95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Consolidating to the southwest:



Also getting banding features
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey.I hope 95L misses you,and the Islands completely.It's been 12 years since Puerto Rico took a direct strike from a system.better hope the good luck continues this year.

Did you forget Jeanne 2004?
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Lol...,i fixd it;thoughts anyone
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Quoting 7544:
notice some models are going more south and west for 95l on the last run of the speghitti maybe the others will follow and this could be the trend for the next couple of days .


The latest gfs is just now started. Should be complete in a few hours. Let's see what it has to offer anything different concerning track. Last run still had 95l making a hard turn way before 60
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hey Everybody!
Hey.I hope 95L misses you,and the Islands completely.It's been 12 years since Puerto Rico took a direct strike from a system.better hope the good luck continues this year.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting KanKunKid:


I understand what they are saying, I just don't know why. If it develops slow, it isn't as affected by steering? keeps a low profile and sneaks by? Or, by developing, it is more affected by the steering, or does the steering push it to make it grow?


Stronger systems have a more poleward bias, if its weaker it will naturally go more south.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting 7544:
notice some models are going more south and west for 95l on the last run of the speghitti maybe the others will follow and this could be the trend for the next couple of days .


The latest gfs is just now started. Should be complete in a few hours. Let's see what it has to offer anything different concerning track. Last run still had 95l making a hard turn way before 60
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yes guys the models are shifting west and south
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LBAR = "What the heck, NORTH NORTH!" xD
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125. SLU
On August 21st through the years. The numbers in the brackets indicate the season's activity:

1995 - 7-3-1 (19-11-5)
1996 - 4-3-1 (13-9-6)
1997 - 5-2-0 (8-3-1)
1998 - 3-0-0 (14-10-3)
1999 - 3-1-0 (12-8-5)
2000 - 4-2-1 (15-8-3)
2001 - 3-0-0 (15-9-4)
2002 - 3-0-0 (12-4-2)
2003 - 5-3-0 (16-7-3)
2004 - 5-3-2 (15-9-6)
2005 - 9-4-2 (28-15-7)
2006 - 4-0-0 (10-5-2)
2007 - 5-1-1 (15-6-2)
2008 - 6-2-1 (16-8-5)
2009 - 3-1-1 (9-3-2)
2010 - 3-1-0 (n/a)

Climatology (1966 - 2009) - 3-1-0
Average after August 21st (1995 - 2009) - 10-6-3
Average after August 21st of the two analog years from the sample (1998 & 2005)- 16-10.5-4
CSU forecast - 18-10-5
Analog years post-August 21st average plus observed - 19-11.5-4

FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
OT, but I just want to say:

I [bleeping] [blank][blankity] hate summer [bleep][bleep] hot [bleep][bleep] sweaty [bleep][bleep] mowing [bleep][bleep] mosquitos [bleep] poison ivy [bleep][bleep] air conditioning [bleep][bleep][bleep].


+1
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Hmmmm.com brew anyone;looking for a possible aol forming in the egom
America OnLine forming in an Empowered Group of Ministers?
(sry)
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Quoting atmoaggie:
OT, but I just want to say:

I [bleeping] [blank][blankity] hate summer [bleep][bleep] hot [bleep][bleep] sweaty [bleep][bleep] mowing [bleep][bleep] mosquitos [bleep] poison ivy [bleep][bleep] air conditioning [bleep][bleep][bleep].


Had to come out of lurk to give that post a BIG LOL!!!
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Hmmmm.gom brew anyone;looking for a possible aol forming in the egom
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Quoting atmoaggie:
OT, but I just want to say:

I [bleeping] [blank][blankity] hate summer [bleep][bleep] hot [bleep][bleep] sweaty [bleep][bleep] mowing [bleep][bleep] mosquitos [bleep] poison ivy [bleep][bleep] air conditioning [bleep][bleep][bleep].


lol!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
OT, but I just want to say:

I [bleeping] [blank][blankity] hate summer [bleep][bleep] hot [bleep][bleep] sweaty [bleep][bleep] mowing [bleep][bleep] mosquitos [bleep] poison ivy [bleep][bleep] air conditioning [bleep][bleep][bleep].
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PGI34L is the one that poses a real threat to the United States with ridging in place.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
.."U R Like a Hurricane,, there's calm,in yer eye"....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting Progster:


GFS 06Z ensemble keeps it E of 60.


