95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's up with the 00z ECMWF? It has it recurving out to sea before reaching 50W. I just do not see that happening.


It almost seems that it drifts just far enough north that when ridging builds back in to its west it can't head that way and it slowly drifts north until it gets far enough north to get caught in the westerlies.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
335. IKE
Quoting StormW:
I hear ya IKE, but I just don't see it right now.


But you think it will recurve?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


No ma'am!


How about north east Caribbean islands/PR?
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Alright Storm, this is what I took from your lesson:

95L will likely not begin to start moving with a more northerly component until it reaches 40W-45W. Why? Look at satellite loop of the North Atlantic (link below), note how the clouds around that area are moving westward indicative of a westerly steering flow. Now, look further west, see how the clouds begin moving with a more northerly component? Well, that's when 95L will likely begin to move WNW. Based on this, the northern Lesser Antilles still very much so have to watch 95L. They are by no means 'safe' from this. Although I do believe that 95L will recurve, it will likely not recurve as far east as the models depict, but instead further west as to put Bermuda in danger.

*North Atlantic - Visible Loop
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting CybrTeddy:
3 years ago today, the 1st Category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin in 15 years. 905 mb also made him tied for the 7th most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin with Camille and Mitch.
Dean!
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Quoting Hhunter:


without the just kidding we could have seen a major evacuation of SE LA
the causeway commission just called and want to know when contra flow starts...
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327. JRRP
NGP develops the wave behind
Link
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Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS has just about dropped it...Link


Develops a impressive CV system behind it.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like someones going to pull out the red crayon it looks, this is getting much more impressive.




its looks like a TD
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324. IKE
NOGAPS has just about dropped it...Link

NOGAPS has another system behind 95L and it's headed out-to-sea.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


The recurve is probably coming, but later than what the models show. I think I know what some of the confusion with the models is.


There is some of that going on for sure...

But also if people look at models, like this morning's GFS for instance, 95L remains weak and moves pretty much due west for the next 3 days. The forwards speed slows on Tuesday as the ridging weakens and comes to a crawl later in the day before drifting north.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
3 years ago today, the 1st Category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin in 15 years. 905 mb also made him tied for the 7th most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin with Camille and Mitch.
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Quoting Hhunter:


without the just kidding we could have seen a major evacuation of SE LA


In Cayman when the land crabs start heading inland and try getting into your house it's a sure sign of tropical trouble coming.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
319. IKE
NOGAPS has it near 14N and about 36W in 48 hours...Link

Near the exact same coordinates that the NHC thinks it will be at in 48 hours..."48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 14N37W
1006 MB."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like someones going to pull out the red crayon it looks, this is getting much more impressive.



Indeed, impressive right now. Upper level anticyclone continues to develop, however located too far to the ENE to help in rapid development. Circulation remains broad and open on the eastern side. This will need to build convection with the band on the SE quad and wrap into the center before any more rapid development can be expected. Bermuda is not the only one that needs to watch this, while the 12z GFS was out to sea with this system again, it shows us how delicate of a pattern we are in right now, with the eastern US high building eastward just a little too late to close up the weakness and keeping future Danielle to the southwest. I think StormW is right on a more westward trend, and Taz, I think everyone needs to watch this system until it is a major hurricane 500 miles east of Bermuda heading ENE.
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Quoting StormW:


Have a safe trip, kman!


Thanks, catch you later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
315. 7544
this may get all the way to bahamas before recurving if it does recurve
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Quoting kmanislander:


Has it been dry where you are ?. If so they could be looking for water. If it is not dry and you are near the coast head for higher ground ( just kidding ).


without the just kidding we could have seen a major evacuation of SE LA
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Quoting kmanislander:


Has it been dry where you are ?. If so they could be looking for water. If it is not dry and you are near the coast head for higher ground ( just kidding ).
Not dry, 3 inches of standing water in the far corners of the backyard!
Quoting StormW:


Proally turnin on the dishwasher?

Cantore isn't there...is he?
Nope, no Cant ore.
Dishwasher? Yep. That interesting day they are about the have...
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What's up with the 00z ECMWF? It has it recurving out to sea before reaching 50W. I just do not see that happening.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Well I have a flight to catch so I'm out of here. Won't be back on until later tonight.

Keep a real close eye on 95L until I return LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
well that is a good thing!
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307. JRRP
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS keeps it weak at 96 hours...near 19N and 52W...Link

yeah like an open wave
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306. IKE
NOGAPS keeps it weak at 96 hours...near 19N and 52W...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
12z surface analysis shows a closed isobar with 95L. The monsoonal trough is still with her, lol.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


Yes ma'am!

Hoe much more weest? Gom you think?
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I think a "Bill" or "Florence" track is possible. The TW in front of 95L is sort of keeping the westward trend for now. I agree, and you can see this on the satellite, the storm should start moving WNW when it gets to 45-50W.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
(While I'd agree that it sounds like bull, seriously, not making it up)

I hope it means nothing at all, but now my ants have moved into the dishwasher...(albeit, they are about to have a very interesting day)

When I say move in, I don't mean that they are looking for food. They bring the whole [bleep] colony. And these guys are weird. They have moved into cars, the dishwasher, under trash can lids, the mailbox, others. They find a place to inhabit when the yard is wet rather build a mound. Never seen a mound here. And nothing keeps them down. Overly concentrated "season-long" control ant poison reduces their numbers for a week, then they fully come back.

Almost would rather fire ants...


Has it been dry where you are ?. If so they could be looking for water. If it is not dry and you are near the coast head for higher ground ( just kidding ).
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting Tazmanian:



95L is ramping up and fast it has got in march better looking from 8hrs a go
Yep.The chances should be upgraded by next advisory.
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Quoting StormW:


Where are you located?
SE LA, 40 miles N of NOLA. You know these ants and what actually kills them?
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ASCAT from earlier reveals a pretty decently defined circulation.

(Click image for a larger view)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Hurricanes101:
so whats the story with 95L?

been out of the loop for a day?

Is it gaining any latitude?


Nope, but people and models assume it's going out to sea
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(While I'd agree that it sounds like bull, seriously, not making it up)

I hope it means nothing at all, but now my ants have moved into the dishwasher...(albeit, they are about to have a very interesting day)

When I say move in, I don't mean that they are looking for food. They bring the whole [bleep] colony. And these guys are weird. They have moved into cars, the dishwasher, under trash can lids, the mailbox, others. They find a place to inhabit when the yard is wet, rather than build a mound. Never seen a mound here. And nothing keeps them down. Overly concentrated "season-long" control ant poison reduces their numbers for a week, then they fully come back.

Almost would rather fire ants...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello kman
afternoon


Afternoon to you too. Looks like a game change out there now. Convection about 75% wrapped around the surface low and will probably close the circle in another 3 hours or so. Once that happens and the dry air mixes out we could see an interesting evening.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Looks like someones going to pull out the red crayon it looks, this is getting much more impressive.

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290. JRRP
12z NGP

17n 44w 72hrs
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StormW, you are still not sold on the recurving of this system?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7367
Quoting osuwxguynew:
Now strong ridging to the north which is typical across the subtropical Atlantic 25-35°N or so is like a strong wind (actually pressure) that is exerted on my golf ball towards the south. The stronger the ridge, the stronger the force ...working the correct my slice :)

The Beta effect and the ridging work against each other and determine the meridional (north/south) component of movement in a storm.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
hello kman
afternoon
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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