95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TcuFrogs:
Other then the ecmwf, are there any other models that develop a low of the SE coast of Texas? I live in Missouri City, but work has me in Corpus most of next week.



06z is showing low pressures in the Gulf, nothing closed though.
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Quoting reedzone:


Thanks for the bashing dude, you aint better yourself. It is NOT following the models, it's not a TD right now. Sorry, not wrong on that.
Agree with you Reedzone, nobody here is doing a great job forecastig not even NHC, most of the little 'swirls" that had formed this year with the exception of Alex do the contrary as forecasted or the models itself.
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83. eye
Wow, you can drive Alaska through that gap, the trough wacks a huge break in the two Highs.
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Other then the ecmwf, are there any other models that develop a low of the SE coast of Texas? I live in Missouri City, but work has me in Corpus most of next week.
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Quoting Vince2005:
Hello, there is a new pre invest in the Atlantic, it is the PGI34L.

It seems that goes to Cape Verde, its current appearance is quite good, although it is still too early to know if will have any possible development, so time will tell, so if I think it's quite interesting to follow.

Greetings to all from Spain.

Hi! Nice to see bloggers from all around.
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Quoting txag91met:
Anyone else see this tail-end charley storm the Euro develops in the NW Gulf next week?


0818 00Z GFS had an inkling of it. Haven't looked at the models since. Don't know as I'd call it a "tail-end charley" storm. You never know...
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Quoting blsealevel:


Link
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I posted this yesterday, still fits the bill:

to all of the model worshipers out there who believe cause its a consensus its gotta be fact, they are not only off on strength but in position and direction of movement. So if you all feel that is consensus to go by its consensus that they are all wrong. Go initialize that in the models...
Great Point! Until we can input every single variable into every model, none of them will ever be right all the time. Even though unlikely, consensus does not mean fact; it generally only lessens randomness.

"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth." - Sherlock Holmes
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello, there is a new pre invest in the Atlantic, it is the PGI34L.

It seems that goes to Cape Verde, its current appearance is quite good, although it is still too early to know if will have any possible development, so time will tell, so if I think it's quite interesting to follow.

Greetings to all from Spain.
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Lets hope that 95L does develop quickly and turns north and becomes a fish storm instead of a sleeper that could cross the Atlantic and cause major headaches down the road.

My nightmare is that with water temps around the GOM and SW Atlantic waters hovering at 90 degrees We could get another Katrina, Camille, or 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that develops with in 400 miles of the coast.

Lets hope the next 2 months are uneventful!
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Quoting txag91met:
Anyone else see this tail-end charley storm the Euro develops in the NW Gulf next week?


Yes. Makes it quite strong compared to what it showed TD5 as. Probably a 999 mb TS.
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NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.

Thanks doc. I agree with the re-curvature too. I just don't see this getting any were near close to the US.
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Storm, since you believe a more westernly track should play off, what do you think are the chances for it to affect the northern islands? I mean low or moderate chance?
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The wave in front of 95L developed a nice blob of convection and is headed towards the favorable conditions, may need to be watched, even though models don't form it. There is also vorticity..
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Back later, gotta go find my car, I mean, mow my grass.
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Hi All, good morning.
CATLWVLoop
95L looks better today.

I just made my donation for the Pakistan Effort to Doctors without Borders thanks to Dr. Masters for reminding us to care.
Heard on radio yesterday 8 million people are affected (without basic essentials: food, potable water) and of those only about 8% had been reached. Maybe it's up to 15% by now, but that's a lot of misery and more to come.
So thanks again for reminding me to give what I can.
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I don't think 95L will come close to effecting any areas besides Bermuda everyone keeps saying the High will block it but all the models say it will turn
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67. SLU




HIRES

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Upper level anticyclone is weak, but beginning to develop from east to west this morning. StormW, this is the first few tell tale signs of the upper level anticyclone building over the system. It should take another 24-48 hours for it to build all the way over the circulation. The dominant low center near 30w and 11n is the real true low level circulation present. Another disturbance exists near 10-12n and 45w.
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Hey Everybody!
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Anyone else see this tail-end charley storm the Euro develops in the NW Gulf next week?
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59. SLU
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
Indeed SLU, indeed


Yep
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Quoting katrinakat5:
im not just looking at models i dont put to much faith in them myself...but it's there in front of you look at the maps the wv loops it shows the first trough very clearly..this is one hell of a trough here..this is the force field that will turn anything away from the east coast may even protect bermuda...we will have to wait and see how fat it digs..
i agree with that, we will have to wait to see: how far south it digs; its actual strength; its positioning; and how fast it moves out, etc...
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Quoting Patrap:
I ready for October.

been a torrid summer.
aint that the truth!
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I ready for October.

been a torrid summer.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting StormW:


What do weaker trades mean?

not sure pardon my ignorance. i think it means better conditions for tropical development and slower motion? cookie for me? or in the dunce corner
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ESL by LSU RTAP Imagery Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Straight from Dr. Masters. The farthest south 95L will go is Bermuda.
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Hey Patrap
you ready for this?
Tx today LA tommorrow thing
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The key for healthy living for land-casters:
1. Models are junk when they show a storm going to sea...except
2. If one outlier model has a land-hitter...it could be RIGHT!..except
3. If one outlier has a fish storm..it's garbage
.
go on
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5458
46. IKE
This was the high seas forecast for 95L...from earlier today....

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010

48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14N37W
1006 MB.
OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
PRES WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO
23N E OF 45W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. WITHIN 240
NM SE QUADRANT SW TO W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
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Quoting StormW:
Before I do go...OUCH!

If it goes ahead and takes it's dive and is back positive for most of September, I'll take it. Could be worse-timed...
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Angel Dance
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting coffeecrusader:
If you read Dr. Masters post, he believes the models are correct. Too much consensus not to be.
I posted this yesterday, still fits the bill:

to all of the model worshipers out there who believe cause its a consensus its gotta be fact, they are not only off on strength but in position and direction of movement. So if you all feel that is consensus to go by its consensus that they are all wrong. Go initialize that in the models...
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Indeed SLU, indeed
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palatable wishcasting..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting StormW:


LINK

What's that off the SE coast in the image?
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Thanks, Doc.
Quoting StormW:


Look for the Bullseye's"

LOOP
Answered previous.
Quoting LSU:
[snip, you're welcome, blogmates]

Do you realize that you make the rest of us tigah fans all look bad every time you post?
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-NAO was forecasted yesterday by the GFS ensembles to head towards positive, however today as StormW pointed out, the models are anywhere from staying negative or going to positive.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.