Sounds also about right especially if it intensifies like the GFS is predicting. Quicker intensification such would trend it out to sea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Good Morning Guys!

Quick Update - August 21 2010 - Invest 95L
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm only saying what the models are showing this run. I've only said like 5 times today that I believe that 95L will eventually trend out to sea. Shifting west is a sign that the storm won't intensify as much as originally predicted and has potential to take a more westward track, similar to Hurricane Bill last year.


GFS 06Z ensemble keeps it E of 60.
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Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
I'm with IKE on this one actually, it will never develop IE wind shear & dry air.


Ike hasn't said that at all.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:


you wish..


I'm only saying what the models are showing this run. I've only said like 5 times today that I believe that 95L will eventually trend out to sea. Shifting west is a sign that the storm won't intensify as much as originally predicted and has potential to take a more westward track, similar to Hurricane Bill last year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting Patrap:
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......


12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





lol LBAR
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Quoting tkeith:
Quoting breeezee:that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5

maybe we need to attatch some skimmers to it...
good plan, maybe we can get them far enough down to pick up that large plume that they are talking about...
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Quoting IKE:
Cape Verde Season Set to Heat Up

Aug 21, 2010 8:14 AM


Now that we're in mid-August we would expect waves in the eastern Atlantic to become more organized as they emerge off the African coast, and this morning we have one significant feature to monitor over the next couple of days. This wave emerged into the Atlantic on Wednesday and has held its own since then. Currently just west of the Cape Verde Islands, this system has a discernible low-level circulation, albeit a broad, elongated circulation -- this will help in the coming days as upper-level conditions are expected to be favorable for development. Model guidance is nearly unanimous in strengthening the system into at least a tropical storm over the next several days, some even making this into a hurricane by the end of the upcoming week. A lot can change between now and then, but conditions are ripe for development and coming away with at least a name seems likely at this point.

The eventual track for this system, assuming it does become a tropical storm (or even hurricane) which would take the name Danielle, is fairly straightforward, or at least appears to be. An upper-level trough set to move into the Northeast this weekend will slowly push into the northern Atlantic by the middle of next week, likely capturing the system before it even makes it to Bermuda. Again, this assumes that the wave which is still fairly unorganized becomes Tropical Storm Danielle. Should this system fail to develop for three or four days, the farther south track would be had and all bets would then be off late next week -- so it may be best to root for a quick development to allow the upper-level trough to do its thing, so to speak.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the only feature of any real interest at this point in relation (at least somewhat) to the seemingly invincible remnants of Tropical Depression Five -- now over Georgia. This cluster of thunderstorms and weak area of low pressure will combine with a developing low on the tail end of a frontal boundary in the far western Atlantic and produce a widespread area of unsettled weather. Tropical development seems unlikely... but it cannot be ruled out. An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the area of concern, and this is not the recipe for significant, if any development. See T.D. 5 in the Gulf of Mexico.. the first time around. Needless to say, given the proximity to land we'll keep a lookout anyhow...

Stay tuned!

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins


Ike so you are rooting for it to get strong too?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5306
Looks like the models are starting to shift west pat.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......


12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting breeezee:that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5

maybe we need to attatch some skimmers to it...
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101. 7544
notice some models are going more south and west for 95l on the last run of the speghitti maybe the others will follow and this could be the trend for the next couple of days .
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.."Wonderin"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting breeezee:
that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
That is just what I was wondering..if it is, that thing just doesn't wanna die does it?

