95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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do we have TD6?
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Quoting VAstorms:

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?


Advisories will go up in an hour.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
NHC won't declare TD until Reed gives the green light.


lmao
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phUNNY pHISH ..
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Quoting VAstorms:

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?




its now a TD
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Quoting VAstorms:

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?


They will at 5PM advisory.
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You folks are funny!
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Quoting TxWxFan:
Check it out!
AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD,

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?
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Quoting IKE:


After we've read all morning that it was going west.


Well I understand disagreement with the ways that it may or may-not be moving. I'm simply saying that every post I've seen of yours in the contrary is very self-serving and self-assured to the point of banality. You seem to get off on making sure other people are wrong and then sticking their faces in it. I /hope/ it goes out to see. I want it too, but I'm not naive enough to believe that any computer model no matter how extensive OR well planned and plotted will have control on exactly what weather will do.

That's why it's called Forecasting and Predicting, not Telling. It's the same adage with fishing, ironically enough.

If we knew it 100% of the time, it would simply be called 'catching'
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that was a little un forcasted
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TD #6
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that was fast
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TD6! Woo!
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WE have TD 6
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Check it out!
AL, 95, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD,
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08/21/2010 07:52PM 1,658 invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren
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Quoting VAstorms:
Doesn't Invest 95L have the wind speed to be a Td now? Convection isn't too impressive though and did not see a current minimum pressure.


pressure 1008mb
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95L-1008mb
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764. IKE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ouch


He sounds a little ticked because it's not going west.

If he read my post early this morning he would have seen my comments about me being stupid assuming the models were correct with intensity of 95L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


I put the COC in the middle. Everyone is getting excited, our second true tropical cyclone is developing and we are excited. Everyone act civilized.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Also the BAMS recurves it South at the end how about that one.
I saw that-interesting.
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Doesn't Invest 95L have the wind speed to be a Td now? Convection isn't too impressive though and did not see a current minimum pressure.
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Quoting JLPR2:



How about Changing USA to CONUS, remember this?
Puerto Rico
USA Virgin Islands

XD
But yep, as of now off to sea, according to the models.

-------------------
Hello everyone! Anyone else baking with their temps? :|


Hey, its you!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
723. oracle28 7:47 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

models also continue to show a further northward movement than 95L has had.

their initialization is off


Also the BAMS recurves it South at the end how about that one.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting Ryuujin:


Unless it's wrong. And I may be new here and this might be out of line...but you have a real smarmy, smart-aleck way about you that's extraordinarily off-putting. You might be the kindest, nicest person in the world, but IMHO you really come off as a wanna-be know it all jerk here. Especially when people disagree with your own evaluation of the situation.


Lol..that is out of line. Ike and I have gotten into it a couple of times because I don't agree with the way he "downcasts", but Ike is a good person with good intentions. All he wants is for everyone to stay safe.
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TD 9 would will be other no name storm
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


actually 5 named storms, Estelle was the last 1


Was a typo lol, how did you reply that fast, thought I had covered it up good :P
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..oooofh


Current Conditions

Audubon Park-Patton St., New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 11 min 13 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
94.4 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 62%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.95 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 113 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
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752. IKE
Quoting Ryuujin:


Unless it's wrong. And I may be new here and this might be out of line...but you have a real smarmy, smart-aleck way about you that's extraordinarily off-putting. You might be the kindest, nicest person in the world, but IMHO you really come off as a wanna-be know it all jerk here. Especially when people disagree with your own evaluation of the situation.


After we've read all morning that it was going west.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting JLPR2:



How about Changing USA to CONUS, remember this?
Puerto Rico
USA Virgin Islands

XD
But yep, as of now off to sea, according to the models.

-------------------
Hello everyone! Anyone else baking with their temps? :|
Stick a fork in me im done! 110 degrees with heat Index!
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.....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


9 TDs, but how many named storms again?


5. Up to Estelle.
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 19:50:02Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
POSS T.C.F.A. ATLANTIC 95L
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How's that a TD but not 95L???



well that has intense convection right over center and has a tight circulation while 95L is elongated and has limited intense convection over center
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GOM IR loop

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Quoting xcool:
THAT SO SAD.TD9 IN EPAC.ATL 3 STORMS


Well there were 3 TD's in the EPAC that didn't get named excluding the recently designated TD9E, so there are still only 5 named storms that have formed in the EPAC so far this year.
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Quoting duajones78413:


What is SAD?


SAD = Storms Aren't Developing ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
742. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:


Track just like the models are forecasting. I'm 99% sure the USA avoids 95L. I'm about 80% sure the islands do.



How about Changing USA to CONUS, remember this?
Puerto Rico
USA Virgin Islands

XD
But yep, as of now off to sea, according to the models.

-------------------
Hello everyone! Anyone else baking with their temps? :|
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ryuujin:


Unless it's wrong. And I may be new here and this might be out of line...but you have a real smarmy, smart-aleck way about you that's extraordinarily off-putting. You might be the kindest, nicest person in the world, but IMHO you really come off as a wanna-be know it all jerk here. Especially when people disagree with your own evaluation of the situation.


Ouch
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Quoting xcool:
THAT SO SAD.TD9 IN EPAC.ATL 3 STORMS


9 TDs, but how many named storms again?
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Quoting xcool:
THAT SO SAD.TD9 IN EPAC.ATL 3 STORMS


What is SAD?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


How's that a TD but not 95L???


It actually looks pretty good:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html

In the last few frames it is evident that it's circulation has tightened a decent bit.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
95L will become the first major hurricane of 2010 season and I think quite a powerful one at that, jmo, lets hope it recurves and doesn't affect any land areas!


I'm ready to see a good re-curve !!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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