95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Twinkster:
I find it funny that last night when the GFS had it going NNW in the short term everyone was criticizing it when the NNW movement is actually the correct motion LOL
LOL, ok, ok, ya' got me. I just didn't understand it with the steering flow but it turns out that the disturbance to the northeast of 06L is influencing its motion.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Joe Bastardi

SUNDAY 10 AM

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND ( WITH THE RECURVE)

One of the "dangers" in this years hurricane forecast was the idea that a storm could hit the coast moving west of north further north than normal. By that I mean storms of the genre if Isabel, and Fran, or the 1933 hurricane or the brave attempt by Felix in 1995. This occurs in years when ridges are prone to build further north than normal during the meat of the hurricane season.

I have been hemming and hawing about what is now td 6 for a while and how in spite of the models turning out, we should not write it off. Truth is, the pattern forecasted day 8-12 is ripe for the US coast to get hit.. I say US coast because one has to watch for activity popping up in the gulf out of this.

But the models have been trending west, most disturbingly the Euro which has major hurricane on day 10 moving west northwest near 30 north and 65 west.

Lets keep in mind that years coming off El Ninos, things like this happen The only year in history a major hurricane struck the Old Coast of Florida from the east.. 1964, ( that was Dora) came off the Nino. Isabel came off the Nino.. Felix came off the nino. And it has to do with the same overall climate response that we caught for the hot summer this year.. post nino years are almost always hot in much of the nation.
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RGB shows an elongated circulation from northeast to southwest moving towards the NNE/NE as noted in the last few satellite images.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3131. bappit
Quoting Twinkster:
I find it funny that last night when the GFS had it going NNW in the short term everyone was criticizing it when the NNW movement is actually the correct motion LOL

Bingo!
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3129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/XX
LOOKS TOO ME LIKE A DECOUPLING IS OCCURING
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I find it funny that last night when the GFS had it going NNW in the short term everyone was criticizing it when the NNW movement is actually the correct motion LOL
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Huh, I don't think naked was in the forecast...at least not mine.

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3126. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:
Definitely a NW to NNW movement:

201008221500 12.7 -34.1 (.5N, .3W) = NNW
201008221200 12.2 -33.9 (.3N, .9W) = WNW
201008220600 11.8 -33 (.6N, .7W) = NW
201008220000 11.2 -32.3 (.3N, .5W) = WNW
201008211800 10.8 -31.8

Overall, that's 1.9 north and 2.3 west.


That just silenced the..."it's moving west" crowd.
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3125. bappit
I like this part of the discussion:

Based on an experimental intensity probability product at NHC...the depression currently has a 1 in 5 chance of reaching major hurricane status at some point over the next five days.

Edit: I should clarify, because that is a lower chance than I would have expected from the talk on the blog last night.
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Quoting sporteguy03:
BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE.
That isn't good.
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From the discussion:

WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3121. bappit
Quoting Vero1:


Yes that is called SMO -- Storm Model Oscillation

Everything sounds more authoritative when you give it a TLA.
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Quoting surfmom:
3058 -Kman, ever eagle eyes!!!! glad I'm not your kid - LOL - you don't even miss the dot on the letter i


Ha Ha !!.
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Definitely a NW to NNW movement:

201008221500 12.7 -34.1 (.5N, .3W) = NNW
201008221200 12.2 -33.9 (.3N, .9W) = WNW
201008220600 11.8 -33 (.6N, .7W) = NW
201008220000 11.2 -32.3 (.3N, .5W) = WNW
201008211800 10.8 -31.8

Overall, that's 1.9 north and 2.3 west.
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BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE.
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Downgrading wind forcast. Just like everything else this summer, this thing may likely not ever see Hurricane Status. Dry Air and Shear
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Stormchaser, do you have any more graphics that associate what we are looking at strength wise. Btw the track forecast that you are speaking of appears to be along the track of Andrew, just a bit more to the north than what he did. However it does lead to problems in the long run for South Florida.

