95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 586 - 536

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Quoting Tazmanian:
can i have the link that shows 34L


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Temperature departures from 2005. Red colors show where 2010 is warmer than 2005 while blue shows where 2010 is cooler than 2005:

That plot has a slightly annoying color scale...just where is the 0? And the positive 0.5?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
Whatever 95L is doing, the weather in the NE carib is just amazing today : calm winds, flat seas, warm waters, awesome blue skies, and NO DUST. The islands are really green, everthing is just beautiful...

Don't forget winter like low humidity...
today and yesterday have been great!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Temperature departures from 2005. Red colors show where 2010 is warmer than 2005 while blue shows where 2010 is cooler than 2005:



Overall, conditions this year have been much better than what they were in 2005.

Not as much Dry Air

Hotter SST's across much of the Atlantic

Not sure about shear

There's something we are missing that made 2005 so active...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
582. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
osuwxguynew "If it stays far enough south then the ridge rebuilding off the east coast may trap it. Then of course all bets are off."

If it trapped it, where would the projected path then go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can i have the link that shows 34L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Temperature departures from 2005. Red colors show where 2010 is warmer than 2005 while blue shows where 2010 is cooler than 2005:



hot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, the only weather we've had around NOLA for the last 2 months has been hot and under-cloud-mass-of-maybe-tropical-threat. I think I'd take a 3rd visit from TD05 about now.

Oh, and I found my car, y'all.


How do you lose a car?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Temperature departures from 2005. Red colors show where 2010 is warmer than 2005 while blue shows where 2010 is cooler than 2005:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Where is 456?


At home
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canehater1:
MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERAL
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST... PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR
THE FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
LOW. 11

From latest N.O. fcst discussion
Yes a AOI, most NWS mets trying to factor into forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canehater1:
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR
THE FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
LOW. 11

From latest N.O. fcst discussion

Well, the only weather we've had around NOLA for the last 2 months has been hot and under-cloud-mass-of-maybe-tropical-threat. I think I'd take a 3rd visit from TD05 about now.

Oh, and I found my car, y'all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking much better. Now I'm out. Lol.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I beleive we'll see TS Danielle tomorrow night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where is 456?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
She's putting her face on, which, from experience, can take a very, very long time...


She's young and inexperienced, it takes time to learn how to put your face on and become a "big girl"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z ECMWF still making no sense.

Later everyone!


AGREED!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z ECMWF still making no sense.

Later everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whatever 95L is doing, the weather in the NE carib is just amazing today : calm winds, flat seas, warm waters, awesome blue skies, and NO DUST. The islands are really green, everthing is just beautiful...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERAL
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL NEAR THE COAST... PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON OR NEAR
THE FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE WEST...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
LOW. 11

From latest N.O. fcst discussion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RedStickCasterette:


I've always admired that breed but wondered how their coats would hold up in the South.


I did shave the big one in the summer but you don't have to. Just brush them and give them a bath every three months. Fur wise they are fine in the hot summers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF @ 144 hours...



12Z ECMWF is just plain ridiculous - it's showing 95L (or Danielle) at 45W - 28N!!! It would have to move NNW pretty soon then...!! LMAO 12Z model is definitely out to lunch!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SHIPS really likes 95L; TS in 12 hours with a category 1 hurricane in 48 hours. It turns into a category 2 hurricane by 72 hours.

AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 0, 108N, 318W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 12, 112N, 328W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 24, 120N, 340W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 36, 131N, 358W, 59, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 48, 150N, 385W, 70, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 60, 171N, 420W, 79, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 72, 194N, 457W, 86, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 84, 212N, 491W, 87, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 96, 224N, 520W, 87, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 108, 228N, 541W, 86, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010082118, 03, SHIP, 120, 231N, 550W, 88, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
95L really does have good spin to it as noted in the last few frames. Click the link and then zoom in to 95L on the loop. Make sure to increase the animation speed to see it clearer.

North Atlantic - Visible Loop

I'll go on a limb by saying that we will have 06L by this time tomorrow.


We can go a little further out on that limb and say we may have Danielle by this time tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


The Bahamas. :)


Thats cute!

LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting robj144:


The Bahamas. :)


I was going to say water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What's off the SE coast?



The Bahamas. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
554. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 144 hours...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Again, you may be right...though both the GFS and ECMWF develop it over the next several days, and the UKMET appears to be slowly coming to agreement.

In fact, let me go out on a limb (because nobody will remember if I'm wrong, but I'll be a god if I'm right): given the potential Gulf situation--which, again, both the GFS and ECMWF seem to be seeing--it's very possible we'll see three named storms at once at some point next weekend or shortly into the early part of the following week. ;-)


If I'm wrong, I'll concede. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
remember models are meant to be used as guidance only and donot depict final outcome in any single event things can and will change
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB also at T1.0 as of 17:45 UTC.



09 can i have the link that shows 34L thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


1.5...


Teddy: Where do you get these coordinates from? Navy site reports 10.8N - 31.8W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NASA101:


Ifs, BUTs and Will..!? The next wave is about 35 degs east of 95L - too far to have any significant impact - 34L is moving faster than 95L though...!!


I could be wrong, but we'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


True, but I wouldn't expect development in the EATL from PG34. Now, down the road? Quite possibly. I've been watching this wave for over 24 hours now, and it's continued to become better defined.


Again, you may be right...though both the GFS and ECMWF develop it over the next several days, and the UKMET appears to be slowly coming to agreement.

In fact, let me go out on a limb (because nobody will remember if I'm wrong, but I'll be a god if I'm right): given the potential Gulf situation--which, again, both the GFS and ECMWF seem to be seeing--it's very possible we'll see three named storms at once at some point next weekend or shortly into the early part of the following week. ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L
TAFB also at T1.5 as of 17:45 UTC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


95L will be a large storm, according to the models. So its anticyclonic outflow will be relatively far reaching. That's why.


Ifs, BUTs and Will..!? The next wave is about 35 degs east of 95L - too far to have any significant impact - 34L is moving faster than 95L though...!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L really does have good spin to it as noted in the last few frames. Click the link and then zoom in to 95L on the loop. Make sure to increase the animation speed to see it clearer.

North Atlantic - Visible Loop

I'll go on a limb by saying that we will have 06L by this time tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L


1.5...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L


still below 11N and well below where models initialized it a couple of days ago!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
She's putting her face on, which, from experience, can take a very, very long time...


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FFtrombi:
Danielle is getting dressed < yes I know a very gay comment but she is getting a lot prettier!

She's putting her face on, which, from experience, can take a very, very long time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L



thats not good
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dry air appears to be distanced enough from 95L to only be a minor issue; probably won't stop it from becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow.




or may be even by late tonight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dry air appears to be distanced enough from 95L to only be a minor issue; probably won't stop it from becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 586 - 536

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.