95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
something going on 95l just disappear from my navy page

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
93E.INVEST
08E.EIGHT

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


Upgrade?
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centex, DMAX happens in the morning around sunrise, DMIN happens around sunset. So the cycle makes sense with these systems looking better as the day goes on, however convection peaks in the early daylight hours wanes throughout the day and then begins to perk up a bit once night falls.
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684. xcool
extreme236 .idid ;)
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CMC and GFS have a very deep area of low pressure hitting britain sometime next week.
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something going on 95l just disappear from my navy page

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific
93E.INVEST
08E.EIGHT

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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In case this wasn't posted:

21/1745 UTC 10.5N 32.2W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i say 80 too 90% next two


Perhaps Taz, they will wait another TWO and post something like 80-90% chance of the low becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. A tropical depression may be forming at this time and if trends continue may begin initiating advisories at the 11pm update.
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Quoting Relix:
And so north it shall go. =P


Westtt......
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No one (I've seen) has explained why AOI build convection through late afternoon than at night or by early morning it weans. I thought this was oposite what we would expect over water and the dimin/dimax thing.
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Personally I think 95L is organizing quite rapidly, could be a TD already in my opinion, I notice or it appears like the models are shifting left, more west and further south before the "recurve". I think anywhere from the Leewards to The N/S Carolina coast might need to monitor this closely, just my opinion.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
95L is definitely looking much better today.


It should be a TD
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675. Relix
And so north it shall go. =P
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Quoting DestinJeff:


i agree that is more likely now. was 2 TWO high chance?


Went from 30% at 8AM to 60% at 2PM
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670. IKE
Quoting txsweetpea:

I know ECMWF dropped it...didnt know at the time I posted


Yeah...nothing in the GOM on that run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Why are systems gaining strength in the day instead of night?
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Quoting leelee75k:
Yeah I never quite got the recurve thing either, I suppose all storms travel at a curve therefore they must then recurve, something like that.

Will TD8 get to close to any of the islands before it turns?


TD #6
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i have sean this happen before
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i say 80 too 90% next two
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Quoting IKE:


I don't see anything hitting Texas.

I know ECMWF dropped it...didnt know at the time I posted
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
will we get a 5 pm tropical depression


How do you figure that? I say TD 11 am tomorrow morning at the earliest.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
oops and I meant 95L not TD 8, sorry :)
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will we get a 5 pm tropical depression
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Yeah I never quite got the recurve thing either, I suppose all storms travel at a curve therefore they must then recurve, something like that.

Will TD8 get to close to any of the islands before it turns?
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654. IKE
Quoting txsweetpea:
Ike how can you tell what intensity system that is on the ECMWF hitting texas?


I don't see anything hitting Texas.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Might have 96L in 72 hours or so if the ECMWF verifies. Its PGI34L its developing.

these systems that form in e atl will play follow the leader out to sea. this will be the case until the a/b high can get back on its feet otherwise that good for the mainland us.
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675

WHXX01 KWBC 211825

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1825 UTC SAT AUG 21 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100821 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100821 1800 100822 0600 100822 1800 100823 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.8N 31.8W 11.1N 32.5W 12.0N 33.3W 13.7N 35.0W

BAMD 10.8N 31.8W 10.9N 33.5W 10.9N 35.1W 11.0N 36.8W

BAMM 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 32.8W 12.0N 34.0W 13.1N 35.8W

LBAR 10.8N 31.8W 11.2N 33.8W 12.0N 36.7W 12.5N 39.9W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 48KTS 59KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100823 1800 100824 1800 100825 1800 100826 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.9N 38.2W 20.2N 46.6W 21.7N 53.8W 21.1N 56.6W

BAMD 11.6N 38.5W 14.3N 42.4W 19.5N 46.3W 25.7N 47.7W

BAMM 15.0N 38.5W 19.4N 45.7W 22.4N 52.0W 23.1N 55.0W

LBAR 13.2N 43.6W 14.2N 50.2W 15.8N 53.7W 25.2N 54.4W

SHIP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS

DSHP 70KTS 86KTS 87KTS 88KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 281DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 30.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 29.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting StormW:
Got to go now.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical depression.

Zoom in.

LOOP
Looks big as size goes.
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Quoting StormW:
Got to go now.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical depression.

Zoom in.

LOOP

Hmmmm...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
Quoting StormW:
Got to go now.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical depression.

Zoom in.

LOOP


Noticed this myself about an hour ago. Low clouds wrapping into the center, rather than away from it. A good sign.
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POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/95L
MARK
11.46N/31.75W
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Not to jump on the band wagon but T.D. by 8pm. If not stronger.
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I dont care what the NHC says, I'm calling it a TD because thats what it is...

*A TD is not official*
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Quoting StormW:
Got to go now.

Satellite loop imagery indicates a tropical depression.

Zoom in.

LOOP


Link
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Quoting txsweetpea:

good okay.


If it develops, it shouldn't have enough time to become more than a moderate tropical storm. The farther east it goes, the higher the intensity.
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Quoting jrweatherman:
August 21st, the HyperActive 2010 hurricane is tied for the fewest storms on this date since the active period began in 1995.


Incorrect.

2001 at this point had 3-0-0
1998 at this point also had 3-0-0
We're at 3-1-0, probably will be 4-2-1 or maybe 5-2-1 at the end of the month.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting jrweatherman:
August 21st, the HyperActive 2010 hurricane is tied for the fewest storms on this date since the active period began in 1995.


You mean last year, right?
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Quoting centex:
I think the various NWS mets talk to each other, especially the ajoining ones. I've seen where they even remark on near NWS locations forecast.
meant for bt08, sometimes I mess up or blogg post comment to wrong entry.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.