Its been a long time since 1992's hit by andrew and that in itself is worrysome that this is such a hard flowing system.


Well here was the intensity estimate for the 12z run. Im not really jumping onto the bandwagon that this will now affect land, but if the models continue to shift we may have a problem.

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3114. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK (EP092010)
15:00 PM UTC August 22 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Strengthens Into A Storm And Is Named "FRANK"

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Frank (1002 hPa) located at 14.0N 95.3W or 125 NM southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.2N 97.8W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.1N 100.8W - 65 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)
72 HRS: 16.5N 103.5W - 70 knots (SVR Tropical Cyclone - SSHS 1)

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watches
====================================
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Mexico from Puerto Angel westward to Punta Maldonado

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Mexico from Salina Cruz westward to Puerto Angel and from Punta Maldonado westward to Tecpan de Galeana
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3113. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
06L/TD/XX

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The path has shifted at least 50 miles west now on the nhc map.
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000
WTPZ34 KNHC 221449
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANK...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

We have Frank in the E-Pac
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That storm has the classic buzzsaw like look to it this early in the setup of the storm
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RECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE
DATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.

From 0500 AST discussion..no kiding ..I don't feel so bad now..I couldn't discern actual heading either
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Stormchaser, do you have any more graphics that associate what we are looking at strength wise. Btw the track forecast that you are speaking of appears to be along the track of Andrew, just a bit more to the north than what he did. However it does lead to problems in the long run for South Florida.

Its been a long time since 1992's hit by andrew and that in itself is worrysome that this is such a hard flowing system.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 221452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

THE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE
STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE
NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30
KT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.

WITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS
ROUGHLY 310/10. ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG
26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON
HOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN
THE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W
BY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT
RECURVATURE. THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL
...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT
THEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH
DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN
EVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. BASED ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT
SOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.7N 34.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 13.0N 35.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.8N 38.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.7N 40.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.9N 43.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 49.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 56.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It remains a tropical depression.


I think that was the right call. The satellite presentation is marginal and until we see improvement the NHC will not likely upgrade with the limited TS vectors we saw in the ASCAT pass.
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3103. Relix
Yeah its moving NW. So much for west movement =P
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 221450
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 34.1W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

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3101. IKE
Was at....

12.1N....33.4W

Now at....

12.7N and 34.1W

Moved.6N and .7W. Almost a true NW movement.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 22
Location: 12.7°N 34.1°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Good call by the NHC.

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Quoting angiest:


Willing to bet your life on that?



You going to book it?
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Quoting katrinakat5:
kman what about the ull to the north of the high pressure that is steering danielle now this is going to erode the high the deepening trough is just the icing on the cake...i still believe danielle will have ideal conditions to intensify into a major hurricane..


I ran the WV loop and the ULL appears to be retrograding to the WNW just slightly North of due West. It may not have as great an impact on the high as expected.

All of these pieces of the puzzle are evolving. We'll just have to wait and see where they all finish up relative to the system and how strong it is at the time.

Too many variables for me to work with and even the models sometimes struggle as they are essentially trying to move huge bits of data around like pieces on a chess board with a view to determining where they will all be at a certain point in the future.

In many instances mother nature changes one or two bits of that data unexpectedly and then everything else starts to change as well, sometimes with little warning.
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3096. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
decoupling detected on 06l
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Pretty big shift in the models since last night




Uh-oh.........
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It remains a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting surfmom: from a lot of wadefishing in the Northern Gulf it seems to me that warmer and clearer water bring the hungrys in closer .
stillwaiting - if you're still about are the Tarpon running past Siesta Key now? Got a bump the other day -it was a bigBIG fish, not a meanfin one, just wasn't sure... does the 91 degree water keep them further off shore??
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Good morning.
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Still a TD..
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I had some freinds of mine one day say they were going to see this band call Lynard Skinard
we never heard of them before who would name a band that well glad i didnt miss it long story short.
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3086. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.1W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.