95L growing more organized; Pakistan's Indus River flood peaking downstream

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 95L) in the far eastern Atlantic about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands has become more organized this morning. Satellite loops show that the wave has some rotation, and heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in recent hours, after a period overnight with little change. Water vapor satellite loops show that there is some dry air to the north of 95L, but this dry air currently appears to be too far away to significantly interfere with development. The main impediment to development is the moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over the system. The shear is forecast to remain in the moderate range through Monday, then decrease. This should allow 95L to develop into a tropical depression Monday or Tuesday. NHC is giving 95L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. With 95L's recent increase in organization, these odds should probably be 50%.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 95L.

Forecast for 95L
A ridge of high pressure will force 95L to the west or west-northwest for the next five days, and the system should increase its forward speed from its current 5 - 10 mph to 15 - 20 mph by Monday. A series of two powerful troughs of low pressure are predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next week and cross the Atlantic; these troughs should be able to pull 95L far enough to the northwest so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. If 95L stays weak or does not develop in the next five days, as predicted by the NOGAPS model, it has a chance of eventually threatening Bermuda. If 95L develops into a hurricane, as predicted by most of the computer models, it will probably recurve to the east of Bermuda and not threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model is predicting formation of a tropical depression in the western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas 6 - 7 days from now.

Pakistan's monsoon rains diminish; Indus River flood crest nears the coast
The flooding on Pakistan's largest river, the Indus, has slowly eased along the upper and middle stretches where most of the heavy monsoon rains fell in late July and early August. However, a pulse of flood waters from these heavy rains is headed southwards towards the coast, and flood heights have risen to near all-time record levels today at the Indus River gauge station nearest to the coast, Kotri (Figure 2.) The new flooding has forced the evacuation of an additional 150,000 people in Pakistan today. Flood heights at every monitoring station along the Indus have been the highest or almost the highest since records began in 1947. Fortunately, the monsoon has entered a weak to moderate phase, and heavy rain is not expected over the flood region over the next few days, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 2. August flow rates along the Indus River, courtesy of the Pakistan Meteorology Department.

Some aid agencies helping with humanitarian crisis in Pakistan:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

Jeff Masters

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I lost my breath lol
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 20:00:02Z
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
POSS T.C.F.A. ATLANTIC 95L
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere


theres enough source
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834. xcool
btwntx08 lmao
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Well what a slow moving season still and the one storm we have appears to be a FISH.
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A TD..already??? I thought experts agreed that the wind shear would not allow this until at least tomorrow or Monday! Oh, heavens they were WRONG?????????? (drum roll) Oh, well, lots of fun to start now as we wait and watch. Love this blog and all information you guys put out...wishcasting or fishcasting, it is good information. Thanks.
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Kind of funny how the NHC wasted no time declaring the EPAC system a TD. If anything is close to land, it gets declared.

Anyway, I'm out for now. Gonna go watch the Braves beat the Cubs!
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Quoting xcool:
i was rigth td6 .yayy anyway


Whats your source?
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806. NASA101 8:03 PM GMT on August 21, 2010

from the ATCF site which is what the NHC uses to track invests

AL, 06, 2010082118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 318W, 25, 1008, TD

invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
As of Sat 21 Aug 2010 20:00:02Z
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
06L.SIX

NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere


Current Central/Eastern Pacific Tropical Systems
Tropical Depression 09E.NINE
Tropical Depression 08E

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
06L.SIX
East Pacific
09E.NINE
08E.EIGHT
Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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Quoting RedStickCasterette:


Ike is cool and a respected blogger on here. If you think that about Ike, lol, you have not seen anything yet!
LOL! I don't disrespect anything he's said! Just the way he's said it. That's all. I think, like I said, that the man is very very intelligent and very up on what he's doing. I don't question the package. Just the delivery.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
806. NASA101 1:03 PM PDT on August 21, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:



yup



Neither NHC nor NAVY site reports TD-6 so please quote your sources, thanks!!!





i do some in even better POOF


Dont poof him. He was just asking what the source was.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
It could be experiencing a rapid intensification



am thining the same thing
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822. xcool
invest_RENUMBER_al952010_al062010.ren
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Hey TAsmanian


how are you doing? I have seen you on here a lot more now, i have been reading more and posting less.

