95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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3536. hydrus
11:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting will45:


all the old people are in the Carolinas
With the very oldest existing in Florida....Grothar for example is actually older than the coral Florida rests on....Oh...Hi Gro
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21200
3535. wunderkidcayman
6:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
hmm from NW-WNW with its movements I expect this to move more west now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
3534. AllStar17
5:50 PM GMT on August 22, 2010



Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
3533. MiamiHurricanes09
5:32 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Um why are we yelling out new blog?
Lol. *rolls eyes*.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3532. StormFreakyisher
5:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NEW BLOG

Um why are we yelling out new blog?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
3531. Bigguy675
5:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
I have a general question for the Blog. Why does it take so long for the website to load and also getting into the blog itself? I'm on a T-1 line.....and even at that speed my computer just sits here at times doing nothing. Does it have to do with the number of entries that have to be loaded in before the site fully pulls in?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
3529. weatherxtreme
5:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SYNOPSIS AUGUST 22, 2010 ISSUED 8:00 A.M.


Thank you for the update!!
Member Since: June 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 266
3528. CosmicEvents
5:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
School starts tomorrow, doesn't it? The end of summer. Twas always a sad day in the Cosmic household. It will be interesting to see if the "kids" go to school or if they blog on here.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5588
3526. GatorWX
5:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
just so yall know, new blog!!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3021
3525. osuwxguynew
5:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3524. RTLSNK
5:15 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Snake! Doing a little recon on the blog?


Always here reading and learning, more so in the last week after someone mentioned Georgia as a "possible" cane strike target. :)

Macon is 167 miles NW of Savannah so I don't think storm surge will be a problem.
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 20954
3523. MiamiHurricanes09
5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3522. will45
5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting pottery:

'cept me.


i got ya beat tho
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
3521. Portlight
5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
; )
Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 121 Comments: 412
3519. osuwxguynew
5:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Last four GFS model cycles, red is the one just completed.




Thanks for that. Looks like the GFS didn't end up going further west like I thought. Still an interesting setup.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3518. pottery
5:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting will45:


all the old people are in the Carolinas

'cept me.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
3516. MiamiHurricanes09
5:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MississippiWx:
The disturbance to the north and east is weakening, so TD6 should begin to reorganize itself now.
Exactly. Now that the disturbance is dying off it should begin WNW and the circulation advect westward. All it needs know is for the anticyclone over that disturbance to advect SE towards 06L...that should be accomplished in less than 24 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3515. Dakster
5:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Hey Portlight/Presslord - was great being able to hook up with you in Charleston a couple of weeks ago...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
3514. want2lrn
5:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The area of thunderstorm activity is from the tail-end of a front. Some models were developing it the other day, but not, it looks like it wont be a concern.

The wave west of the Antilles does look impressive, however, it probably wont develop in the short term.


Thank you Tropical...is it the high that is over us right now that will keep the GOM system from developing...or wind shear, TUTTS, ULLS? Keep in mind i have almost no idea what i just said! LOL
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
3513. VAbeachhurricanes
5:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The image you posted is 30 minutes older than mine, however, most of the circulation remains exposed with about half/a little less than half under convection.


I know, still it hasnt moved half way under in 30 mins
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
3512. sporteguy03
5:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
3511. HurricaneSwirl
5:10 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

he didnt hes having more time spending with his family more than here for time being...he'll return when he has time


IIRC last time he posted on here someone in his family was ill or something. Yeah, caring for your family and working really does kill off your free time.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
3510. pottery
5:10 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
HEY Gro!!
Please excuse me. I find it hard to keep up, these days.

(uh oh!)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
3509. washingtonian115
5:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Grothar:


I agree, it is the most impressive wave to emerge yet and looks to be a little further South. It has held together well. I would not be surprised if this were to be one we shall be watching with interest in the next week. (Watch the comments coming on this one)
I think it will.Some of the models have been going back and forth on development.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
3508. MiamiHurricanes09
5:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



Link
The image you posted is 30 minutes older than mine, however, most of the circulation remains exposed with about half/a little less than half under convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3507. MississippiWx
5:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
The disturbance to the north and east is weakening, so TD6 should begin to reorganize itself now.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10247
3505. will45
5:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Portlight:
We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arrive in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...


all the old people are in the Carolinas
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
3504. HurricaneSwirl
5:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



Link


Note that image is at 16:15 when Miami said 16:45.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
3503. pottery
5:08 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Portlight:
We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arrive in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...


AACCKKK!!
You NEVER know who is lurkin/skulking/loitering around here.
A man keeps getting into trouble....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
3502. Grothar
5:08 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Hey Snake.
If it wasn't for Grothar, I wudda missed you.

How you do?


Nice. And I don't even get a Hey!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
3501. VAbeachhurricanes
5:08 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.



Not Yet Miami still fully exposed



LLC seems to be weakening
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6494
3499. txjac
5:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Why does it seem the weather456 has abandoned us? Does he come at all anymore?
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2520
3498. washingtonian115
5:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.

Nice banding on the south side.The center should be fully under the convection this evening.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
3497. Grothar
5:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting washingtonian115:
The wave off of africa has held steady so far.People should be more worried about that one than T.D 6.I don't care what the models say,I think it will develope due to favorable upper level conditions,and warm sst(Duh!).


I agree, it is the most impressive wave to emerge yet and looks to be a little further South. It has held together well. I would not be surprised if this were to be one we shall be watching with interest in the next week. (Watch the comments coming on this one)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
3496. pottery
5:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Hey Snake.
If it wasn't for Grothar, I wudda missed you.

How you do?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
3495. AllStar17
5:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
The long-range forecast of TD 6 remains very uncertain.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
3494. Portlight
5:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
We announced this Thursday on the Daily Downpour...but perhaps it bears repeating here: we are well positioned to respond to any needs which may arise in Bermuda...

...an additional bonus to posting this: it puts pottery on notice that we are taking note of his snarky 'age' comments...
Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 121 Comments: 412
3493. washingtonian115
5:04 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6
Nope this will become danielle.just wait.It's going through some issues right now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
3492. MiamiHurricanes09
5:03 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
16:45 UTC, the circulation is halfway under the convection.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3491. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:03 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
For some reason that site (PREDICT) over-detects SAL and makes it look like there is more than what there really is. If you look at it on the tropic2 page you'll notice that there is much less SAL than what the image you posted shows.



Yeah, I've noticed. Just posted that to mainly show how much shear was over the system.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
3490. Grothar
5:03 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting RTLSNK:


At "our" age we are not called stalkers, just harmless with walkers! :)


Yo, Snake! Doing a little recon on the blog?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26137
3489. MiamiHurricanes09
5:02 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah there is some brown coloring up there in the NW corner, however all the blues shooting up into the that NW corner will probably take care of most of it.

SHIPS believes the RH will stay fairly high, although steadily decreasing throughout the run:

700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 77 76 71 72 67 61 62 62 63 60

I agree though that this will have to overcome a few obstacles though, as it is trying to overcome one right now.
Oh yeah, the mid-level environment is plenty moist for development. If it dips below 50 though is when intensification will likely slow down.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3487. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6


Its still going to become Danielle. It may have problems right now, but it will overcome them.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
3486. HurricaneSwirl
5:01 PM GMT on August 22, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
will it looks like TD wont eve make it in to a TD


so far thats 3

so TD 2 TD 5 and now TD 6


Be patient, this thing just became TD6 20 hours ago.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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