northern ridge by tonight
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now that shear isnt much of an issue in the short term(beautiful outflow) not far reaching but very uniform "buzzsaw type", dry air intrusion from the NW will try to eat away at the left side of danielle as she presses her way westward. she is holding her own so far and, she bring along a very moist air mass with her.
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Morning all.

Quoting Cotillion:


Kimberlain's one of the more conservative forecasters. Although, his reasoning is probably shear related which is still undoubtedly affecting Danielle. Slow strengthening is a reasonable forecast, though this is probably a touch on the low side. Especially as Danielle could be 65mph already.

If it's only kept her in check so far, who knows what she'll do given the right opportunity. Looks like, at least for the next three days, shear'll be a bit of a roadblock.
Even Kimberlain himself says "conservatively" on the intensity call. I think they want to see what it looks like when the sun comes up.

Anyway, I gotta run... will check in later today if time permits, though it's supposed to be a busy one today....

Ya'll have a good one!
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good morning. Looks like our girls getting her act together. And this may not be a popular stance but it looks to me like the center is missing the forecast points by oh, about a billion miles. :) Link


well dont worry the unpopular stance is becoming popular
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Good morning. Looks like our girls getting her act together. And this may not be a popular stance but it looks to me like the center is missing the forecast points by oh, about a billion miles. :) Link
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2803. Walshy
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



First Vis ... are you sure the center is not right under the middle of that convection???




Classic signature of a developing hurricane.
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Quoting smuldy:
you may be right, and that sat image certainy looks healthier, but until we can get loops on visible we can't say for sure, cannot see cloudtop circulation nevermind convection
without loops



I know but even the IR supports this if you loop it
IR Loop

if you look storms will not move to the north unless they are on the east side of the COC and the storms are moving northward on the east half of that CDO
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2801. smuldy
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
can anyone show me proof that the center is not right under the middle there... outflow is incredible in all quadrants if that indeed is the center and we are borderline hurricane if that is the case... I think the center used to be further out but this is relocating right into the middle of the CDO
you may be right, and that sat image certainy looks healthier, but until we can get loops on visible we can't say for sure, cannot see cloudtop circulation nevermind convection without loops
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2800. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL STORM MINDULLE (T1005)
18:00 PM JST August 23 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mindulle (994 hPa) located at 16.5N 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.5N 106.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 19.5N 104.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 20.5N 102.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
can anyone show me proof that the center is not right under the middle there... outflow is incredible in all quadrants if that indeed is the center and we are borderline hurricane if that is the case... I think the center used to be further out but this is relocating right into the middle of the CDO

I think so too!
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Quoting Cotillion:


There.


Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION


means that forecasters say that is where the center is not the sat program
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2797. IKE
Five years ago today, this one was firing up....giving the 2005 season it's 11th named storm on the 24th...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


There.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2795. smuldy
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning, Danielle miss the last forecast point by about 1 degree and will miss the other by about 2 , talking about denial , I won't say who, but get my drift, enough said, it is plain to see where Danielle center is and it ain't 14.8, its basically at 13.9/14N!
if it's under the center of convection then about 14.2 yes; but the imaging all had it behind most of the convection to the north and east ast night due to easterly sheer, so even if it's rebuilt some solidity to its east the last two hours since the last imaging, itd still be east of what appears to be the center and a shade north, say 14.6-14.8
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can anyone show me proof that the center is not right under the middle there... outflow is incredible in all quadrants if that indeed is the center and we are borderline hurricane if that is the case... I think the center used to be further out but this is relocating right into the middle of the CDO
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the latest track from the NHC should keep it east of Bermuda by at least 200 miles. This one is starting to look like a true fish storm....



Been looking that way since it was 95L
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Good morning, Danielle miss the last forecast point by about 1 degree and will miss the other by about 2 , talking about denial , I won't say who, but get my drift, enough said, it is plain to see where Danielle center is and it ain't 14.8, its basically at 13.9/14N!
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



First Vis ... are you sure the center is not right under the middle of that convection???

Whoa!
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2790. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 230900 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS MINDULLE 1005 (1005) INITIAL TIME 230900 UTC
00HR 16.4N 109.6E 985HPA 25M/S (50 kts)

30KTS 220KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H=

CMA
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2789. smuldy
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



First Vis ... are you sure the center is not right under the middle of that convection???
90% sure ya, as sure as it gets until a hunter flies into it.
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2788. smuldy
Quoting scott39:
Danielle will go S of the next tropical point.
maybe, but it is where the trough goes that really matters since it has already built into 30n, will be interesting to see, an east coast hit south of dc just became near 0% barring some freak occurrence like Danielle strengthening to a point that its outflow supersizes the ridging to its north, looks pretty likely that the models are within reason for the next few days and beyond
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First Vis ... are you sure the center is not right under the middle of that convection???
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2786. scott39
Danielle will go S of the next tropical point.
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2785. smuldy
for east coasters and anyone interested (and no im not suggesting a track) nat geo channel has a special on Frances on right now
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like the latest track from the NHC should keep it east of Bermuda by at least 200 miles. This one is starting to look like a true fish storm....



Let's hope so.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2783. IKE
Looks like the latest track from the NHC should keep it east of Bermuda by at least 200 miles. This one is starting to look like a true fish storm....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Does anyone know why they are only forecasting a 5 mph increase in winds over 12 hours??? this has been intensifying faster then that over the past 12 hours and conditions will improve


Kimberlain's one of the more conservative forecasters. Although, his reasoning is probably shear related which is still undoubtedly affecting Danielle. Slow strengthening is a reasonable forecast, though this is probably a touch on the low side. Especially as Danielle could be 65mph already.

If it's only kept her in check so far, who knows what she'll do given the right opportunity. Looks like, at least for the next three days, shear'll be a bit of a roadblock.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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