95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


Moving north of west...imagine that.
I think the various NWS mets talk to each other, especially the ajoining ones. I've seen where they even remark on near NWS locations forecast.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I think that's the warmest AMO figure on record.


Not quite.

1998 reached 0.555. The strongest actual figure is way, way back (though whether the retrospective figures are as valid, I don't know).
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Might have 96L in 72 hours or so if the ECMWF verifies. Its PGI34L its developing.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23489
583. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

It simple, timing

We need to realize that in 2005, a bulk of the waves had that tenacity to take advantage of the small windows they had to develop.

If you look at this year though, timing is the only reason we do not have say 6 or 7 storms as we all know that several of our invests came very close to getting classified
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Quoting Cotillion:
There's something we are missing that made 2005 so active..

Yeah.

MNCO.

(Mother Nature's Coffee Oscillation. When nature is well stocked with caffeine, she's good. When coffee is of a critical quantity, she gets mad...)

I think this is at least as accurate viable as taken the 3 or 4 conditions they have in common and then saying this season will be just like another..
Some sane climatologist needs to look at what they don't have in common. Especially this years killers, Dust and the semi persistent TUTT near PR. We saw so many waves have their convection
smothered or shear off this year I have breathed nothing but sighs of relief for months..
Then there is the instability factor...what were AIR temperatures? The Lows over the US, atlantic and even Europe as the tail of a low in europe might affect waves coming off Africa... there is a lot more to consider then nina's and SST's
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Quoting btwntx08:

it dropped it this run 12z

good okay.
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August 21st, the HyperActive 2010 hurricane is tied for the fewest storms on this date since the active period began in 1995.
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Quoting Cotillion:



AMO figures

1982: -0.050 -0.048 -0.049 -0.147 -0.165 -0.152 -0.195 -0.273 -0.270 -0.327 -0.382 -0.350

2010: 0.085 0.218 0.331 0.474 0.503 0.494 0.500

(Though, 1982 was a huge El Nino and 2010 is about to be a fairly potent La Nina does skew the comparison a bit if it's direct).


I think that's the warmest AMO figure on record.
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624. xcool
SATURDAY 1 PM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING NEAR 12 NORTH, 31 WEST.

Visible cloud shots are starting to show that the model idea of a tropical cyclone evolving southwest of the Cape Verde islands is correct. The GFS is still insisting on this breaking the atlantic ridge and recurving.

In the meantime, the development of the summer noreaster for Sunday night into Tuesday looks on target.

Whats left of TD 5 is south of Atlanta Ga, and drifting slowly east, though its not as well defined as yesterday. Heavy thunderstorms are developing over Florida Bay well south of where the small bump in the cloud shot over GA is

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****


SATURDAY 10:30 AM

GLOBALLY, SOME INTERESTING THINGS STARTING TO HAPPEN.


Moscow has had their hottest summer on record but much cooler has finally ended their summer and in fact the next 10 days look quite cool there. The invasion of cool into the US and then the subsequent building of the ridge over the lakes and northeast, should raise pressures sufficiently in the means over the atlantic north of 35 north to finally start the still dormant hurricane season. While the system in the southeast atlantic is the storm du jur of most modeling the overall pattern is one that says that within the next 10 days, a threat to the US coastline, most likely in the gulf, is the best bet. This accentuated on the Canadian ensembles, and on the European operational, as forecasted pressures lower in the gulf while rising over much of the eastern US in the wake of the strong trough that is moving through.

Globally, this is probably the quietest 3 Jun-Aug period on record. Though we now have all three basins with some form of tropical activity it is still not even something that can add to the ace index in a way that can sway this.

