95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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95L looks to be moving due west to me at least for now anyway
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Hard not to get excited about 95l right now. Convection is bursting on the center and circulation has tightened up significantly over the past 12hours. A "TD" by tomorrow probably, though whether the NHC will classify it as such so far away from land is up in the air.
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First Big One forming?
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Quoting StormW:


What is WNW as far as degrees motion on a compass?


I'm not entirely sure what you mean, degrees motion as in headings? Then the mean heading for WNW is 292.5, although it can start as early as 286.88. While W has a mean heading of 270. So a 22.5 degree difference. Each compass point is 11.25 degrees.
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Quoting StormW:


Lat and Long, please?


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
two different forcasters
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Quoting robert88:
At least we have something decent to track for a change. This season has been quite boring so far. Slowest start since the 97/98 season. JB must be sniffing a lot of glue saying the US is in a high risk situation for landfalls.
I'am waiting for the "I" storm of the season to see what that turns out to be as everyone thinks it will be the real attention of the season.Just gotta move all these other names out of the way first.And thankgod they've been week storms.Nothing to serious to cause probloms.With the exception of Alex.
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426. Vero1


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KHRM Track

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But wont those patterns change or move more to the west prior to 95's arrival?


Quoting StormW:


Right now, I do...ya see, if you look close at this DVORAK loop, look at the more milky clouds near 15-20N, 40W...(Mid to low cloud deck), and which way they are going. Look how a little further west, that deck is pushing the current weakness out.

Then, look at 17-12N, 45W...see how the feature is moving? 95L right now is going to have to get at least to a strong mid level before not following those features.

DVORAK
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Quoting Vero1:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

LOL, oh the disagreements! I agree with the TWD then.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
416.

The TWD is often different than the TWO is usually based on the last TWO.
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.
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO...WNW


You're a respectable blogger, why knock the NHC over two compass points, West by north and WNW?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
3 years ago today, the 1st Category 5 landfall in the Atlantic basin in 15 years. 905 mb also made him tied for the 7th most intense hurricane in the Atlantic basin with Camille and Mitch.
Here is something interesting that JRRP posted. If you speed this model up and look closely, you can see what appears to be persistent low pressure in the N.E.Gulf, and a tropical storm hitting S.E.Florida at the end of the run...Link..... Also notice how quickly high pressure builds in and how flat(east-west) the trough over the Atlantic is...Could mean trouble later on.
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416. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010


BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

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Quoting nola70119:
Up to 60% I see.......the trough split in the GOM next week sounds like it might be interesting. Bears watching.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really? Looks pretty organized to me. Ok, that's my last disagreement with the NHC. Lol.

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.




i follow the two lol
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storm..what are the chances this could hit new england?
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Quoting IKE:
AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


So much for the NHC buying a west track.


All that matters is where it goes, not where anyone "buys" it going.
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Really? Looks pretty organized to me. Ok, that's my last disagreement with the NHC. Lol.

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

Nice banding.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
nhc says WNW because they follow the GFS..
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by the way dos any one no where 93L ended up going?
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At least we have something decent to track for a change. This season has been quite boring so far. Slowest start since the 97/98 season. JB must be sniffing a lot of glue saying the US is in a high risk situation for landfalls.
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Quoting StormW:
Okay...to make it clear, put on the LAT and Long, zoom in, and show me WNW

LOOP


Is that a trough in the W ATL?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, it ain't there!



e mail the nhc
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Quoting StormW:
Okay...to make it clear, put on the LAT and Long, zoom in, and show me WNW

LOOP
Lol, it ain't there!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Up to 60% I see.......the trough split in the GOM next week sounds like it might be interesting. Bears watching.
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Quoting StormW:
Okay...to make it clear, put on the LAT and Long, zoom in, and show me WNW

LOOP



some one sould e mail the nhc
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Including storm. This is clearly moving W


What the NHC probably means is that it's average forecast movement might be WNW during the next 48 hours! - Sure, the current short term is definitely WEST!!
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Quoting JRRP:

look at GFS
Heh, The only one that initialized correctly has the furthest south track before it shoots it northward...LBAR.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Although wayyyyyy left of the consensus here's my forecast track.



that's hugo's track
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Quoting StormW:


What else do you notice?


Good Afternoon Storm. Only have popped in rarely this season so far. Of course I've been lurking at times... :-) Glad to see you and other knowledgeable folks here carrying the load!

The center of circulation (in the broadest sense of the phrase) is pretty far south in the TPW. Looks like 12 or 13 North to me.
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Quoting JRRP:

look at GFS


that map right there is proof that the models have had issues with initialization from the start
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


I like that track hehe...


I guarantee if it took that track, you wouldn't like it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417
I think someone from the nhc was secretly reading the blog.Lol.
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Ok, someone tell me where the WNW movement is?

Central Atlantic - Visible Loop
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting IKE:
NHC says WNW. I think I'll go with the NHC. Now we have a few knocking them for there forecast movement.


I think the NHC's right.
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Quoting IKE:
NHC says WNW. I think I'll go with the NHC. Now we have a few knocking them for there forecast movement.


Including storm. This is clearly moving W
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31417

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.