I am doing well in northern california. cool summer so far.

take care
all the best
Patrick
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that was fast from 30% too 60% too 100% now TD

:O OMG!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
It could be experiencing a rapid intensification
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Won't have a special advisory this close to an actual advisory package.


I know...checked the time a minute ago.
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806. NASA101 1:03 PM PDT on August 21, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:



yup



Neither NHC nor NAVY site reports TD-6 so please quote your sources, thanks!!!





i do some in even better POOF
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Huh, imagine that. People thought kman was crazy for calling for a TD tonight, people thought it would be sunday night, monday, or maybe even later. And it turns out kman was dead on, maybe even a tiny bit too late lol.
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815. xcool
i was rigth td6 .yayy anyway
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Taz- I see
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Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR loop



what ya lookin at pat hmmm
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Place your bets everybody!

Track similar to GFS ...

or more inline with GFStormW.


TVCN
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95L quicky became TD6!
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Quoting Patrap:
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Hold on Folks!
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looke like the mode runs are turning more W
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807. xcool
btwntx08 .YUP cold cold beer water in epac
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yup


Neither NHC nor NAVY site reports TD-6 so please quote your sources, thanks!!!
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Quoting Ryuujin:


Unless it's wrong. And I may be new here and this might be out of line...but you have a real smarmy, smart-aleck way about you that's extraordinarily off-putting. You might be the kindest, nicest person in the world, but IMHO you really come off as a wanna-be know it all jerk here. Especially when people disagree with your own evaluation of the situation.


Ike is cool and a respected blogger on here. If you think that about Ike, lol, you have not seen anything yet!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It'll show in a minute..This is what we call a Special Advisory


Won't have a special advisory this close to an actual advisory package.
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TD!
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Quoting IKE:


Sticking their faces in it? Whose face have I stuck in it?


StormW for one. Mississippi as well. I'm just stating my opinion, is all. Sorry to come off a bit abrasive myself Ike.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right on time...we got TD6 folks!



that was fast from 30% too 60% too 100% now TD
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Navy has it NHC will follow
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Taz, you are spot on!
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Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee,.......


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Blog--Blowup
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol..that is out of line. Ike and I have gotten into it a couple of times because I don't agree with the way he "downcasts", but Ike is a good person with good intentions. All he wants is for everyone to stay safe.


I do as well, but for a new person (IE, me) it just seems like that. Sorry if it seems harsh and I don't mean any harm by it whatsoever. I can tell he's very intelligent and very up on what he believes in. I just wish it would be transferred over in a more spirit of co-operational sort of way.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
do we have TD6?



yup
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794. IKE
Quoting Ryuujin:


Well I understand disagreement with the ways that it may or may-not be moving. I'm simply saying that every post I've seen of yours in the contrary is very self-serving and self-assured to the point of banality. You seem to get off on making sure other people are wrong and then sticking their faces in it. I /hope/ it goes out to see. I want it too, but I'm not naive enough to believe that any computer model no matter how extensive OR well planned and plotted will have control on exactly what weather will do.

That's why it's called Forecasting and Predicting, not Telling. It's the same adage with fishing, ironically enough.

If we knew it 100% of the time, it would simply be called 'catching'


Sticking their faces in it? Whose face have I stuck in it?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Right on time...we got TD6 folks!
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
my new video on the fish storm of invest 95L




LOL !!!!!!!
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I think we should post link if most don't see it on links we use.
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Quoting VAstorms:

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?


they will at the 5pm update, the atcf site is the first indication of an upgrade
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will am upgradeing too 100% that this will be TD 6 at 5
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Quoting VAstorms:

So why isn't NHC calling it a Td?


It'll show in a minute..This is what we call a Special Advisory
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do we have TD6?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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