This has been an amazing summer. The SOI is challenging the back to back July-Aug records for strongest 2 month positive, as we see 1950,1955,1975 in the mix. This is a fascinating situation. It appears that when their is a Cold PDO and warm AMO, The September temp will follow the August example for the nation. We have the 1950 and 1955 examples to look at. Aug 1950 was cold across the US, the way the CFS was forecasting ( it is still amazingly out of touch in the central plains, where its "nowcast" still has August below normal!) back in late July and as Sept forecasted now. In any case Sept 1950 was a cold Sept. In 1955 Aug was warm and Sept was warm. So another interesting test of my ideas is coming up. The other one? That this hurricane season comes to life with a feeding frenzy for the atlantic basin.

Looks like the end of the summer season into Sep is going to boil away.. as a major heat wave develops later next week and probably down the road into the labor day weekend. The deepening trough on the east coast is right in line early next week with the means for octant 4 of the MJO, and so far it has refused to come out to where I though it would be in the heart of the season ( of course that is only 6 days old, but that is six days of being wrong). In any case once that trough lifts, it leaves a piece behind in the gulf and there is where problems may start. As far as the atlantic wave, well the front running near 45 needs to be watched as it gets west of 60... but the back one is still forecast on most modeling to recurve into the north atlantic. I say most, cause there are plenty of the various ensemble runs that buy hook or crook have a storm in the southwest atlantic of gulf in 6-10 days ( canadian individual runs are really interesting) But transitory patterns are always the toughest.

Speaking of tough, a months worth of rain is coming for parts of the northeast Sunday and Monday. This looks like some places could pick up over 5 inches of rain as the summer noreaster gets cranking Monday and Tuesday. Abnormally warm water and a last minute deepening and entrainment of tropical moisture makes this a real problem Areas north of I 80 in the northeast and then much of New england look to be under the gun for an excessive rain event with this...

Heavy rains? Its not like we havent seen it this summer.

Thanks for reading, ciao for now ****


by joe b
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Ummm, yeah...we most likely have a TD right now. Gotta go with the NHC's persistence thing though:

Link
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620. xcool
21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Just to show you how much warmer the Atlantic is during a warm AMO period than a cold one...this is comparing 2010 with 1982:




AMO figures

1982: -0.050 -0.048 -0.049 -0.147 -0.165 -0.152 -0.195 -0.273 -0.270 -0.327 -0.382 -0.350

2010: 0.085 0.218 0.331 0.474 0.503 0.494 0.500

(Though, 1982 was a huge El Nino and 2010 is about to be a fairly potent La Nina does skew the comparison a bit if it's direct).
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Ike how can you tell what intensity system that is on the ECMWF hitting texas?
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ECMWF now with the NOGAPS and CMC on two systems developing.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23489
616. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 211825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W
BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W
BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W
LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 12.0N 36.7W 12.5N 39.9W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W
BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W
BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W
LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.7W 25.2N 54.4W
SHIP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS
DSHP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Hmmmm. jajajajaja =)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Love it!
Quoting btwntx08:

lmao


LOL! Sorry, let me fix it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Link



thanks
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612. IKE
12Z ECMWF through August 31st...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Just to show you how much warmer the Atlantic is during a warm AMO period than a cold one...this is comparing 2010 with 1982:

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Just got some rain here. Tiny little blob on radar, lol. Always busy watching tropical stuff to pay attention to what's going on around me!

Great, now it will be steamier outside...
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Quoting PELLSPROG:
Is it really RE-curve or just plane old Curve .
Doesn't the RE mean that it curved once already and that it's doing it again ? I get confused by the term Re curve.

Example: The storm is expected to re-curve out to sea.
Example : The storm is expexted to curve out to sea.


