95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Pretty slim based on everything at the moment.

Once this reaches 50W-55W, I should have a very good idea of what's going to happen.
thank you very much
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What's off the SE coast?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
I'm eager to see the 18z ATCF center fix.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting CybrTeddy:


00z ECMWF is showing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf, Erin like.


That has my interest, I am in Corpus Christi
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Pressure reading closest to the center of 95L reading 1011 mb.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting KoritheMan:


Where do you live?


coastal Halifax, NS
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Quoting weathermancer:


a la Bill 2009.
Thats was a near miss for us.


Where do you live?
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Quoting Vero1:




ok that is truly comical, look at the ridge at 48 hours and then look at it at 72 hours

you mean to tell me its just going to shrivel up in a 24 hour period? Cuz that is what that forecast is saying it will do.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, the further west it moves, the more it puts Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada in play.


a la Bill 2009.
Thats was a near miss for us.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
Link

Good link of the current visible satellite imagery of 95L.


nice link. thanks !!!
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Quoting StormW:


Their gorgeous!
Agreed. Very beautiful.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Quoting breald:


hurricane Maryland...LOL
Sorry I was thinking about the state.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, the further west it moves, the more it puts Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada in play.


I would agree Bermuda needs to keep an eye on this storm.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Has it been dry where you are ?. If so they could be looking for water. If it is not dry and you are near the coast head for higher ground ( just kidding ).
LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Been meaning to ask you, what type of dogs are those?


Hi Storm, they are called Great Pyrenees. Awesome dogs. At least I think so.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


00z ECMWF is showing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf, Erin like.


Brings it into TX/LA too. My state (Louisiana) has bore the brunt of three landfalls so far this year: Bonnie, TD5, and ex-TD5. Bring on the next one, why don't ya? lol

But yeah, we should look further west for development until 95L safely pulls away. Because nothing aside from 95L going to develop in the eastern Atlantic in the next four days or so at least. Count on it.
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StormW i have been saying exactly what you have been saying since yesterday about the track of 95L. all the clouds in front of the system and other areas are moving west . in some places south of west. it looks like the ridge is strenghening dipping south and west. at this point if the system does not intensify before getting to 45 W then it will become very disconcerting for the lesser antilles. the weaker the system the more the chances of missing the first trough, which i believe is the one that will cause to miss the islands. the next 72 hrs will be very crucial
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Quoting StormW:


That's my point, a 22.5 degree difference in motion. That's about, if my math is correct, a 540 mile difference in track in 24 hours.


Yeah, but that would really only be a big deal if someone far away extrapolates the current motion by NHC and thinks they are in the clear/are going to get hit based on just that. The storm or NHC will change motion often, the NHC won't (hopefully lol) just say WNW the whole time as 95L is recurving etc.

Hey do you have that mile per each degree longitude for every latitude line list?
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Quoting breald:
Why all the emphasis on the west movement? Isn't it suppose to move west before it turns north?


Well, the further west it moves, the more it puts Bermuda, and potentially Atlantic Canada in play.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe a track like hurricane Maryland is possible?.I think yes.


hurricane Maryland...LOL
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Eastern Atlantic likely to be temporarily shut down from development once 95L becomes a mature tropical cyclone.

Should open back up in about four to five days, though.


00z ECMWF is showing a tropical cyclone in the Gulf, Erin like.
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Quoting robert88:
At least we have something decent to track for a change. This season has been quite boring so far. Slowest start since the 97/98 season. JB must be sniffing a lot of glue saying the US is in a high risk situation for landfalls.


2009 was slower and we've already had Alex.
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Quoting StormW:


Not really knocking em. I just think it's funny, that they rarely put down the TRUE motion, instead of trying to verify the computer models.

+5
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Why all the emphasis on the west movement? Isn't it suppose to move west before it turns north?
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Maybe a track like hurricane Maryland is possible?.I think yes.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Meanwhile, back at the African ranch, PGI34L (eventual Earl, IMNSHO) is getting ready to make his debut:

Click for larger size


Eastern Atlantic likely to be temporarily shut down from development once 95L becomes a mature tropical cyclone.

Should open back up in about four to five days, though.
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Meanwhile, back at the African ranch, PGI34L (eventual Earl, IMNSH, and--for now--a spitting image of PGI33L) is getting ready to make his debut:

Click for larger size
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really? Looks pretty organized to me. Ok, that's my last disagreement with the NHC. Lol.

A 1009 MB ELONGATED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 11N31W IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH S OF
15N BETWEEN 20W-38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 20W-40W. WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY UNORGANIZED...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

Nice banding.



Just playing devil's advocate here, but I think that the NHC means that the deepest convection isn't really near the center. There's a fair amount of it fairly far east of the center. (edit meant to say west)

Totally agree that the banding structure is improving though.
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Link

Good link of the current visible satellite imagery of 95L.
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Quoting robj144:


Is that appropriate for this forum? :)


a lot more appropriate than most of your i have seen on here
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452. JRRP
see you later
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I will be feeling the trof,because our highs in the beginning of the week will be in it's low 80's with thunderstorms.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Like I said a couple of days ago...path maybe like Hurricane Faith



Possible UK hit? Interesting...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Bingo. Pretty good track there, only that the recurvature takes place a little too far west.


Yup
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting floridastorm:
First Big One forming?


Looks likely.
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Quoting will45:
thinking GFS has blowed thisone big time


Is that appropriate for this forum? :)
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I believe this should be 70% at the next TWO. lets see how the next 2 and a half hours treat to system...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Like I said a couple of days ago...path maybe like Hurricane Faith

Bingo. Pretty good track there, only that the recurvature takes place a little too far west.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21098
Like I said a couple of days ago...path maybe like Hurricane Faith

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31862
Quoting FFtrombi:
Hard not to get excited about 95l right now. Convection is bursting on the center and circulation has tightened up significantly over the past 12hours. A "TD" by tomorrow probably, though whether the NHC will classify it as such so far away from land is up in the air.
Based on climotolgy I say they will probally classify it.
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Hey storm, using just reading but im curious. Im up here in canada, and if this keeps tracking west is a track similar to Hurricane bill likely? That thing just missed us here last year in nova scotia. Some of the earlier runs had invest 95l moving just east/landfall near Newfoundland, i know you can't give a good answer yet because its so far out, but i keep seeing it move more west.
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Quoting StormW:


Not really knocking em. I just think it's funny, that they rarely put down the TRUE motion, instead of trying to verify the computer models.


I think sometimes they over analyze things. Occam's razor anyone? But this time it was just a small difference.
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Quoting StormW:


The subtropical ridge nosing SW.


Yeah. But the GFS shows strong and even strengthening ridging over the next couple days. A rapid west or even slighly south of west path is what I would forecast for the next 2-3 days. After that a slowdown in forward speed with a slow turn to WNW and then NW before nearly stalling. That's my forecast for now and I'm sticking to that.

Longer range than that it will depend on how much drifting to the north it does. If it stays far enough south then the ridge rebuilding off the east coast may trap it. Then of course all bets are off.
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438. JRRP
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that map right there is proof that the models have had issues with initialization from the start
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Heh, The only one that initialized correctly has the furthest south track before it shoots it northward...LBAR.

yea
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Quoting BenBIogger:
KHRM Track



I think that is the perfect track as of now.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
95L looks to be moving due west to me at least for now anyway
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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