95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormpetrol:
95L will become the first major hurricane of 2010 season and I think quite a powerful one at that, jmo, lets hope it recurves and doesn't affect any land areas!


I'm ready to see a good re-curve !!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
could we stop with the fish storm thing plzs when we dont even have a TD yet


Your right Taz, still has many miles of ocean to go the track and outcome can change.
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Good afternoon everyone, Looks like 95L is showing off some!
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723. oracle28 7:47 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

models also continue to show a further northward movement than 95L has had.

their initialization is off
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren

We have TD9 in the EPAC


How's that a TD but not 95L???
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93E also went from 30% at 8AM from 60% to 2PM.
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729. IKE
Quoting Vero1:


Track just like the models are forecasting. I'm 99% sure the USA avoids 95L. I'm about 80% sure the islands do.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
TD 9-E may require some watches and warnings for Mexico?
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727. xcool
THAT SO SAD.TD9 IN EPAC.ATL 3 STORMS
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New TD in the East Pacific


invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren 21-Aug-2010 19:38 1.1K
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting btwntx08:

we all discuss this already u need to read the past posts


I didnt realize it had droppped it either, think it will remain that way?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
even if this was going out too sea if you have not for got in Bermuda is out there has well and Bermuda is land too


Models continue to show it recurving to the east of Bermuda.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah we just got it at 6Z today





93E wins the race
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that was fast


Yeah we just got it at 6Z today
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren

We have TD9 in the EPAC



that was fast
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718. Vero1
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
The system still seems a bit elongated. Granted if it was closer to land i think this would be a TD now but due to its location I would expect NHC to wait about 12 more hours in order to look for persistence and more organization
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Quoting PELLSPROG:
Is it really RE-curve or just plane old Curve .
Doesn't the RE mean that it curved once already and that it's doing it again ? I get confused by the term Re curve.

Example: The storm is expected to re-curve out to sea.
Example : The storm is expexted to curve out to sea.


re·curve (rē-kûrv')
tr. & intr.v., -curved, -curv·ing, -curves.
To curve (something) backward or downward or become curved backward or downward.
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715. Relix
It's moving WNW if my eyes don't deceive me.
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If the anti dmax/dmin continues we would expect 95L to start deceasing convection soon at that position. And not until sun gets higher tomorrow that convection to increase. This is not the first AOI to do this. Normally they look best in morning and not afternoon like land systems.
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invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep092010.ren

We have TD9 in the EPAC
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guys what about Bermuda
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I just don't see the trof that's supposed to snap turn this thing suddenly to the right. I know about strength and poleward motion, etc... but can anyone show a graph or chart and mark on it why it'll go that way?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
583. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:52 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

It simple, timing

We need to realize that in 2005, a bulk of the waves had that tenacity to take advantage of the small windows they had to develop.

If you look at this year though, timing is the only reason we do not have say 6 or 7 storms as we all know that several of our invests came very close to getting classified

Could be that simple.
Statically 2005 could have been the year that sits at the top of the curve for the right conditions to come together the greatest number of times. This year's the opposite, the waves never hit or stayed in those windows where the was less/no dust or the times the TUTT was absent.
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Now that the floater is up on the nhc site for 95l, it looks like it has just become a td.
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XX/XX/95L
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even if this was going out too sea if you have not for got in Bermuda is out there has well and Bermuda is land too
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95L will become the first major hurricane of 2010 season and I think quite a powerful one at that, jmo, lets hope it recurves and doesn't affect any land areas!
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XX/XX/95L
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i say 80 too 90% next two


I concur, that is the NHC way. Nothing gets designated for at least 12-24 hours after it has attained that status.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Link


Thats a great view...looking very healthy.
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like we still have model consensus. That's good news considering it's projected to be a 100+ mph cyclone
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XX/XX/95L
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Quoting btwntx08:

thank u was gonna say it too


Yeah, it may hit the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda...
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Quoting xcool:
i'm call TD6 .JMO ;










I agree, quite a large system too.
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697. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting leelee75k:
Yeah I never quite got the recurve thing either, I suppose all storms travel at a curve therefore they must then recurve, something like that.

Will TD8 get to close to any of the islands before it turns?


This comes up here so often that Dr. Masters should make it a sticky post at the top of the forum. ;-)

Check out some of these for the answer.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
Quoting xcool:
i'm call TD6 .JMO ;












Me too
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694. xcool
i'm call TD6 .JMO ;










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could we stop with the fish storm thing plzs when we dont even have a TD yet
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Quoting NASA101:


Waste of a blog space!




Thank you .
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Is 95L still looking like a fish storm?


Yep
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
centex, DMAX happens in the morning around sunrise, DMIN happens around sunset. So the cycle makes sense with these systems looking better as the day goes on, however convection peaks in the early daylight hours wanes throughout the day and then begins to perk up a bit once night falls.
Not what I've seen in recent AOI. Looks worst late night early morn and best early afternoon.
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Is 95L still looking like a fish storm?
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688. xcool
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


How do you figure that? I say TD 11 am tomorrow morning at the earliest.


Only a slight increase in T-numbers could warrant a TD. I'd say possibly as early as 11pm tonight. Depends on convective trends.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
something going on 95l just disappear from my navy page

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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