Waste of a blog space!
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608. IKE
Quoting aspectre:
95L
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
19Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N23.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
19Aug - 06pmGMT - 11.0N24.1W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 12amGMT - 11.0N24.7W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06amGMT - 11.0N25.3W - - 25mph - - - 1008mb
20Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N26.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.4N29.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.0N27.0Wthen11.1N26.6W*
21Aug - 00amGMT - 10.4N29.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.1N27.1W*
21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5N30.3W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.2N27.6W*
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6N31.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8N31.8W - - 30mph - - - 1008mb

*before NHC reevaluated&altered 95L's path
Copy&paste 10.4N29.0W-10.4N29.6W, 10.4N29.6W-10.5N30.3W, 10.5N30.3W-10.6N31.0W, 10.6N31.0W-10.8N31.8W, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee at the last 24hours.
95L had been most recently heading 8.2degrees west of WestNorthWest at ~9.3mph(15km/h)


Moving north of west...imagine that.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Is it really RE-curve or just plane old Curve .
Doesn't the RE mean that it curved once already and that it's doing it again ? I get confused by the term Re curve.

Example: The storm is expected to re-curve out to sea.
Example : The storm is expexted to curve out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L had been most recently heading 8.2degrees west of WestNorthWest at ~9.3mph(15km/h)
- Date - - - Time - - - - - Location - - Windspeed - Pressure
19Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N23.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
19Aug - 06pmGMT - 11.0N24.1W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 12amGMT - 11.0N24.7W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06amGMT - 11.0N25.3W - - 25mph - - - 1008mb
20Aug - 12pmGMT - 11.0N26.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
20Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.4N29.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.0N27.0Wthen11.1N26.6W*
21Aug - 00amGMT - 10.4N29.6W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.1N27.1W*
21Aug - 06amGMT - 10.5N30.3W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb *was11.2N27.6W*
21Aug - 12pmGMT - 10.6N31.0W - - 25mph - - - 1009mb
21Aug - 06pmGMT - 10.8N31.8W - - 30mph - - - 1008mb
*before NHC reevaluated&altered 95L's path
Copy&paste 10.4N29.0W-10.4N29.6W, 10.4N29.6W-10.5N30.3W, 10.5N30.3W-10.6N31.0W, 10.6N31.0W-10.8N31.8W, hex, bda, sid, tuv into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours
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604. IKE
Heavy rain moving SSE...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
well, models dont want to change their mind. I'll be back later.
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602. JRRP
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


We can go a little further out on that limb and say we may have Danielle by this time tomorrow.

It Think TD6 by tonight it's had the spin for a couple days based on near passes by SCAT's and it's been developing convection all day.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km/zooms/WMBds112.png
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There's something we are missing that made 2005 so active..

Yeah.

MNCO.

(Mother Nature's Coffee Oscillation. When nature is well stocked with caffeine, she's good. When coffee is of a critical quantity, she gets mad...)
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Ask Dr. Maue. He's the one that made the scale. :-) He is actually on the blog from time to time.
If I were doing it, I'd make the plus/minus 0.5 white...and label it so. So, I guess we'll have to ask Ryan...
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Temp departures from 2008...not even close. If the atmosphere ever cooperates with these temps...

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596. IKE
Quoting gbreezegirl:
Wow it is really coming a flood here in the breeze/pcola area - Ike you getting any of this?


Yes...moving in now......

168 hour 12Z ECMWF....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Thinks the ECMWF might be too far north.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23489
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Overall, conditions in 2005 are much better than what they were in 2005.
Love it!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
That plot has a slightly annoying color scale...just where is the 0? And the positive 0.5?


Ask Dr. Maue. He's the one that made the scale. :-) He is actually on the blog from time to time.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Overall, conditions in 2005 are much better than what they were in 2005.

Not as much Dry Air

Hotter SST's across much of the Atlantic

Not sure about shear

There's something we are missing that made 2005 so active...


Hmmmm. jajajajaja =)
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Quoting spathy:

The grass had not been mowed in a while!


lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How do you lose a car?
Park it in the yard for 2 days here, right now. Poof. Invisible.
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Wow it is really coming a flood here in the breeze/pcola area - Ike you getting any of this?
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If anyone is buying WNW I have a bridge for sale.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
can i have the link that shows 34L


Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.