lol
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This may be more wishfull thinking to break the string of 100+ days.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED EASTERLY WAVE AFFECTING OUR AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAN EARLIER RUNS...FAVORING SLOWER
MOVEMENT AND GENERALLY CONFINING IT TO THE GULF AND THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. THE GFS40 WAS ONCE AGAIN MOST BULLISH FOR PRECIP
ACROSS OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH LESS-SO THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP
LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR NOW...BUT THE RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS ARE NOT ENCOURAGING FOR MUCH-NEEDED PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. ONE CONSIDERATION IS THAT SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...COULD FAVOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THESE MODEL
TRENDS ARE WORTH MONITORING CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Quoting breeezee:
that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5


sort of a strange way; yea
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Quoting want2lrn:
Hello All, before i continue please dont beat me....Just trying to learn this stuff. Live in Corpus Christi and want to know if i am reading models right. ECMF shows something in our neighborhood next weekend, but as i read it (hopefully right)it is a TS and nothing more, we could use the rain, but THATS ALL! Am i reading this correct? The old wives tale around here is we are in pretty good shape once the "C" storm has passed. Additional thoughts on that would be appreciated. Thank You!


In the tropics,, dont go by any model after 72hrs if its not developed yet.
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::Feeling the overwhelming urge to add the word "FISH" to my board filter. Sigh::
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Quoting breeezee:
that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5
That is just what I was wondering..if it is, that thing just doesn't wanna die does it?
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Areas of Interest...



Tropical Depression Eight-E

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Click to enlarge and extend



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that low crossing north fl into the gom,could that be xxtd5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello All, before i continue please dont beat me....Just trying to learn this stuff. Live in Corpus Christi and want to know if i am reading models right. ECMF shows something in our neighborhood next weekend, but as i read it (hopefully right)it is a TS and nothing more, we could use the rain, but THATS ALL! Am i reading this correct? The old wives tale around here is we are in pretty good shape once the "C" storm has passed. Additional thoughts on that would be appreciated. Thank You!
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi All, good morning.
CATLWVLoop
95L looks better today.

I just made my donation for the Pakistan Effort to Doctors without Borders thanks to Dr. Masters for reminding us to care.
Heard on radio yesterday 8 million people are affected (without basic essentials: food, potable water) and of those only about 8% had been reached. Maybe it's up to 15% by now, but that's a lot of misery and more to come.
So thanks again for reminding me to give what I can.


Its a country with 170 million people that's 50% bigger than Texas. Its added 38 million people to its population in the last 12 years. Many live in the historical floodplains of the Indus and its tributaries....an accident that has merely been waiting to happen. Humanitarian aid is essential at this point, but the damage to its infrastructure is enormous and will take years to reckon with, especially if its population growth rate persists.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
88. IKE
Cape Verde Season Set to Heat Up

Aug 21, 2010 8:14 AM


Now that we're in mid-August we would expect waves in the eastern Atlantic to become more organized as they emerge off the African coast, and this morning we have one significant feature to monitor over the next couple of days. This wave emerged into the Atlantic on Wednesday and has held its own since then. Currently just west of the Cape Verde Islands, this system has a discernible low-level circulation, albeit a broad, elongated circulation -- this will help in the coming days as upper-level conditions are expected to be favorable for development. Model guidance is nearly unanimous in strengthening the system into at least a tropical storm over the next several days, some even making this into a hurricane by the end of the upcoming week. A lot can change between now and then, but conditions are ripe for development and coming away with at least a name seems likely at this point.

The eventual track for this system, assuming it does become a tropical storm (or even hurricane) which would take the name Danielle, is fairly straightforward, or at least appears to be. An upper-level trough set to move into the Northeast this weekend will slowly push into the northern Atlantic by the middle of next week, likely capturing the system before it even makes it to Bermuda. Again, this assumes that the wave which is still fairly unorganized becomes Tropical Storm Danielle. Should this system fail to develop for three or four days, the farther south track would be had and all bets would then be off late next week -- so it may be best to root for a quick development to allow the upper-level trough to do its thing, so to speak.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, the only feature of any real interest at this point in relation (at least somewhat) to the seemingly invincible remnants of Tropical Depression Five -- now over Georgia. This cluster of thunderstorms and weak area of low pressure will combine with a developing low on the tail end of a frontal boundary in the far western Atlantic and produce a widespread area of unsettled weather. Tropical development seems unlikely... but it cannot be ruled out. An upper-level trough is forecast to move over the area of concern, and this is not the recipe for significant, if any development. See T.D. 5 in the Gulf of Mexico.. the first time around. Needless to say, given the proximity to land we'll keep a lookout anyhow...

Stay tuned!

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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