95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Dry air appears to be distanced enough from 95L to only be a minor issue; probably won't stop it from becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting germemiguel:
No tropical depression before Sunday evening, there is to much dry air to its north
Quoting hurricane556:
td by 5 pm


No and No
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Maybe a little early for climatology, but 6 August TDs have passed through 95L's turf. 1 fishy fizzle, 2 threats to Bermuda and the Maritimes, 2 Florida hits and one 'Bama. 4 majors.

Bill was a great wave machine, an encore would be ok.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Why wouldn't we see development out of the next wave? 34L is definitely far enough away from 31L that neither should inhibit the other

by the time 34L gets over water, 31L should be past 40W


95L will be a large storm, according to the models. So its anticyclonic outflow will be relatively far reaching. That's why.
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td by 5 pm
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No tropical storm before Sunday evening, there is to much dry air to its north
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, W motion.


281 deg, West by North Link
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Quoting TerraNova:
Tropical depression formation appears to be imminent.

Bertha part 2, anyone?



may be
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Quoting KoritheMan:


True, but I wouldn't expect development in the EATL from PG34. Now, down the road? Quite possibly. I've been watching this wave for over 24 hours now, and it's continued to become better defined.


Why wouldn't we see development out of the next wave? 34L is definitely far enough away from 31L that neither should inhibit the other

by the time 34L gets over water, 31L should be past 40W
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i think we may see 80% next two
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Quoting washingtonian115:
T.D by tonight/eary morning?


Lets see....70% by 8PM

80% by 2AM

Probably tomorrow morning.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
T.D by tonight/eary morning?
If it can close its circulation its a pretty good possibility.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Tropical depression formation appears to be imminent.

Bertha part 2, anyone?
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Possibly...but neither climatology nor all the models necessarily agree. 34L is very active, it has several pockets of high vorticity, and it's displaying several overshooting hot towers. Too, it's got strong enough circulation to fight off a bit of dry air to its north, so everything looks good for it...though, of course, we'll have to see what happens once it moves out over the Atlantic waters late tomorrow or Monday.


True, but I wouldn't expect development in the EATL from PG34. Now, down the road? Quite possibly. I've been watching this wave for over 24 hours now, and it's continued to become better defined.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Yup, W motion.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh oh:

Pressure down and winds up.

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 1008, DB,
T.D by tonight/eary morning?
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Yup, 95L's moving west. I think the NHC was referring to future motion.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23632
Quoting StormW:


A orange and yellow area?


haha, very funny Storm!

lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


35 mph?
Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Cotillion:


Have wondered since Laura in 2008 (and with storms in history like Faith, Debbie, Vince etc) whether the NHC would have the jurisdiction to even issue a TS Watch for Europe.

Mind the Gap!
Sorry--couldn't resist!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh oh:

Pressure down and winds up.

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 1008, DB,


35 mph?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Satellite analyzed position:

AL, 95, 201008211800, 70, ANAL, P, , 1070N, 3170W,


31.7W 10.7N
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Pressure down and winds up, moving W, with a slight hint of north but not quite WNW.

AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 1008, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting CycloneUK:


Possible UK hit? Interesting...


Nah, doubt we'll even get the extratropical remnants.

Have wondered since Laura in 2008 (and with storms in history like Faith, Debbie, Vince etc - oh, and Grace of course) whether the NHC would have the jurisdiction to even issue a TS Watch for Europe if something came close. Suppose it might boil down to individual Met Offices to issue them if warranted.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Satellite analyzed position:

AL, 95, 201008211800, 70, ANAL, P, , 1070N, 3170W,
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Eastern Atlantic likely to be temporarily shut down from development once 95L becomes a mature tropical cyclone.

Should open back up in about four to five days, though.


Possibly...but neither climatology nor all the models necessarily agree. 34L is very active, it has several pockets of high vorticity, and it's displaying several overshooting hot towers. Too, it's got strong enough circulation to fight off a bit of dry air to its north, so everything looks good for it...though, of course, we'll have to see what happens once it moves out over the Atlantic waters late tomorrow or Monday.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Quoting washingtonian115:
If miami's forcast track is accurate that means that a track like hurricane Marilyn(are you happy now?) would be possible,or a Luis track.
Both those are pretty good.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Could be 10.9 31.6, or not.
Yup, I see it right around there, just a tad more west.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
This was mentioned in earlier discussions from NWS New orleans, as a cut off weak low moving across Fl and into N. Gulf and tracking W. (the swirl off S.E. coast)
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If miami's forcast track is accurate that means that a track like hurricane Marilyn(are you happy now?) would be possible,or a Luis track.
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Quoting breald:


Thanks! They get a lot of attention when I take them out. If you live in Florida and are interested in adopting one of these beauties they have a great rescue group there. Email me and I will give you the group's info.


I've always admired that breed but wondered how their coats would hold up in the South.
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we just hit a rainfall rate of 8.86 inches an hour in the Fl Panhandle! Visibility down to less than 50 yards. Tropical! Took a lightning hit on the next block. Bzzzzzzzzt!
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Quoting weathermancer:


Indeed.
cheers!


Cheers, mate!
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Quoting breald:


Thanks! They get a lot of attention when I take them out. If you live in Florida and are interested in adopting one of these beauties they have a great rescue group there. Email me and I will give you the group's info.
Sure will. Give me a minute.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah. Yeah, Bill just missed you guys last year IIRC.

I'd watch 95L closely if I were you, even though at this juncture I don't see it making it that far west.


Indeed.
cheers!
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry I was thinking about the state.


I figured that. I thought your play on words was funny.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm eager to see the 18z ATCF center fix.


Could be 10.9 31.6, or not.
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Quoting will45:


a frontal zone with what was left of x5 mixed in


Oh...

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm eager to see the 18z ATCF center fix.


I think it is moving slightly north of due west

11N 32W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What's off the SE coast?



a frontal zone with what was left of x5 mixed in
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Agreed. Very beautiful.


Thanks! They get a lot of attention when I take them out. If you live in Florida and are interested in adopting one of these beauties they have a great rescue group there. Email me and I will give you the group's info.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting weathermancer:


coastal Halifax, NS


Ah. Yeah, Bill just missed you guys last year IIRC.

I'd watch 95L closely if I were you, even though at this juncture I don't see it making it that far west.
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Quoting StormW:


Pretty slim based on everything at the moment.

Once this reaches 50W-55W, I should have a very good idea of what's going to happen.
thank you very much
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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