95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
NHC says WNW. I think I'll go with the NHC. Now we have a few knocking them for there forecast movement.


Including storm. This is clearly moving W
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Why do you want hit by a Cane in PR?
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384. JRRP

look at GFS
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383. IKE
NHC says WNW. I think I'll go with the NHC. Now we have a few knocking them for there forecast movement.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting JRRP:
60% and do not have a floater




too far
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i been saying that for a few days now
Yep and if 95 does not fully detach from the ITCZ as forecast, i.e move more WNW, themodels are wrong and all bets are off...not westcasting, just sayin'.....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Although wayyyyyy left of the consensus here's my forecast track.



I like that track hehe...
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looks like we have a good old races going on here


oh will make it too TD 1st


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211730
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



from %30 too %60



the other 95L went from 0% too %60 back too 0%
LMAO, it's a trend!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
377. JRRP
60% and do not have a floater
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Ocean Spinner. Yawn. Just something to look at - good for us though.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is that our basin?.I have a hard time reading those maps.
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO...WNW
Lol, ummm, where is that WNW? I'm seeing westward motion not WNW...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


LMAO...WNW


You can always count on the NHC to screw something up in the TWO.
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO...WNW


They are funny, aren't they?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting CybrTeddy:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



from %30 too %60



the other 95L went from 0% too %60 back too 0%
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Set, match, Go
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Although wayyyyyy left of the consensus here's my forecast track.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting kmanislander:


In Cayman when the land crabs start heading inland and try getting into your house it's a sure sign of tropical trouble coming.
being that they are more directly tied to the ocean I could buy that..but ants...lol
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367. JRRP
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365. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I like how the blog is quite now, seems school started across most of the country.

lol
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364. Halyn
Quoting Patrap:
.."U R Like a Hurricane,, there's calm,in yer eye"....



Catching up here, ya'll .. and .. Pat .. what a romantic thought! .. lol
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363. IKE
AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


So much for the NHC buying a west track.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
60%!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Red alert! 60%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I like how the blog is quite now, seems school started across most of the country.




other then the weekends
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I like how the blog is quite now, seems school started across most of the country.
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Quoting osuwxguynew:


There is some of that going on for sure...

But also if people look at models, like this morning's GFS for instance, 95L remains weak and moves pretty much due west for the next 3 days. The forwards speed slows on Tuesday as the ridging weakens and comes to a crawl later in the day before drifting north.


it doesn't look like it will stay week like that gfs predicted on the latest visible satelite imigery you can see the circulation cleary becoming tighter and more organized.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Spiral banding becoming very noticeable.




this thing is taking off
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Spiral banding becoming very noticeable.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


'twas my third year on here. I am still amazed by Dean, I learned so much from him, I think we all did. I just wish it was a fish storm instead of a Category 5 landfall.
I learned alot from Dean to.It is the only cape verde storm that had formed in the vinticy where 95L currently is located,that did not recurve.Which is pretty rare.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Alright Storm, this is what I took from your lesson:

95L will likely not begin to start moving with a more northerly component until it reaches 40%u02DAW-45%u02DAW. Why? Look at satellite loop of the North Atlantic (link below), note how the clouds around that area are moving westward indicative of a westerly steering flow. Now, look further west, see how the clouds begin moving with a more northerly component? Well, that's when 95L will likely begin to move WNW. Based on this, the northern Lesser Antilles still very much so have to watch 95L. They are by no means 'safe' from this. Although I do believe that 95L will recurve, it will likely not recurve as far east as the models depict, but instead further west as to put Bermuda in danger.

*North Atlantic - Visible Loop



i been saying that for a few days now
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting IKE:
Latest 12Z CMC keeps it weak for awhile now...develops another system behind 95L and appears to head it to the fishes too...


Does a Fujiwhara thing with a wave to the north. I don't see that happening.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a second storm developing behind this one, now that the CMC and NOGAPS show that.
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Quoting IKE:
Latest 12Z CMC keeps it weak for awhile now...develops another system behind 95L and appears to head it to the fishes too...


The second system is probably the same weak system the GFS develops, just it has 95L pretty strong and the second one pretty weak.
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95L is getting better organized. I think that if this trend continues then this Storm will be gaining latitude IMO.
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StormW,
Again, new poster here and as the person almost everyone seems to go to for correct information, would you say that GFS has a cold bias and tends to make trofs much stronger than they usually are? Also, what are the chances of the trof being even weaker than you and others think and how would that affect 95L in reference to a COTUS landfall?
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346. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Right now, I do...ya see, if you look close at this DVORAK loop, look at the more milky clouds near 15-20N, 40W...(Mid to low cloud deck), and which way they are going. Look how a little further west, that deck is pushing the current weakness out.

Then, look at 17-12N, 45W...see how the feature is moving? 95L right now is going to have to get at least to a strong mid level before not following those features.

DVORAK


The most important thing from your outlook is you think it will recurve.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The circulation is definitely becoming more vigorous. Still elongated, there is still some easterly shear, and the convection isn't well organized but the TPW is impressive nontheless..

Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291
Quoting washingtonian115:
Dean!


'twas my third year on here. I am still amazed by Dean, I learned so much from him, I think we all did. I just wish it was a fish storm instead of a Category 5 landfall.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Develops a impressive CV system behind it.
yeah the euro also developes the wave behind it.And by then it looks like ridging will build back in.But that's just to far out.
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Quoting StormW:


Take a look at your post 233, look NE of 95L...looks like another circulation...I think the models may have that in the solution along with 95L.
Hmmm, I didn't think of that but it sure makes sense.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting IKE:


But you think it will recurve?


It will recurve
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31608
Quoting Tazmanian:



its looks like a TD
I dunno about that yet...but is looking better.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What's up with the 00z ECMWF? It has it recurving out to sea before reaching 50W. I just do not see that happening.


It almost seems that it drifts just far enough north that when ridging builds back in to its west it can't head that way and it slowly drifts north until it gets far enough north to get caught in the westerlies.
Member Since: June 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 291

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.