95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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hello kman
afternoon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Now strong ridging to the north which is typical across the subtropical Atlantic 25-35°N or so is like a strong wind (actually pressure) that is exerted on my golf ball towards the south. The stronger the ridge, the stronger the force.

The Beta effect and the ridging work against each other and determine the meridional (north/south) component of movement in a storm.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Storm- are you saying the wave in the atlantic weve been talking so much about is moving more west?
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Quoting kmanislander:


My Thursday call for TD by tonight might not be far off the mark after all :-)


Very possible. We'll know soon enough!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
so whats the story with 95L?

been out of the loop for a day?

Is it gaining any latitude?



95L is ramping up and fast it has got in march better looking from 8hrs a go
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MATCH GAME SET
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Hurricanes101:
so whats the story with 95L?

been out of the loop for a day?

Is it gaining any latitude?


Definitely gaining some attitude.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
Quoting StormW:


I think Avila took em home with him.
LMAO! I agree that it should go red though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


At those coordinates...which way are the clouds moving?
Westerly...so, a westerly steering flow I suppose.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
so whats the story with 95L?

been out of the loop for a day?

Is it gaining any latitude?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7393
Quoting StormW:


I agree kman...I'm gonna need a bigger coffee pot.



hows this


Link
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273. 7544
Quoting StormW:


At those coordinates...which way are the clouds moving?



west correct strom w and more west lol
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NHC probably searching for that red crayon now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's funny,but true.I belive to this very day that 92L was a depression.


It may or may not have. It wouldve been a depression at most, so it isn't a significant effect to the season's numbers.
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Good Afternoon Everyone!

Think of the Beta Effect like a tendency to slice the ball in golf.

Imagine I'm teeing up my golf ball (round tropical storm) on the West Coast of Africa and my hole is due west in the Carribean.

Because the earth's angular velocity is higher to the south than it is to the north (because the distance around the earth at higher latitudes decrease but we all rotate one whole time in a day), my golf ball/storm wants to spin/slice clockwise to the the northwest.

Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/95L
MARK
11.47N/31.73W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The tropical wave?


Yep.
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Quoting StormW:


I agree kman...I'm gonna need a bigger coffee pot.


My Thursday call for TD by tonight might not be far off the mark after all :-)
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
classic one there storm..funny stuff
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Quoting StormW:


NHC.
That's funny,but true.I belive to this very day that 92L was a depression.
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Quoting StormW:
Hey MH09,
Can you do the same with this one as your post 233?

Oh...ya'll look at the loop, and out front of 95L...you'll understand why a left shift of the models. (40W and 45W)
LOOP
The tropical wave?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


NHC.


LOL !!

Ramping up quickly though.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
the olny one oh needs to watch is 95L is Bermuda
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Quoting JRRP:

are you using inverse psychology?
I wonder if he is.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SILENCE



plzs dont Quote him
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
HOW IS THE FISH STORM DOING.

SILENCE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
This will not take 48 hrs to get to TD status unless something drastic happens to curtail it IMO.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
253. JRRP
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
HOW IS THE FISH STORM DOING.


are you using inverse psychology?
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Mmmm is that ridging I see taking shape on the euro after when the storm is well long gone,and dissapated.?
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251. JRRP
Quoting kmanislander:


The previous runs are too far to the right given where the system is now. The new initialization further W and S will almost certainly bring it further West. As it is the runs are not far from the Leeward Islands.

yea
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Quoting Tazmanian:
mode runs has been showing some kind of a hit for Bermuda from 95L and its going to be a hard it


So, the ants were right !!!
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This satellite loop depicts quite well the circulation of 95L, and shows that 95L has pretty good spin overall. Based on that loop I would put the circulation at 11N 32W (approximately).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting tkeith:
that's a common problem for people not from there...
I'll have you to know ever one uv my teeth is my vury oln. I paid good cash dollars fer them when thy had em in stock fer halleyween over to the Pigly Wiggly! D@mnit!!
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mode runs has been showing some kind of a hit for Bermuda from 95L and its going to be a hard it
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Considering where the models are NOW, that's quite a big shift to the Left.


The previous runs are too far to the right given where the system is now. The new initialization further W and S will almost certainly bring it further West. As it is the runs are not far from the Leeward Islands.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15736
Quoting IKE:


Then just about all of them have blown it....


well GFS is developing it way to early
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Quoting NOLALawyer:


I don't know about that. The models have been off quite a bit. Here is my little take on things. The two storms that have had the most personal impact on me, Andrew and Katrina, did things they weren't predicted to do by models and forecasts. So, until a storm is 100% not coming my way, I don't trust either. We have a saying down here, "Don't like the weather? Give it an hour and it will change." The weather changes, and changes frequently. So while X is "supposed" to happen, does not mean that Y won't happen instead.



I am saying so far this year. Didn't they implement something this year that was suppose to help predict the storms more accurately? I thought I read that some place.
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242. IKE
Quoting will45:
thinking GFS has blowed thisone big time


Then just about all of them have blown it....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting kmanislander:


Yep. The next set will brush the NE islands.
Likely that they will.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
thinking GFS has blowed thisone big time
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yea but storm "wishcasting" is more like a forecast...lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ACE is going to go up up up according to the 12z GFS with Danielle just meandering around...Shows her as a MH

And it also shows her out to sea.Yay.
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Quoting StormW:


When.


Thanks.
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236. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:

What prog and storm said are true as well. There are 2 different things at play for this invest:
1. Upper level winds would affect a stronger system more, effectively drawing it north as a trough moves by
2. Beta effect drawing a larger system poleward, exclusive of steering winds.


95L does have some room for beta effect to provide latitude gain. More so in this system than others.

Add a touch of coriolis sauce.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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